CAN NAJIB SURVIVE 2015: Severe political & economic tests ahead after volatile 2014

Politics is full of changes. A few months ago, Prime Minister Datuk Seri Najib won applause when he used diplomacy to retrieve bodies of MH17 victims and black box while the pressure within the party had also been greatly reduced due to the Selangor menteri besar crisis. However, Najib is now facing another thorny problem.

Najib is currently facing a difficult situation with attacks from the party itself, as well as external problems.

Let's talk about pressure within the party first. Former prime minister Tun Dr Mahathir Mohamad had severely criticised Najib's administration on his blog in August this year, and declared the withdrawal of his support for Najib.

However, as Najib was strongly backed by Umno leaders, including deputy prime minister Tan Sri Muhyiddin Yassin, the attack did not bring much impact at that time.

Since then, Dr Mahathir has continued criticising Najib and "encouraged" central delegates to reprimand party leaders on the eve of the party's general meeting.

However, the delegates did not attack party leaders at the general meeting held last month. Meanwhile, Najib also announced the retention of the Sedition Act, helping him to defuse the pressure.

However, the plummeting international crude oil price has led to the plunge of the stock market, the ringgit and caused an economic downturn, thus offering an opportunity for the party's right-wingers to launch attacks.

History shows that Umno's stability is closely-related to the country's economic situation.

In the 1980s, the global recession hit the Malaysian economy and it was one of the reasons causing the outbreak of the Umno party struggle in 1987, when then Finance Minister Tengku Razaleigh Hamzah challenged Dr Mahathir for the party presidency.

The second year after the Asian financial crisis in 1997, Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim was sacked by Dr Mahathir, causing further political instability.

Of course, with Najib's current status in the party and his ability to firmly control the Supreme Council, it is believed that the storms in 1987 and 1998 would not be repeated at this stage. However, if the economy is not stabilised as soon as possible, it would leave the right-wingers an opportunity.

Dr Mahathir has pointed out Najib's mistakes, including catering to the "enemy's" requests, such as abolishing the Internal Security Act (ISA) and the Restricted Residence Act, as well as when negotiating with Singapore, Najib has also taken a self-dwarfing attitude.

It seems like Najib is wrong for not being "obedient", just like Tun Abdullah Badawi who scrapped the "crooked bridge" plan to replace the current Causeway between Malaysia and Singapore.

In addition, Datuk Seri Mukhriz Mahathir's defeat in party elections, as well as the formation of the Royal Commission of Inquiry on illegal immigrants in Sabah are believed to be the reasons triggering Dr Mahathir's dissatisfaction.

It is also worth noting that former New Straits Times editor-in-chief Datuk Abdul Kadir Jasin revealed that Dr Mahathir recently summoned the senior management of 1Malaysia Development Berhad (1MDB) and "interrogated" them.

A week later, on December 10, the Cabinet has also discussed 1MDB's problems at its weekly meeting, which was chaired by Muhyiddin. Najib was absent as he was on an official trip to South Korea.

Coincidentally, Batu Kawan Umno division deputy chief Datuk Seri Khairuddin Abu Hassan also lodged a police report against 1MDB. The 1MDB, burdened with debts to the tune of RM41.9 billion, might be a hot topic of the struggle within the party, particularly when national debt is high and the economy is facing a downturn.

In addition to pressure from party right-wingers, Najib also faces the "oversight" of right-wingers outside the party, particularly Perkasa and Ikatan Muslimin Malaysia (Isma), causing Umno not to return to the moderation line.

Meanwhile, liberal Malay elites are also pressuring Najib, requesting him to take action to suppress extremist groups and restore the spirit of moderation.

Najib has so far not yet responded to the request of the 25 prominent Malays. He is in a dilemma, but these senior officers are not only representing themselves, instead, they represent urban, young and progressive voters. The Barisan Nasional (BN) cannot afford losing these votes.

The "Pandora's box" has been opened and it is very difficult for the government to stop conservative thinking.

For instance, starting next year, all shopping malls in Terengganu will be ordered to close for two hours on Friday, while a Catholic priest in Muar, Johor, was detained for having 30 copies of a hymn book with the word Allah. These incidents will affect the BN's fight for swing votes.

In the midst of internal and external problems, if the economic climate outside does not improve and oil prices continue to fall, it would cause the government to lack the resources to implement its Bumiputera Economic Empowerment Plan, which would intensify Umno's infighting and make racial issues more acute.

Najib must show greater courage to overcome the severe test this time. – mysinchew.com