Chief Minister Tan Sri Adenan Satem, who is only one year into office, has zeroed in on illegal logging, which earned him praise from voters. – The Malaysian Insider file pic, March 15, 2015.
Cheng L. H. would not call herself an ardent DAP supporter and yet, has cast her vote for the Chinese-based party in her Sibu hometown in every election in Sarawak since she became eligible to vote.
“It’s not a case of me being a Chinese voting for a Chinese party. It's more about my own political philosophy of having a check and balance,” said the 44-year-old professional who works in Kuching.
However, her voting habit could change in the Sarawak elections that must be called before June next year.
“I've the itch to vote for BN,” she says, referring to Barisan Nasional, the coalition in federal power which has also ruled the Bornean state of Sarawak since 1963.
The reason for her change of mind is the state's Chief Minister Tan Sri Adenan Satem, who is only one year into office.
“He has made a big impression on me and, I believe, to many other Chinese since he took over the chief minister's post a year ago.
“In such a short time, he has shown what he can do for us and for our community, than what his predecessor (Tun Abdul Taib Mahmud) did,” Cheng said, citing the financial assistance given by the state government under Adenan to about a dozen Chinese independent schools.
Last year, Adenan gave RM3 million to those private schools in the state and this year increased the amount to RM4 million.
Adenan has also made the Chinese in Sarawak feel like they belonged instead of speaking of them as "pendatang" or immigrants, unlike the racial rhetoric by some Malay leaders in the peninsula.
“He has also initiated actions to fight corruption and illegal logging, which appeal to me and I believe he is a man who means business.”
Adenan may not have taken office with his own mandate, but Cheng said she was considering voting for him to "give him that mandate to see what else he could do in the next five years”.
But are Chinese voters as a whole as taken in by Adenan as Cheng is in the veteran politician’s short time at the helm of resource-rich Sarawak, which BN regards as its "fixed deposit" for votes?
The answer is both yes and no, according to political analyst Dr Arnold Puyok of Universiti Malaysia Sarawak.
“'Yes', they might like Adenan, but 'No' they might not vote for BN," he said.
“The Chinese might like Adenan but they might not vote for Chinese-based parties in BN due to infighting among Chinese BN leaders,” Puyok said of the political turmoil in the Sarawak United People's Party (SUPP), which had led to a splinter party called United People's Party (UPP).
SUPP is still in the BN coalition but UPP, which considers itself a pro-BN party, has been stalled in its attempts to join the coalition by political rivals.
“The Chinese find DAP still a better alternative because they speak eloquently and passionately about issues affecting the Chinese.
“If BN wants to win Chinese support, the Adenan factor alone is not enough.
“The Chinese-based state BN parties must also do their part,” Puyok said.
Puyok's peer in Unimas, Dr Jeniri Amir, shared the same opinion.
“The Chinese might be warming to Adenan but don't expect a major swing from them to BN in the elections.
“DAP will still retain all their 12 Chinese-majority seats and probably win the two or three seats they failed to win in the last election.
“However, they will win with a reduced majority. BN will reap some popular votes on the back of Adenan's popularity,” Jeniri said.
The two state seats which DAP has yet to seize are Bawang Assan, whose incumbent is UPP president Datuk Seri Wong Soon Koh, and Senadin where SUPP's Datuk Lee Kim Shin won by a mere 58 votes, beating PKR's Miri MP Dr Michael Teo in 2011.
Lee is the assistant minister of communications and assistant minister of sport in Adenan's cabinet.
One factor in Adenan and BN's favour is that the chief minister is "connected to the Chinese with his comments and actions” in a way that Taib, his predecessor who ruled Sarawak for 33 years, was not.
But, this could be negated by the protracted political feud between SUPP and UPP Chinese parties.
“BN is in a lose-lose situation here. No matter what BN does, there is a feeling that one party will sabotage the other (in the elections) in whatever solution the BN might have for them.
“If, say, BN decides that UPP should be given a seat to contest, I am sure SUPP would not be happy with having to give away one of their seats and would act to sabotage the UPP's candidate chance. The same would be the other way around.
“This will definitely favour DAP,” Jeniri said.
Dr James Chin, University of Tasmania's Asia Institute director, also shared Puyok and Jeniri's views that the Chinese would back DAP, but not on their reasons.
Chin said Chinese voters “think Adenan is just for show”.
“What he does like tackling corruption and illegal logging is just for show to win votes.
“What the Chinese cannot accept is that Taib got away with it,” he said in reference to the numerous corruption allegations against the former chief minister here and abroad.
“They see Adenan as not serious in his corruption fight if Taib is still there.”
After relinquishing his post, Taib was appointed as Sarawak's Yang Dipertua Negeri.
Though predicting strong support for DAP, the three analysts predicted the same outcome: BN will still win Sarawak with its two-thirds majority intact.
“BN has won the state elections already, even before polling day because of the structure of the electoral system,” said Chin.
“It is impossible to dislodge BN under the present system.”
DAP will take the Chinese-majority seats they contest in, and its opposition ally PKR could be wiped out, with the exception of the largely Chinese seat of Batu Lintang where its state vice-chairman See Chee How is assemblyman.
DAP is making an aggressive foray into Dayak seats, a source of the friction with PKR in the opposition coalition Pakatan Rakyat (PR).
DAP is using its socio-economic development programme "Impian Sarawak" to make inroads into these areas.
“They are working to win the Dayaks over because they believed (PKR state chairman) Baru Bian was not doing a good job for PR," said Chin.
But he believes it may not bear fruit for DAP, or PR as a whole. A lot of rural Dayak seats will likely be heavily contested – given Sarawak's fractious political landscape in both the ruling and opposition pacts – and this would not be in the opposition's favour.
“Four-cornered fights could be common with DAP, PKR, the official BN candidate and the unofficial pro-BN candidate all in the fray.”
In such a situation, Chin said the BN “will definitely” win.
- TMI
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