What’s at stake in Umno-PAS pact

Umno president Datuk Seri Najib Razak (left) is courting his PAS counterpart, Datuk Seri Abdul Hadi Awang, to ensure Barisan Nasional retains Putrajaya in the 14th general election. – The Malaysian Insider file pic, December 26, 2015.

An Umno-PAS collaboration can bring dividends to both Malay Muslim parties at a time when they both need a lifeline out of their biggest internal problems in recent memory.

Even the minimum level of cooperation – holding joint programmes – has allowed the presidents of both parties to burnish their scarred images.

Analysts outlined three scenarios of how this cooperation can take place and what’s in it for both parties as they pursue this initiative, which is the first in more than three decades.

If they manage to take their cooperation to its highest but riskiest point – by forming an electoral pact – it could be the lifeline that Umno needs to ensure Barisan Nasional, which it leads, retains Putrajaya in the 14th general election.

1. Sharing a stage   

The most basic level and abstract level would be for the senior leaders of both parties to hold joint programmes, such as the Al-Azhar alumni event on December 17 attended by Umno president Datuk Seri Najib Razak and his PAS counterpart, Datuk Seri Abdul Hadi Awang.

The last time something like this happened was in 2005 when Najib’s predecessor Tun Abdullah Ahmad Badawi met former PAS spiritual leader Datuk Nik Abdul Aziz Nik Mat during a working visit in Kelantan.

In 2002, then Umno president Tun Dr Mahathir Mohamad also shared the stage with former PAS president Datuk Fadzil Noor during a public talk on Palestine.

But at both events, the Umno president never broached the subject of unity.

This basic level of collaboration would already generate goodwill among many ordinary PAS and Umno members and non-partisan Malay Muslim voters, said independent pollster Ibrahim Suffian.

“It’s a very popular cause among many Malay Muslims to unite two rival Malay Muslim parties,” said Ibrahim, executive director of the Merdeka Center.

Najib’s ability to strengthen Umno-PAS ties would mute some of the criticism towards him from within Umno, said Ibrahim, and boost his popularity among some Malay Muslims.

The same thing also holds true for Hadi whose leadership of PAS has been criticised after an exodus of its most famous MPs and personalities to Parti Amanah Negara (Amanah).

“PAS is coming out of a crisis after losing members and its most famous and capable leaders,” said Mohamad Hisomuddin Bakar of the think-tank Ilham Centre.

2. Parliamentary support

This is already playing out in the Dewan Rakyat where some of the 14 PAS lawmakers are already showing that they can take sides not to antagonise BN.

When Budget 2016 was put to a vote, only three PAS MPs joined the opposition Pakatan Harapan coalition in opposing it. The other 11 followed the party’s orders and abstained.

The problem with abstaining in such a vote, said a Pakatan MP, was that it was as good as supporting BN since PAS did not join efforts to block the budget bill.

But a deeper and more important level of cooperation can be nurtured at this level. Influential Muslim scholars in PAS were offering opinions to justify PAS-Umno cooperation, said Hisomuddin.

Pakatan leaders also fear that PAS could in the future support more critical bills from BN.

A keen observer of opposition politics, Haron Mohd Yusof said in a commentary in The Malaysian Insider that this could include giving BN the two-thirds majority it needs to redraw electoral boundaries across the country.

Critics of past redelineation exercises said the parliamentary and state constituencies were shaped to suit BN’s strengths.

Sarawak Pakatan lawmakers earlier this year took the Election Commission to court over the redelineation exercise.

“History has proven that BN won big every time a redelineation took place. If the 14 PAS MPs support BN, (it) will have the two-thirds majority it needs (to pass the redelineation),” the commentary said.

3. Electoral pact  

An electoral pact, where PAS and Umno divide among themselves what seats to contest so that both can maximise victories, would be the ultimate form of cooperation, said Hisomuddin.

He said this was essentially the aim although neither party has admitted it as it was also the riskiest.

“The moment that an electoral pact is made clear, thousands of PAS members will leave their party for Amanah,” said Hisomuddin, who has studied the Islamist party extensively.

This is based on the “harumanis” theory, that there is a significant amount of PAS members who identify with Amanah’s ideals but who, for reasons of sentiment, can’t bring themselves to leave PAS.

A pact was likely, said Hisomuddin, because that was what Najib needed for BN to stay in power.

In GE14, there will be almost no non-Muslim votes for BN, he added.

Umno support in Johor and Sabah, which are two of its largest vote banks, is also threatened because of Najib’s feud with party deputy president Tan Sri Muhyiddin Yassin and vice-president Datuk Seri Mohd Shafie Apdal.

“He’s losing all these votes, so he needs to make them up from somewhere. That’s where PAS comes in.”

PAS holds 14 parliamentary seats. It contested 73 parliamentary seats in 2013, 90% of them against Umno candidates.

Similarly, PAS is seeing its grassroots in southern and west coast states leaving for Amanah or becoming inactive over disenchantment with its conservative leadership.

“(An electoral pact) is likely the end game though many PAS supporters don’t realise it,” said Hisomuddin.

- TMI