Analysts: Twin by-elections an indicator for BN’s 81 marginal seats

The coming twin by-elections for Sungai Besar and Kuala Kangsar could act as an indicator for the possible fate of 81 marginal constituencies out of 222 seats amid the ongoing 1MDB saga and RM2.6 billion political donation scandal in the next general, said Ibrahim Suffian, programme director of independent pollster Merdeka Centre.

Indeed, these controversial issues could be a referendum for Prime Minister Najib Abdul Razak’s approval and the support for the BN coalition that he leads, said the analyst.

“It is interesting to see if Umno can win in the two by-elections with current issues, included the controversial issues surrounding 1MDB, the RM2.6 billion donation, as well as the (slowing) economy that affect the people,” said Ibrahim.

“This can be seen as a bellwether of Umno’s strength in the numerous marginal seats in the country, including both Sungai Besar and Kuala Kangsar,” he said.

BN’s Noriah Kasnon won re-election in Sungai Besar with a majority of 399 votes, or less than one-percent of the voter total, in the 2013 general election. She was also plantation industries and commodities deputy minister.

BN’s Wan Mohammad Khair-il Anuar Wan Ahmad won Kuala Kangsar, an Umno stronghold seat, with a lesser majority of 1,082, or less than five percent, in the last polls.

There are a total of 81 marginal seats won by less than five percent by both sides of the divide in the last general election, where 51 seats are held by BN while 30 seats are controlled by the opposition, he told Malaysiakini.

The country is expecting the 10th and 11th by-election following the 2013 general election, following the May 5 helicopter crash that claimed the lives of six people, including Noriah and Khair-il.

The BN won a total of 133 parliamentary seats in the 2013 general election, but BN later defeated DAP in the Teluk Intan by-election, making it now 134 seats .

Agreeing with Ibrahim, an academician noted that the demographics of Sungai Besar and Kuala Kangsar are similar to most of the Umno’s traditional stronghold seats.

These are a combination of semi-urban and rural constituencies, which constitute of at least 60 percent or 70 percent of Malays voters, said Mohamed Mustafa Ishak, the head of political, security and international cluster of the National Council of Professors.

“This is a good indicator for Umno and BN to measure their support in their stronghold, whether 1MDB and RM2.6 billion (scandal) really gives an impact to them.

“It will be very bad for Umno if it fails to defend these seats,” he said, adding it would be an endorsement for the country’s biggest party if its candidates win overwhelmingly in the by-elections.

While the opposition failed in its attempt to use the May 7 Sarawak state polls as a referendum against Najib’s popularity, the analyst opined that the opposition will stand a better chance to harp on the same issue.

This is because, said political scientist Wong Chin Huat, BN does not have the ‘Adenan factor’ in the peninsular that was able to write off the Najib factor during last week’s state polls.

“Sarawak Chief Minister Adenan Satem managed to change the tide from referendum against Najib to the support for him,” said Wong, who is a fellow of the Penang Institute.

But given the clashes of how the opposition parties fought against each other in Sarawak poll, the analysts warned that this may be turned around and used to Najib’s benefit.

“Yes, they potentially can. But if they fail, they will strengthen the prime minister’s position and Umno’s,” said Ibrahim.

Opposition propaganda failure

His view was shared by Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia associate professor Mohd Faisal Syam Abdol Hazis, who advised the opposition not to repeat their propaganda failure during the Sarawak polls.

The opposition messages there were confusing and not consistent, for example when they wanted the state polls as a referendum against Najib and the Goods and Services Tax (GST), he said.

“They (said they) wanted a change in government, but they later said only wanted to deny a two-thirds majority,” he said.

“They only used Najib and GST as campaign agenda during the official campaign period, but based on our research, 85 percent to 90 percent of voters had made up their minds,” he stressed.

They need to construct their message in s persuasive way if they want to make the twin by-elections as a referendum against Najib, he said.

Agreeing, Wong emphasised that the issue now is how the opposition is going to persuade the voters to accept that this will be a referendum against Najib.

While acknowledging both 1MDB and political donations are old issues, political analyst Tang Ah Chai said the issues can still be used in the parties' propaganda in light of new developments.

According to him, the voters in the semi-urban of two constituencies may be familiar with these national issues.

“They can still bring up the new developments related to 1MDB, namely the default payment,” he added.

He, however said the two-months-old Save Malaysia movement may not gain traction in both constituencies, as the movement mainly attracted the urban middle class.

The BN candidates may receive certain amount of sympathy votes due to the helicopter crash, said Mustafa, but this may not ensure the victory of BN.

Beside these national scandals, Faisal believed the voters in general are concerned about development and bread and butter issues.

Tang also opined that the Chinese voters in both seats may demand that the government recognise the Unified Examination Certificate (UEC), a promise made during the Sarawak state polls.

The Star on Sunday quoted Deputy Education minister Chong Sin Woon as saying that now is the time for all stakeholders to work harder in the final leg, for the recognition to come true.

The Higher Education Ministry on Tuesday said that the government’s recognition of the Unified Examination Certificate (UEC) is still under discussion. -Mkini