The Chinese ballot and the bottom line

How seriously should we take the prediction that there'll be a sea change in the Chinese voting pattern in GE14?

COMMENT

Political and economic analyst Hoo Ke Ping predicts that Chinese businessmen will ditch the Opposition in the next general election in order to stave off the implementation of hudud a Umno-PAS union could bring about and in order to get the economy moving. This obviously comes as more bad news for Pakatan Harapan, which is battling not only the full election machinery of Barisan Nasional in Sarawak, but also the infighting between the state DAP and PKR.

According to Hoo, the “big time Chinese millionaires” encouraged small time businessmen to support the Opposition during the economic boom of the 1990s because they were making money anyway. However, the economic uncertainty of the last few years and the threat of an Umno-PAS liason is turning this sentiment around because businessmen will be businessmen and are ultimately concerned with their bottom line. The inability of the Opposition to offer stability despite the prosperity of Selangor and Penang has become their undoing in this difficult economic climate as that is when the rich are least favourable to the idea of change.

The threat of hudud is often used as a bogeyman, but the virtual abandoning of BN by the Chinese community in 2008 and 2013 has caused Umno to lean further right to capture the passionate conservative vote. Whether this will lead to enough leverage for PAS to broker a hudud deal is debatable, but certainly, the lack of a strong Chinese representation in the ruling coalition invites more space for the right-wing elements of Umno to sway ever further in their preferred direction.

However, after all is said and done, Umno is led by people of a more practical mindset than their PAS counterparts. While conservative laws may be passed as sweets to PAS, the likelihood of hudud is still remote.

Nonetheless, the threat of hudud and the current weakened state of the economy has apparently frightened the living daylights out of the richer elements of the Chinese business community. Such fears are not assuaged by pretty rhetoric, which is about all the Opposition has been offering so far. These businessmen are only being practical in light of the Opposition’s track record.

But then not all Chinese voters are millionaires, or even businessmen. What about the ordinary workers, the professionals and the youths? The truth is that it will be hard to convince them to return to BN through either MCA or Gerakan.

The success of the DAP has emboldened a large portion of the Chinese electorate, and striking a balancing act between the aspirations embodied in DAP and the need for a strong voice in our race-based government is the biggest challenge awaiting the community.

Either way, should the Chinese business community return to the bosom of BN and the professionals, workers and youths remain aligned with the Opposition, the next general election will be an interesting one to watch.