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Thursday, January 19, 2017

Rafizi's Invoke behind GE14 phone survey which caused alarm



BN is not behind a phone survey about voting preferences that set tongues wagging on social media for the past three weeks.

Instead, the survey, which asked respondents who they would vote for in the next election, was conducted by PKR vice-president Rafizi Ramli's Invoke Centre for Policy Initiatives (I-CPI).

The survey, which ran from Dec 25, 2016 to Jan 17 this year, sparked off concern among some respondents when they heard a recorded female voice asking them whether BN was to be blamed for the rising cost of living.

This was then followed by a question whether they would vote for BN, Pakatan Harapan and Parti Pribumi Bersatu Malaysia (Bersatu), or PAS, as well as questions about their race, gender and age.

Wary respondents assumed it was BN spying on them, and began spreading messages on social media and WhatsApp in various languages warning respondents to shut off their phones or risk having their names deleted from the electoral roll.

Despite this, the I-CPI team managed to get 104,340 respondents out of the 8.36 million numbers that they called.

'Analysts and pundits were wrong'

Rafizi said this was the most comprehensive survey of its kind in Malaysia, and showed that predictions that BN would win in the next election were not accurate.

"A lot of political analysts and pundits made comments without being on the ground.

"Even in a three-corner fight, at the rate that Prime Minister Najib Abdul Razak is going, there is a chance that he will lose," he told Malaysiakini.

Among the survey findings was that overall, 41 percent of respondents would vote for BN, Harapan and Bersatu 24 percent, and PAS 21 percent. Fourteen percent of respondents said they would not vote.

It also found that only four out of 10 Malay voters surveyed would vote for BN in a three-corner fight.

Simulations it ran also predicted that if Harapan and Bersatu can win over sympathetic PAS supporters, obtain Chinese support similar to GE13 levels, and convince those who did not vote to cast their ballots, the opposition coalition may win the next polls.

Invoke chief strategic officer Shaun Kua however noted that because the survey was conducted in Malay, added with speculation that it was being run by BN, the results among Chinese and Indian voters may be skewed.

"We found that the Chinese would give lower support to us when the survey was conducted in Malay.

"This could be due to multiple factors, one of them being concerns that it was a BN survey," he said.

To overcome this, Kua said I-CPI would run another survey in Mandarin and Tamil in the next few weeks.

He also said to keep the survey accurate, they weeded out those who answered randomly by checking whether their responses were coherent.

He said they also adjusted the targeted respondents who would be called each day, so as to reflect the same percentage breakdown in the electoral roll.

According to the Invoke survey, data obtained from the Election Commission and other sources said that 59 percent of voters in Malaysia were Malay, Chinese 25 percent, Indians seven percent, and Sabah and Sarawak Bumiputera eight percent.-Mkini

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