LOW morale and dimming chances of a Barisan Nasional (BN) revival will in time cost Umno more lawmakers and weaken its ability to bounce back after its historic defeat in the 14th general election, analysts said.
They said Bagan Serai MP Noor Azmi Ghazali’s decision to quit BN reflected the level of morale in its lynchpin party Umno just a week ahead of party polls.
If Umno and BN do not contain the ripples from this episode, it will likely lose more elected representatives and members.
“If they do not do anything, their branches and members will shrink and leave the party,” said the Ilham Centre’s executive director, Hisommudin Bakar.
“It’s just a matter of whether it happens sooner or later.”
Noor Azmi had yesterday declared his allegiance to Prime Minister Dr Mahathir Mohamad and Perak Menteri Besar Ahmad Faizal Azumu.
Noor Azmi did not state a reason for leaving Umno but said he would remain an independent MP.
Noor Azmi became the third elected BN representative in Perak to switch sides after two state assemblymen – Zainol Fadzi Paharudin (Sungai Manik) and Nolee Ashilin Mohammed Radzi (Tualang Sekah) – did so a week after GE14.
His decision came a day after BN component party Gerakan announced it was leaving the coalition and two weeks after BN lost its Sarawak partners.
His defection also comes at a time when BN could have garnered political capital by criticising the Pakatan Harapan government’s policy missteps and its inability to fulfil its election pledges.
Dr Mazlan Ali of Universiti Teknologi Malaysia (UTM) said that Noor Azmi’s decision reflected the low morale within Umno.
“This is despite the fact that the party’s leaders are promising reforms and rejuvenation,” said the political science lecturer.
“It also shows that Umno members and leaders are more confident in Dr Mahathir than they are in their own leaders,” said Mazlan.
“Many of these members feel that Umno is getting weaker and is unable to rebuild.”
Umno, which has 53 MPs after Noor Azmi’s resignation, is holding its party’s polls on June 30, and has seen leaders campaigning on promises to rebuild and revive the party.
The defection will make this revival harder for BN, as it grapples with the loss of Gerakan and its four Sarawak BN parties, said Universiti Malaya’s Dr Awang Azman Awang Pawi.
The bleeding in BN also comes at a time when it could have taken advantage of the fact that voters have started to question PH’s ability to deliver on its promises, he said.
PH had won on an ambitious campaign to reform institutions, stamp out corruption and most importantly for consumers, bring down living costs and increase wages.
It also promised to offer free education at public universities, improve the government healthcare system and bring down highway toll charges.
But after discovering that the country owed debtors RM1 trillion in borrowings, the administration has been forced to scale back and review its policies.
“In these past two months, we’ve seen PH depend on generating anger towards BN by announcing all these scandals. There’s also the issue of it not being able to fulfil its 100-day pledges.”
These issues could have been used by BN to revive support but the coalition appears to still be on the defensive, said Awang Azman.
“The effect is that BN members will lose hope in their leaders’ abilities to revive Umno and BN, and they will start thinking of leaving.”
Asyraf Wajdi’s win bodes well for Zahid’s presidency bid, say analysts
THERE are two ways to see Dr Asyraf Wajdi Dusuki’s narrow win in the Umno Youth chief contest.
One, it augurs well for Ahmad Zahid Hamidi in the five-horse race for the presidency this week, as Asyraf is seen as a proxy of the veteran leader.
Two, presidential aspirant Khairy Jamaluddin’s ambition is suffering a setback as his nominal successor, Senator Khairul Azwan Harun, has lost, a portent that his camp is not as popular as expected in the aftermath of the May 9 polls defeat.
“The slim win by Asyraf means that the delegates want someone free from (former) Youth chief Khairy’s influence,” Universiti Malaya political analyst Professor Dr Awang Azman Awang Pawi told The Malaysian Insight.
He said Asyraf, who hails from Kelantan, highlights the strengths of Zahid and Annuar Musa, who is going for the post of deputy president.
International Islamic University Malaysia (IIUM) political science lecturer Tunku Mohar Tunku Mohd Mokhtar said Khairul Azwan’s loss means that Khairy’s influence is not as widespread in the party as initially thought.
“One way to interpret the results of the Youth wing’s elections is to attribute it to experience. If this is the trend for the larger Umno elections, then Zahid may have a very good chance.”
Asyraf was an economics lecturer at IIUM before he became a senator in 2014. A year later, he was made a deputy minister in the Najib Razak administration, assisting then minister Jamil Khir Baharom in Islamic affairs.
In the 14th general election, Asyraf lost to PAS’ Nik Zawawi Salleh by 1,360 votes in the contest for the Pasir Puteh federal seat.
Last year, he courted controversy when he declared that atheism in Malaysia was unconstitutional, and reported to Parliament that the government had failed to get Facebook to shut down the Atheist Republic page.
Although there are no official camps in this year’s Umno elections, the Youth contest could be viewed as as a proxy war, where Asyraf was seen as being backed by Zahid, and Khairul Azwan an ally of Khairy.
The third candidate in the race for the Youth top post, Shahar Abdullah, was speculated to have the backing of former Umno president Najib.
Asyraf defeated four other candidates by securing 65 out of the 191 divisional votes. Khairul Azwan had 62, while Pahang Youth chief Shahar received 51. Sungai Besar Umno division chief Jamal Md Yunos got only two votes, and Wan Agyl Wan Hassan received none.
Last night, Shahril Sufian Hamdan, a close aide of Khairy, beat Bastien Onn for the post of deputy Youth chief. Bastien was an adviser to veteran Umno leader Tengku Razaleigh Tengku Hamzah, who is also gunning for the presidency this Saturday.
Bersatu strategist Dr Rais Husin said he feels that the Umno Youth polls results are good for the wing and party.
“Asyraf’s credentials are impeccable, though he did not raise an alarm over Najib’s indiscretions earlier. But, Asyraf and his deputy, Shahril, are a good pairing,” said the former Umno leader.
“Both have their respective strengths, and complete and complement each other.”
Rais said if Umno is to have any chance of staging a comeback from the GE14 thrashing, the party needs fresh ideas, adding that it is too close to call which candidate has the upper hand in the presidential race.
“This (change) can only come from Khairy, and it is not impossible for that to happen.”
Tunku Mohar agreed, saying while Zahid currently has the advantage, a lot can change in a week’s time.
“The votes may still swing.
“The candidates must position themselves as the better person to lead the party.” – https://www.themalaysianinsight.com
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