Five Years Is A Long Time, Rafizi

Without a doubt Barisan Nasional is no longer going to exist in 2023; which is good. The 2018 Umno is also not going to exist in 2023; which is also good. Mahathir will most likely also not exist in 2023. Hadi Awang may not want to continue to lead PAS in 2023 even if he is still alive. Azmin Ali may be PKR’s President and the Prime Minister of Malaysia in 2023. Khairy Jamaluddin will most likely be the Umno President and Opposition Leader in 2023.

THE CORRIDORS OF POWER

Raja Petra Kamarudin

The 1999 general election was an anti-Mahathir campaign just like 2018 was an anti-Najib campaign

“Rafizi: We’ll get Kelantan, Terengganu next time”, was the headlines in Bernama yesterday and Free Malaysia Today this morning (READ HERE).

Actually, that is just idle talk — like Rafizi promised the GST would be removed on 10th May 2018 (but was removed on 1st June 2018 instead), and would be replaced by the SST (which will be done only in September), and the price of petrol would be reduced to RM1.50 (but was actually increased instead, and will remain till the end of 2018 or longer), that Najib Tun Razak would be arrested and jailed on 10th May 2018 (but Tun Dr Mahathir Mohamad said they are still searching for the evidence to make the case against Najib stick), etc.

Yes, it is easy to talk but not so easy to do. And now Rafizi says in 2023 Pakatan Harapan is going to wrest Terengganu and Kelantan from PAS.

Let’s get real, 2023 is five years away, and in five years many things can happen (there may even be war in the South China Sea by then). So Rafizi needs to lower his sights and tone down a bit. What were the factors that allowed Pakatan Harapan to win GE14 on 9th May 2018 and will those factors still exist?

This was the main election poster in November 1999, and it was effective

In November 1999, or GE10, the one BIGGEST factor (of course, there were other ‘side’ factors as well) was Anwar Ibrahim’s black eye or mata lebam and the anti-Tun Dr Mahathir Mohamad sentiment. That was why we used the mata lebam logo and Anwar’s poster as the main election poster plus the ‘Undur Mahathir’ slogan as the war-cry.

And it worked. GE10 in November 1999 saw the opposition Barisan Alternatif make inroads and in GE11 in 2004 they were expected to take over the federal government from Barisan Nasional.

But the factors changed. What existed in 1999 no longer existed in 2004. And GE11 was a disaster for the opposition, the worst election ever in history.

Mahathir handed power to Pak Lah four months before GE11 in March 2004 — if not Umno and Barisan would have been wiped out

One thing that changed was Mahathir very cleverly retired and handed power to Tun Abdullah Ahmad Badawi (Pak Lah) four months before the general election.

That was something we discussed back in 2001 and we knew if Mahathir retired and Pak Lah took over we would be in serious trouble. Mahathir was seen as the ‘Father of Corruption’ while Pak Lah was called ‘Mister Clean’.

And it happened and we did not prepare for it. So, we ‘died’.

The second serious problem was that the 1999 general election was a coalition of four parties: PKN, PAS, DAP and PRM. In 2004, it was a coalition of just two parties: PKR and PAS.

In 1999, DAP told the Chinese they can trust Fadzil Noor but in 2004 DAP said they must not trust Hadi Awang

The PAS President in 1999 was Ustaz Fadzil Muhammad Noor while the PAS President in 2004 was Ustaz Abdul Hadi Awang. The non-Muslims (and many Muslims as well) viewed Fadzil Noor as a liberal Muslim while Hadi Awang was viewed as a conservative Muslim. They could accept a PAS under Fadzil Noor but feared a PAS under Hadi Awang.

So, many who voted PAS in 1999 would not vote PAS in 2004.

Basically, the 1999 general election was an anti-Mahathir election and once Mahathir left in 2003 there was no longer any reason to vote opposition in 2004.

Now, what was the May 2018 general election or GE14 all about?

GE14 in May 2018 was an anti-Najib-anti-Rosmah hate-campaign

First it was about Najib Tun Razak and Rosmah Mansor. Mahathir and Pakatan Harapan very cleverly and successfully built up the hatred towards these two people. That hate-campaign actually started in 2008 before Najib became Prime Minister and ten years later by 2018 it had peaked. It was exactly like what Hitler did in 1933 and five years later the hate had peaked and the Nazis managed to sweep Germany.

Okay, the 2018 general election was an anti-Najib election just like the 1999 general election was an anti-Mahathir election. But in the next general election in 2023 it is not going to be Najib who leads Umno or Barisan Nasional (just like in the 2004 general election it was not Mahathir who led Umno and Barisan Nasional).

Now, is Barisan Nasional and Pakatan Harapan still going to exist in 2023? For sure the Umno of 2023 is not going to be the Umno of 2018. Who is going to be the Umno President in 2023? Barisan Nasional is now more or less just Umno. The Sabah and Sarawak parties have abandoned Barisan Nasional. PPP and Gerakan have abandoned Barisan Nasional. Now we need to see MCA and MIC leave and Barisan Nasional will be just Umno.

Barisan Nasional will be long dead and buried by 2023

Without a doubt Barisan Nasional is no longer going to exist in 2023; which is good. The 2018 Umno is also not going to exist in 2023; which is also good. Mahathir will most likely also not exist in 2023. Hadi Awang may not want to continue to lead PAS in 2023 even if he is still alive. Azmin Ali may be PKR’s President and the Prime Minister of Malaysia in 2023. Khairy Jamaluddin will most likely be the Umno President and Opposition Leader in 2023.

Azmin and Khairy are able to see eye-to-eye so the chances of PKR and Umno doing a deal is pretty good. Say Nik Aziz’s or Hadi’s son is the President of PAS by 2023, then the chances of a PKR, Umno and PAS alliance is also pretty good.

For sure Barisan Nasional would have been closed down long before 2023. And the chances of Pakatan Harapan also being closed down before 2023 is very high because DAP does not really like Mahathir and Mahathir also does not like DAP. There is no way Mahathir and DAP can continue with this marriage for five years until 2023.

And Mahathir and Anwar Ibrahim also hate each other. So, Mahathir will want Azmin to take over PKR and kill off the Anwar political dynasty. And once that happens, Rafizi is also going to be buried alongside Anwar, Dr Wan Azizah Wan Ismail and Nurul Izzah.