"Umno's survival now depends on Dr Mahathir’s next moves" - By Leslie Lopez.

*After election defeat, Umno faces existential crisis*

Leslie Lopez

Regional Correspondent

In KL.

Malaysia’s former DPM Zahid Hamidi spent last week (beginning June 10) in Mecca, performing prayers during Ramadan.

also found time in Islam’s holiest city to hunker down with advisors and political lieutenants for deep discussions - on comeback strategies for  Umno, after disastrous performance in elections that brought an end to its reign since 1957.

Those present argued party’s comeback possible. Umno won 54 seats, single-largest party in the lower house.

also favourite among ethnic Malays, who make up close to 65% of population.

Umno secured 2.54 million of the Malay votes 

just over 40% of Malay vote

remainder evenly split between Pakatan Harapan and PAS

Umno suffered major slippage in Malay vote because of 1MDB 
community’s disapproval of Najib 
coalition partners in (BN) also did not deliver

MCA MIC wiped out 
partners in Sabah and Sarawak suffered unexpected losses

Zahid camp concluded Umno need to  build on its still-sizeable Malay support

Easier said than done. In fact, the odds are stacked against Umno, a monolithic party bereft of any checks and balances, and one that is finding itself out of step with a new Malaysia.

party does not have charismatic leader to replace scandal-scarred Najib

Zahid does not command wide respect within party ranks 
internal feuding among veteran warlords unlikely to give way to younger blood

big question whether Umno can hold grassroots support

Umno billed itself protector of Malay race, Islam and nine Royal households
symbols that distinguish community’s special position in Malaysia

Last month’s election results showed that fewer Malays are falling for the hype, particularly the younger voters who do not have any in-built loyalty to the party.

The party’s elitist tendencies have also widened the disconnect with rural Malays, who previously threw their support behind Umno.

• Umno’s grip on power rested on ability to dispense patronage
• upper levels of Malay elite through special contracts
• govt licences, lucrative-pays at state-controlled entities 
• monthly stipends to religious clerics and village headmen in the rural areas.

That luxury was snatched away when Umno lost power at the federal level.

only controls Perlis and Pahang, non powerhouses, rely heavily on federal funding

Pakatan Harapan already culling Umno appointees at govt and state entities 
CEOs of govt-linked companies supportive of Najib administration

prospect of purge likely force Umno supporters to  switch sides, protect livelihood

Umno’s internal finances are also in shambles.

party’s financial assets, held by little-known Temasek Padu Sdn Bhd
do not generate enough returns to fund party’s basic needs

Umno needs roughly RM4m (S$1.35m) a month for 191 divisions 
barely covered by RM12 million annually from returns on its investments

Umno covered financial shortfalls with patronage-driven brand of politics
blur lines between state assets and party assets 

new govt to investigate whether Umno received monies from 1MDB

this could result in freezing of assets of organisations and politicians involved

Ironically for Umno, party’s survival now depends on Dr Mahathir’s next moves.

ljlopez@sph.com.sg