BN winning the Tanjung Piai by-election with big majority last week does not mean that they would achieve the same result in the next general election, said Ilham Centre head of research Mohd Yusri Ibrahim.
He said the situation in a by-election is different from the general election, which involves a much larger number of voters.
Voters include those from the middle and high-income groups who would take into account national issues like the ongoing trials against former prime minister Najib Abdul Razak and his former deputy Ahmad Zahid Hamidi.
Ahmad Zahid is the current Umno president, succeeding Najib who is now the chairperson of BN advisory board.
"In the general election, they (voters) choose for the country. They vote to give mandate to a government that would administer the country for them. This is especially the middle class and above, they do not give their votes based on the small matters.
"They vote for bigger ideas," he said during a seminar that discussed the aftermath of Tanjung Piai by-election, held at the University Malaya today.
The by-election on Nov 16 saw BN candidate Wee Jeck Seng (above, centre) garnering a total of 25,466 votes, defeating Harapan's Karmaine Sardini with 15,086 majority.
"Although 15,000 difference was a big gap, but it is not a main indicator that BN would be able to recapture Putrajaya easily. There would be more 'games' that would happen after this," said Yusri.
He said national issues related to BN top leaders abuse of power raised in Tanjung Piai did not work as the voters were choosing based on local issues that were directly affecting them.
"During by-election, the voters choose based on the situation there. They vote for their voices to be heard there and then.
"So any disgruntle, anything they are not comfortable with would be translated in the by-election. They do not care (about national issues) as there would be no change of government.
"In the case of a by-election, the issues of Najib and Zahid's trials are not relevant. But when it comes to the general election, these issues will be relevant again.
"If Zahid continues to be at the helm of BN or Muafakat Nasional, or dubbed to be the next prime minister, then the middle-class people would think whether they want to give their votes for him to lead Malaysia?"
For the record, Najib is now facing three trials related to 1MDB, while Zahid is facing a total of 47 charges involving millions of ringgit from Yayasan Akalbudi funds.
The landslide victory of BN in the by-election was also derived from full support by PAS, as the Islamist party had ordered its members to vote for Wee, who is from MCA.
PAS president Abdul Hadi Awang had also called the by-election win as a victory of Muafakat Nasional, referring to the cooperation agreement between Umno and PAS signed on Sept 13.
Yusri said he did not see any indication that Chinese voters who threw their votes to BN in Tanjung Piai were actually supporting the coalition or Muafakat Nasional.
He said they did so to express their dissatisfaction towards the present government.
Elaborating to reporters later, Yusri said the Chinese in Tanjung Piai felt that the situation today was not conducive for business.
"The Chinese are very concerned about business. So if there is a problem with doing business, they will blame the government.
"So that's what happened in Tanjung Piai and this was translated into votes," he said.
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