Behind BN's glossy win, cracks emerge in its rural strongholds

BN sweeping 21 out of 28 seats in last Saturday's (Nov 20) Malacca polls have been described as a "landslide" and rightly so in terms of seat numbers, allowing the coalition to gain a two-thirds majority.

Public attention has largely focussed on the lashing Pakatan Harapan received after ceding 10 out of the 15 seats it won in 2018 and a BN resurgence which has spurred its confidence and started discussions of an early general election.

But beyond BN's glossy win, the Malacca polls have also given insights into the country's changing political landscape.

PN, in particular, despite only picking up two seats in the Malacca polls, was able to challenge BN in some parts of the rural Malay heartland unlike any other rivals have in the past.

Of the seven state seats that have 80 percent Malays or more, BN's vote share declined between 3.25 percent to 15.98 percent in five of them.

As a result, PN came very close to capturing the BN strongholds of Serkam and Tanjung Bidara, which Umno narrowly retained with a 79-vote majority and 364-vote majority respectively.

PN also pulled off a surprise win in Sungai Udang where 42 percent of the registered voters are police personnel, army personnel and their spouses.

In the past, army camps were considered a BN fixed deposit and used to tilt certain constituencies in their favour during the redefinition exercise.

If PN, which was only formally registered last year, is able to sustain the momentum and continue to chip at these BN strongholds, the latter could lose its last safe haven, setting the table for a fierce contest.

PN challenges Umno's dominion

"PN has done exceptionally well in Malacca instead of a bad defeat as framed by some analyses.

"PAS has little presence from Negeri Sembilan southwards and most don't believe that Bersatu can survive without Harapan and former Bersatu chairperson Dr Mahathir Mohamad.

"More than winning two seats, PN has established itself as Umno’s number one alternative in Tanjung Bidara, Telok Mas and many other Malay-majority constituencies," said Essex-trained political scientist Wong Chin Huat.

Awang Azman Awang Pawi, an associate professor with Universiti Malaya's Department of Sociocultural, Academy of Malay Studies, also noted the popular vote among the three coalitions to be quite near to each other, despite BN's two-thirds majority.

"Even though BN won big, but in terms of the popular vote share, they are quite close. Around 3 percent (Between BN and Harapan)," he said.

He estimated that BN received 38.41 percent of the popular vote followed by Harapan at 35.81 percent, PN at 24.32 percent and other candidates at 1.46 percent.

However, PN's rise in the rural Malay heartland to give BN a run for its money has rendered Harapan almost irrelevant in some of these areas.

For example, the Harapan candidate garnered an embarrassing 489 votes in Tanjung Bidara (94 percent Malays), losing his deposit. BN and PN received 3,559 votes and 3,195 votes respectively, a 364 votes difference.

The fierce contest in Tanjung Bidara between Bersatu's Mas Ermieyati Samsuddin, who was also PN's chief ministerial candidate and BN's Ab Rauf Yusoh who is the state Umno chief, was in stark contrast to the 2018 general election.

In 2018, BN won the constituency with 58.15 percent of the votes, considered Umno's safest seat in Malacca.

Harapan also lost its deposit in Ayer Limau (92 percent Malays) where it only received 798 votes.

Harapan's base intact but disillusioned

BN's vote share actually increased in mixed seats, some of which Umno's allies MCA (Machap Jaya and Kelebang) and MIC (Gadek) were able to wrest away from Harapan.

BN's improved vote share was not so much that non-Malay voters had returned to the coalition's fold but rather the fact that they decided not to vote, thus inflating BN's vote share.

Kota Laksamana and Bandar Hilir, the two seats with the largest proportion of non-Malay voters (83 percent), serve as a good gauge of their sentiment.

The turnout rates in these two seats were the lowest in the entire state, at 58.08 percent and 56.24 percent respectively, below the state average of 65.85 percent.

The turnout rate in both seats during the 2018 general was around 85 percent.

Despite the turnout rates in Kota Laksamana and Bandar Hilir plummeting in these two seats, DAP still won with more than 80 percent of the votes.

In Kota Laksamana, DAP won 81.68 percent of the votes in 2018 and received 80.82 percent in last Saturday's election.

In Bandar Hilir, it received 83.05 percent of the votes in the last general election and received 81.19 percent of the votes in the snap polls.

This suggests that non-Malay voters who still decided to vote largely stuck with Harapan.

But the large number who didn't vote - around a third of those who did in the 2018 general election, caused Harapan to suffer in key mixed seats.

Changing game in mixed seats

A myriad of reasons contributed to the low turnout - Safety concerns due to the Covid-19 pandemic, disappointment among Harapan's voter base that the coalition failed to act swiftly and decisively until its collapse as the federal government in 2020 and the decision to field Umno defectors as Harapan candidates.

Umno defectors Idris Haron and Nor Azman Hassan were also decisively defeated in Asahan and Pantai Kundor respectively.

UM's Awang Azman estimated that Harapan's votes could increase by around seven percent if not for the above factors.

If non-Malay turnout was closer to 80 percent, Kelebang, Pengkalan Batu, Paya Rumput, Duyong and Machap Jaya would also be within Harapan's realistic reach.

In particular, Harapan lost Duyong and Pengkalan Batu by only 200 and 131 votes respectively.

However, even if the turnout among non-Malay voters return to 80 percent level and Harapan doubles its seats to 10, it will still be short of the 15 needed for a majority.

This is in part due to PN pulling anti-BN Malay voters away from Harapan.

Furthermore, PN's strategy of fielding a Malay candidate in seats where BN and Harapan put a non-Malay has also been effective to an extent.

For example, PN managed to pick up Bemban, a Malay-majority seat with a substantial non-Malay population, with 4,211 votes. BN received 3,883 votes while Harapan came in third with 3,095 votes. Independent candidates got 980 votes.

PN's emergence threatened to erode BN's stranglehold on the Malay rural heartland while at the same time changed the game in mixed seats where even a small swing can easily tilt the results in the favour for one of the three major coalitions.

BN's PAS trigger to break PN

BN, however, could seek to dilute PN's attempt to expand its influence by continuing to lobby PAS to switch sides.

A BN-PAS alliance would significantly consolidate their position and isolate Bersatu, leaving it with only Gerakan and its limited electoral influence to give PN a symbolic multi-racial appearance.

Even during the state polls, some PAS grassroots had complained about confusing directives on whether to back Umno or Bersatu, suggesting some central leaders have been working to undermine PAS president Abdul Hadi Awang.

Abdul Hadi Awang has stubbornly decided to stick with Bersatu under the PN banner despite popular sentiment among party grassroots wanting to cooperate with Umno.

Going against the PAS president is frowned upon in the Islamist party and those who have shown even the slightest public defiance were purged from the leadership during the party polls early this month.

Among them include Nik Abduh Nik Abdul Aziz, who congratulated BN for its victory in the Malacca polls, and with a hint of sarcasm, conveyed condolences to his own party.

PAS failed to win any seats in the Malacca polls although it came close to capturing Serkam, losing by only 79 votes.

Universiti Teknologi Malaysia geostrategist Azmi Hassan concurred that there will now be stronger attempts to get PAS to ditch Bersatu in favour of Umno.

"If PAS returns to its alliance with Umno under Muafakat Nasional, then it will force Bersatu to rethink the relevance of PN... There is a big likelihood that PN without PAS will be irrelevant," he said.

He added that Bersatu would unlikely return to Harapan's fold but could become a junior partner in Muafakat Nasional under Umno's domination.

Although, to date, Umno has shown a preference of eliminating its splinter party Bersatu completely.

Harapan’s anti-BN card wanes

For Harapan, it can no longer attract Malay support by only playing on the anti-BN and anti-establishment sentiment as they now have PN as an alternative.

"Harapan's viability as a multiethnic bloc is called into question after PKR lost all its seats and Amanah won only one.

"If nothing changes before the 15th general election, it can easily be framed as a DAP Plus coalition by its enemies.

"Now Harapan needs to move forward and build a social coalition that can carry it in the 15th general election instead of just counting on anti-Umno or anti-PN sentiments," said Wong.

Wong said Harapan now needs to find a way to offer a clear policy agenda that can not only retain its non-Muslim and liberal base but also attract enough middle-ground Malay-Muslim voters.

"The truth is, at least for Harapan supporters, the game of 'anger mobilisation' is over.

"Harapan's 'backdoor government' narrative and obsession of 'restoring the 14th general election' mandate were also pronounced dead," he said.

Wong also noted that the leadership of Anwar, who strongly defended the decision to field Umno defectors as Harapan candidates, is now called into question.

This was on top of his already eroding credibility from repeatedly claiming to command the majority to take over the federal government but failing to deliver.

Pushing Ismail Sabri over the edge

However, Wong cautioned Harapan against trying to terminate the memorandum of understanding (MOU) with the federal government, which will only force Prime Minister Ismail Sabri Yaakob to expedite the general election at a time when the coalition is still struggling.

Ismail Sabri had favoured a BN-PN alliance for the Malacca polls but was overruled by his Umno boss Ahmad Zahid Hamidi, who is now more emboldened after the strategy for BN to go solo in the Malacca polls paid off.

"Ismail Sabri will be more sandwiched between Umno and Bersatu but if he is smart, he won't cave in for an early election.

"That would likely spell the end of his premiership because Zahid would control the list of candidates and ex-prime minister Najib Abdul Razak would likely be the 10th prime minister.

"Ismail Sabri now has a stronger incentive to make the MOU work. To his advantage, Harapan (89 seats) and PN (50 seats) won't want an immediate 15th general election and the public is tired of having another election even though the Malacca polls, fortunately, has not caused a spike in cases," he said.

Under the MOU, Ismail Sabri's government had pledged not to call the general election until July 31, 2022 so that there can be enough time for the promised reforms to be implemented.

UM's Awang Azman gave a different take, stating that the MOU was tying Harapan's hands.

However, he echoed the view that the Malacca polls outcome has consolidated the position of Najib, Zahid and Umno deputy president Mohamad Hasan, all of whom were deeply involved in the state election.

"Looking at how Zahid and Najib were previously ridiculed by their opponents and even Umno members themselves, their group is now stronger within Umno," he said.

Ismail Sabri's seniors in Umno are now nudging him to expedite the general election.

Mohamad said he had communicated the matter to Ismail Sabri, stressing that BN was now in a better electoral position.

Succession plan

All three analysts - Awang Azman, Azmi and Wong - believe that the Malacca episode has further eroded Anwar's credibility and Harapan needs to start thinking of a succession plan.

"Anwar's leadership is again called into question. Some pro-Mahathir opinion leaders would push for his return, or more appealing, Shafie as his proxy.

"But both are political gamblers and neither can fix the fundamental problem of Harapan.

"The most realistic solution might be a two-step transition, with Anwar's bowing out only in the second step.

"The first step is to form a shadow cabinet that can offer a collective leadership for its 89 MPs and effective policy competition to BN and PN," said Wong.

"PKR's defeat in all its seats is a lesson for Anwar to listen to the grassroots voices.

"Accepting Idris Haron was a major mistake which did not help and instead contributed to PKR's defeat.

"(Younger PKR leaders such as) Nurul Izzah Anwar and Rafizi Ramli need to be given a more major role in PKR to consolidate the party," said Awang Azman.

The Malacca polls last Saturday concluded with Umno picking up 18 seats while MCA getting two and MIC winning one for a total of 21 under BN's belt.

In Harapan, DAP only managed to retain four of its eight incumbent seats, Amanah kept one of two while PKR was wiped out, losing all three seats it won in 2018. PN picked up two. - Mkini