Malacca polls a silver lining for Pakatan Harapan

MP SPEAKS | The recent Malacca state election results, where the BN won 21 out of 28 state seats (75 percent), is a disappointing outcome to many Pakatan Harapan supporters and even some neutral observers who do not want to see a return of a dominant BN/Umno in the Malaysian political landscape.

The outcome was not exactly unexpected, given the unique circumstances of this state election – the circumstances surrounding the sudden collapse of the state government, the low turnout rate, the inability to hold ceramah sessions, the low public interest in the campaign and fears surrounding the Covid-19 pandemic.

However, there are some silver linings for Pakatan Harapan, which can be used as lessons to build the momentum for the more important electoral battle, which is the 15th General Election.

Firstly, the return of BN/Umno’s electoral dominance is widely exaggerated. While BN may have won 21 out of 28 state seats, its vote share barely changed. Most of the initial analysis showed that BN’s vote share only increased marginally, by one percent at most.

One analysis by Malaysiakini showed that BN’s vote share increased by only 0.6 percent, from 37.8 percent to 38.4 percent. The first-past-the-post (FPTP) electoral system gave the BN an electoral advantage, especially in the smaller, more rural constituencies, but the BN’s vote share of less than 40 percent means that with a larger turnout and more younger voters in the context of a national campaign, relatively small shifts in its support could lead to the BN losing many seats in a general election.

Secondly, Perikatan Nasional (PN) poses a real and credible threat to the BN. While PN only won two state seats, it garnered almost 25 percent of the total votes cast, up from the 10.7 percent that PAS won by itself in the 14th General Election in 2018.

Some hope for the PN

This means that the PN has some hope of gaining further electoral ground against BN/UMNO in the next general election. More importantly, this will prevent the internal narrative from within PAS to abandon PN and to work with BN/Umno from gaining more momentum, which surely would have happened if PN failed to win any seat and managed only to win less than 20 percent of the popular vote.

My colleague, Liew Chin Tong, used the “Rise of the Three Kingdoms” narrative to describe the state of the political landscape in Malaysia, post-Malacca state election. This political configuration will likely remain until the next general election, which means that any coalition, including Harapan, can spring electoral surprises amidst a divided electorate.

Ayer Keroh seat winner Kerk Chee Yee

Thirdly, there were some bright spots for some of the DAP and Harapan candidates. In the Ayer Keroh state seat, DAP’s Kerk Chee Yee, who will turn 30 only next year, managed to win 60 percent (down by 4.8 percent from GE14) of the popular vote in a mixed seat that is 40 percent Malay.

In the Kesidang state seat, DAP’s Allex Seah Shoo Chin managed to win 66 percent of the vote (down by 5.9 percent) in a mixed seat that is 37 percent Malay. Both DAP candidates would not have been able to retain their seats without retaining some of the Malay support that Harapan had gained in GE14, especially when one considers that the vote share for Harapan in Malacca dropped by 15 percent from GE14 to the 2021 state assembly election.

In addition, DAP’s youngest candidate, Mohd Danish Zainuddin, who contested in the 65 percent Malay seat of Pengkalan Batu, came within one percent of winning the seat. This is a credible showing for a first-time candidate contesting in a difficult seat, which also featured a former DAP Malay exco member who had left the party as part of the Sheraton Move.

The former Malacca chief minister from Amanah, Adly Zahari, also managed to retain his state seat of Bukit Katil and remains a popular political figure in the state. Adly will likely be named as the leader of the opposition and can make use of this platform to increase his political standing, not just within Malacca but also nationally.

Fourthly, the Malacca state election result is a good wake up call for Harapan and provides an opportunity for some soul-searching and reflection. The decision to take in two political “frogs” from Umno did not yield any political dividends for Harapan – the former Umno chief minister managed to win only 27 percent of the votes in the state seat of Asahan – and in fact, probably discouraged some of Harapan’s supporters from coming out to vote or perhaps even to switch their votes.

Current Prime Minister Ismail Sabri Yaakob and former prime minister Muhyiddin Yassin

The lack of a compelling narrative, especially in terms of a future vision for the state government, also requires attention. The need for a strong ground game in terms of the party machinery, especially in the semi-urban and rural seats, also needs to be addressed. We cannot depend on machinery from other states to cover some of the weaknesses of the local machinery during a general election.

Fifthly and most importantly, the Malacca state election result gives Harapan some time – we are not quite sure how much time – to come up with a new and more compelling narrative for GE15. We do not have GST and 1MDB to use as campaign material against the BN.

While many voters are not satisfied with the handling of the Covid-19 crisis by the government led by Muhyiddin Yassin, the anger towards the same cabinet members led by current Prime Minister Ismail Sabri Yaakob may have been reduced, especially with the reopening of the economy.

What Harapan needs is a new narrative for GE15 that has the following elements:

(i) Presenting a line-up of experienced and young leaders to lead the country forward, rather than just relying on just the top leaders of the individual component parties;

(ii) Presenting a compelling vision for the country, post-Covid-19, at the national and state levels that focuses on competency and capability; and

(iii) Presenting a configuration for new alliances, including with the new party Muda, to attract younger voters and also younger volunteers and members to be part of our machinery on the ground and in social media.

There is still time, but this time needs to be spent well. Personal agendas need to be put aside in the interest of a larger and more compelling strategy and political narrative moving forward. - Mkini

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ONG KIAN MING is Bangi MP and the DAP's assistant political education director.

The views expressed here are those of the author/contributor and do not necessarily represent the views of MMKtT.