Melaka polls: Umno’s back with a roar

 

The Melaka state elections result shows the Umno leadership was right to go into the polls as part of the old Barisan Nasional and not as part of an Umno-Peritakan Nasional alliance.

It also signals that Umno, far from being dead or wounded, is ready to bounce back at the next general election.

BN didn’t just win back Melaka, it did it in grand style by securing 21 of the 28 state legislative assembly seats.

The fact that the MCA won two seats and the MIC won the single seat it contested gives the two partners in the BN coalition a much-needed shot in the arm.

It’s not just Umno which is back; the BN is also back.

Surprisingly, Pakatan Harapan was thrashed. It took only five seats, while PN could only manage two. PAS, which contested under the PN logo, did not win any seat. All those who stood as independents lost, as expected.

I had written in my earlier column that if Melaka voters were to vote the Umno-led BN into power, it would mean they felt political stability and economic recovery were paramount in the wake of the Covid-19 pandemic.

A BN victory, I had said, would indicate that the voters believed in the coalition’s track record, prior to the 2013 general election, of ensuring stability and growth.

Melaka voters have just declared that despite its flaws, BN is the best among the choices laid before them. At least for now.

I had also said by voting BN into power, they would be signalling that they were not bothered about the allegations of corruption against Umno leaders and the court cases involving former prime minister Najib Razak and Umno president Ahmad Zahid Hamidi and others.

It could be that Melaka voters feel just because some Umno leaders at the federal level may be corrupt, it does not mean Melaka Umno leaders are also corrupt.

The Umno comeback could also indicate that voters believe Umno has changed, and that the party has learned its lessons after its defeat in the last general election.

The BN win is a huge personal victory for its election director Mohamad Hasan, for it demonstrates his leadership ability. The Umno number two had predicted that the BN would win 18 seats, but the coalition won 21, exceeding not just his expectations but those of political analysts.

This victory will surely enhance Mohamad’s standing in Umno.

The BN win also gives a fillip to former prime minister Najib Razak’s position in the party as he had been campaigning hard on the ground. It’s obvious voters did not see him as someone convicted of corruption but as a popular political leader.

The win shows that Najib will likely remain a formidable force in Umno for some time yet. If he succeeds in his appeal against his conviction, there’ll be no stopping him. Bossku, it appears, is back – at least for now.

This win has strengthened the current leadership of Umno, including party president Zahid.

Prime Minister Ismail Sabri Yaakob, the Umno vice-president, may have to think twice if he intends to contest for the party presidency at the next Umno election.

Umno now has the confidence to go into GE15 on its own. The Umno leadership will certainly feel it does not need PN or PAS or anyone else.

Also, the Melaka victory has further strengthened Umno’s hands in negotiations with PN and PAS at the federal level.

Muhyiddin’s failure to lead PN to victory or to do credibly well, has badly damaged his standing at the national level.

Although Bersatu won two seats, as it did in the last general election, the failure to capture Melaka or to at least secure more seats can be seen as punishment by voters for the party that caused the downfall of the PH-led government 22 months after the last general election.

It appears that voters of this historic state have rung the death knell for Bersatu.

Will we see some Bersatu members returning to Umno? You and I won’t be surprised if that happens, of course.

In fact, with this win, Umno may be tempted to get Ismail Sabri to advise the Yang di-Pertuan Agong to dissolve Parliament sooner rather than later.

What about PH? Obviously neither Anwar Ibrahim’s charm nor its strategy worked. It’s akin to a slap in the face to go from winning 15 seats (including two contributed by Bersatu which was then in PH) in the 2018 general election to five now.

PKR itself was humiliated. All its 11 candidates lost.

Could it be because PH accepted two of the four assemblymen who withdrew support for the then chief minister from Umno, Sulaiman Ali, and which caused the collapse of the state government?

The coalition led by Anwar will have to crunch the election figures and examine the reasons for the drubbing. It has much work to do if it wants to perform better in the next general election.

What about PAS? It backed the wrong horse and has paid for it.

The PAS leadership’s gamble to go with Muhyiddin’s Bersatu instead of long-established Umno obviously didn’t work.

But given the chameleon-like moves of the PAS leadership in recent years, they would probably lick their wounds and try desperately to hook up with Umno again under the Muafakat Nasional pact.

Otherwise, they may lose some of their 18 parliamentary seats in the next general election, especially if Umno decides to contest against PAS candidates.

For Umno, it signals a return to power through the front door – for a start in Melaka. If the momentum carries through, it may return to federal level power in a dignified manner through the front door after GE15.

But Umno and the BN have to remember that they have only won one battle, and that too in a small state. They have not won the war yet. - FMT

The views expressed are those of the writer and do not necessarily reflect those of MMKtT.