PAS grassroots will determine outcome of Umno alliance

When it comes to the crunch, will Umno grassroots vote for PAS in the coming general election, and vice versa?

At the top level, it is interesting to observe that PAS seems to be gradually aligning itself with Umno.

Except for Selangor, where PAS may lose all the urban seats it won in the last two general elections, what other option does PAS have but to work with Umno?

Although PAS president Abdul Hadi Awang has tried to rationalise this move, by saying that he only wants to ensure there is always a Muslim leader, he was attacked by both Pakatan Harapan youth leaders and Malaysiakini readers for his hypocrisy.

Haven’t Muslims always helmed the nation? In the federation, the Agong is the head of Islam, and all six prime ministers since Merdeka have all been Muslims.

In this light, Hadi’s open letter can be seen as nothing but a veiled attack on the DAP, and an indirect way of saying that he would support even an Umno leader, just because he is Muslim. 

My question to Hadi is this: would he also support a Muslim bumiputera from Sarawak, for example, to replace Najib Abdul Razak as prime minister?

Why must the prime minister always come from Umno? Does Umno not recognise that it now needs the support of the other parties, including PAS and those in Sabah and Sarawak, to stay afloat?

In my opinion, Hadi has merely used religion to justify PAS’ and his own willingness to support the current administration in the lead-up to the coming election, and nothing more.

PAS’ recent comments after hearing out 1MDB chief executive officer Arul Kanda Kandasamy also demonstrate that its leaders are more than willing to play down the scandal to ensure its grassroots vote for BN. 

A reciprocal game

Najib too knows how to play the game and attract the support of PAS grassroots. At last year’s public rally to protest Myanmar's persecution of the Rohingya, both Najib and Hadi shared the same stage. 

In the process, Najib seemed willing to damage whatever relations Malaysia has with a fellow Asean member, and its state counsellor, the renowned Aung San Suu Kyi. “Are they blind?” Najib shouted to some 10,000 supporters at Stadium Tititwangsa.

Besides Suu Kyi, the statement also unsurprisingly roused ire from the country’s media. Others, such as Mahathir, also asked, “Why should a PM be demonstrating?” 

In the wake of the public rally, head of the Opposition Leader's Office Malek Hussin asked why a 2012 motion by Lembah Pantai MP Nurul Izzah Anwar on the plight of the Rohingya was shot down in Parliament. 

A call by Amanah Youth chief Mohd Sany Hamzan to cut ties with Myanmar also fell on deaf ears once the rally was over.

If not for the support given by Umno leaders to Hadi of late, his private member's bill to amend the Syariah Courts (Criminal Jurisdiction) Act 1965 would likely not have gained much traction.

The bill has nevertheless been postponed again, maybe until after the next general election. Umno may be wary that overt support for Hadi’s bill would trigger yet another Malay tsunami against BN.

Will the two parties, especially at the grassroots level, support each other to stay in power?

Only the PAS grassroots that can answer that question. Especially since history tells us that working with Umno, as they did during the era of Asri Muda, results with them on the losing end.

At the time, PAS had to leave the BN coalition after just five years and lost badly in the 1978 election – capturing just five seats in Parliament and being routed by Umno and Berjasa in Kelantan.

Would the PAS grassroots risk a repeat of history? There seem to be signs that the party leadership is heading in that direction.

After all said and done, would Umno leaders be willing to allow PAS to take on too many seats, given that that would jeopardise BN should PAS decide to jump ship one day?

The stakes may be too big for Umno.

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STEPHEN NG is an ordinary citizen with an avid interest in following political developments in the country since 2008. - Mkini