PERAK 12-01-2019.Ramli Mohd Noor (Blue) from BN M. Manogaran (white) from PH and independent candidates Sallehudin Ab Talib (suit) and Wong Seng Yee (farmer hat) joining hands after the four candidates filed their nomination papers to contest the Cameron Highlands by-election at the Dewan Gemilang in SMK Sultan Ahmad Shah.MALAYMAIL/Farhan Najib
KUALA LUMPUR – Whatever political credibility remains of Barisan Nasional (BN) could hinge on the outcome of the Cameron Highlands by-election this Saturday, as defeat for the incumbent could further erode support, spark more defections and stymie a political comeback, analysts said.
Despite efforts by the former ruling coalition to turn the January 26 poll into a referendum on the Pakatan Harapan (PH) administration’s performance, pundits said the federal seat contest would instead be a litmus test for BN’s legacy.
“If BN loses, it is going to reflect very poorly on them. It goes to show it has little support even among its own supporters,” Sivamurugan Pandian, political analysts with Universiti Sains Malaysia, told Malay Mail.
“The seat is in a state controlled by BN so losing would definitely have a political impact. I don’t think it can afford to lose this seat.”
BN has not lost the Cameron Highlands seat since 2003. Situated in Pahang and comprising two state seats made up of predominantly rural areas, the coalition remains influential among its Malay and Orang Asli constituents even as it ceded federal power to PH in the 14th general election.
The two communities form over half of the seat’s 32,048 registered voters. Chinese voters, mostly PH supporters, make up a third of the electorate followed by Indians at 15 per cent. At least half of the latter are known to be staunch BN backers.
Pahang is also one of only two states still under BN control, which underpins its clout in Cameron Highlands. The other is Perlis.
But some PH leaders are hopeful that this allegiance may waver now that BN can no longer dispense development funds and trigger a swing in Malay and Orang Asli votes.
Former PKR vice-president Chua Tian Chang said the ruling coalition has focused most of its resources on the predominantly Malay and Orang Asli areas, but conceded that uprooting BN’s entrenched support there is an uphill task.
PH is facing particularly tough campaigns in the Federal Land Development Agency (Felda) settlements, where anger towards the government over falling commodity prices has reached boiling point. Felda settlements form a large part of Jelai, one of two state seats in Cameron Highlands and helmed by BN.
“We are trying to narrow the gap with the Malays but it’s still tough since PAS has endorsed BN, which gives them the advantage,” Chua, also known as Tian Chua, told Malay Mail.
“Umno is still very strong in the Felda areas and we recognise that (weak) commodity prices is making it harder.”
The issue became a crucial component of a class-driven campaign message by BN to paint PH as failing to safeguard the welfare of poorer constituents.
Urging protest through the ballot box, BN leaders said the Cameron Highland by-election’s outcome will act as a referendum on PH’s seven-months performance. But analysts like Sivamurugan said PH losing would signify little politically, noting that by-elections often have little to no bearing on national politics.
“If PH loses, it simply means status quo. Look at all the recent or dozen over by-elections in the past. In seats where PH won, it retained them; the same with BN,” he said.
“There were only one or two that shifted hands.”
But Asian Strategy & Leadership Institute (Asli) senior adviser Oh Ei Sun said while a BN win does not necessarily entail a major sentiment shift, it reaffirms PH’s failure to make inroads into the Malay heartland.
“A BN win would also confirm that despite May 9’s narrow win, PH continues to be frustrated in reaching out to rural Malay votes,” he said.
“It means BN, especially Umno, will continue to do well in rural constituencies if it continues with its trend toward increasingly overt racially and religiously supremacist agitations, but would probably need extra effort to return to victory in urban and suburban seats.” – Malay Mail
Umno, PAS playing dangerous race game, says Guan Eng
UMNO and PAS are stirring up racial hatred in the Cameron Highlands by-election, said Lim Guan Eng, warning of serious consequences if they are allowed to win on Saturday.
“If they win this time, only Muslims could be leaders and it would mean non-Muslims have no chance to be ministers or even members of parliament,” the DAP secretary-general said yesterday in a nod to PAS president Abdul Hadi Awang’s ceramah on Sunday.
Hadi, while campaigning in Jelai, said DAP has no concept of sin and heavenly reward (dosa pahala), urging a 1,000-strong crowd of Malay-Muslim farmers and Felda settlers in Sg Koyan 1 to pick the Barisan Nasional candidate, Ramli Mohd Nor, on the basis of faith alone.
Lim, who is also finance minister, urged a ceramah crowd in Tanah Rata last night to back the Pakatan Harapan candidate, M. Manogaran, who is also from DAP.
PH cannot afford to lose a single vote because that would make the opposition think that its extremist tactics work, Lim said.
A BN victory at Cameron Highlands will only embolden Umno and PAS to adopt even more extremist and racist views in the future, he said.
“If you vote for them (the opposition), then they have the tendency to become more extremist and racist.
“In the future, if your child wants to be a minister or an MP, they would not stand a chance because of this dangerous racial tactic.”
He also took a swipe at the previous BN-led government, accusing it of being famously known as a corrupted government.
“They (BN) would never speak about battling corruption. Just look at the 1MDB scandal, which has cost us RM100 billion in losses.
“If we speak about a righteous leader, who would it be if you compared BN with Dr Mahathir (Prime Minister Dr Mahathir Mohmad) and Anwar (Ibrahim, prime minister-in-waiting).
“If you look at the ability to manage the economy, who is better than Mahathir and Anwar or BN?” – https://www.themalaysianinsight.com/
MALAY MAIL / THE MALAYSIAN INSIGHT
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