Slight edge to BN, but race still in the balance

CAMERON POLLS | The Jan 26 Cameron Highlands by-election will see Pakatan Harapan attempting to wrest the BN stronghold for the first time in over 60 years.

BN, on its part, is fighting to keep the seat, with its deputy president Mohamad Hasan expressing that winning this seat would be a sign of the coalition's resurgence after its defeat in the 14th general election (GE14).

To that end, BN has departed from convention for the traditional MIC seat and fielded former Penang Commercial Crime Department chief Ramli Mohd Nor as its direct candidate in the by-election.

This candidate choice has given BN an early slight advantage, said Ilham Centre executive director Mohd Azlan Zainal, though he believes the competition is still relatively balanced right now.

“So far, the candidate has given an advantage to BN, but the race is still balanced in this early stage of the campaign.

“Harapan’s defensive acts on Malay-Muslim issues will forever keep Harapan in a dilemma because this by-election is the best simulation to test Malay and rural support for Harapan,” Azlan said to Malaysiakini when contacted after the nomination process today.

Ramli, who is from the Semai tribe in Cameron Highlands, has been widely acknowledged as a formidable candidate, going up against Harapan's M Manogaran from DAP and two independent candidates - local farmer Wong Seng Yee and teacher Sallehudin Ab Talib. Their names were announced by the Election Commission (EC) after the nomination process today.

DAP veteran Lim Kit Siang had lauded Ramli's calibre and stature as an Orang Asli candidate and disputed MyPPP president M Kayveas had also said BN made the right choice in picking Ramli as its candidate.

Even DAP secretary-general Lim Guan Eng had said Harapan was "shaken" by Ramli as the BN candidate for the polls.

Zainal said choosing Ramli as its candidate is very much in line with BN’s strategy for this by-election.

“BN’s strategy is to increase its Malay and Orang Asli support when it realised that non-Muslim support is not in its favour.

“Choosing Ramli, who is of the Semai tribe, as the BN candidate is very accurate for this strategy, and on top of that, he is a local,” Azlan said to Malaysiakini.

The Cameron Highlands electorate consists of 34 percent Malays, 30 percent Chinese, 15 percent Indians and 22 percent Orang Asli.

BN garnered 46.9 percent of support from Malay voters to Harapan’s nine percent as well as 74 percent of Orang Asli support to Harapan’s 10.1 percent in the constituency in GE14, Azlan said.

As such, he said, BN will have a huge advantage if it can get more than 80 percent turnout from the Malay and Orang Asli voters on polling day on Jan 26.

Harapan, meanwhile, is too reliant on non-Muslim’s support, he said.

“If Harapan fails to maintain a minimum of 55 percent of its current support, then Harapan will face a difficult road.

“Among the Malay and Orang Asli voters, Harapan’s only choice is to work hard to increase its support to 30 percent,” Azlan said.

Harapan is already working hard to dent Ramli’s stature in the Cameron Highlands community as it is united behind its message against the BN candidate - that although Ramli may be a good candidate, he is representing a bad party.

"They (BN) have a strong candidate but the party that he represents is not a party that can even save themselves," Guan Eng had said.

He also pointed out that it is not just about the candidates, but about the parties they represent and he urged voters to vote strategically.

“Why not have both the state government and the federal government?” he said.

Similarly, Kit Siang had previously questioned why Ramli was representing a coalition which he described as a "sinking ship" in a few of his speeches leading up to the nomination day.

While Harapan has been seen to be aggressively campaigning in Cameron Highlands, BN has been a lot more reserved in revealing its campaigning to the public eye.

BN appears to be employing a similar strategy as it did in GE14 in terms of employing more smaller-scale campaigning rather than the mega ceramah style favoured by Harapan.

This would include visiting door-to-door, smaller ceramah at local coffeeshops and gotong-royong events.

BN’s Cameron Highlands by-election campaign director Wan Rosdy Wan Ismail (photo above) told Malaysiakini that while it is embarking on smaller scale activities, it is also has some “big” events planned.

He said one of BN main messages would be to highlight the purported lack of performance of the Harapan government.

“We find that in the months that Harapan has been in power, I do not need to say anything; everyone knows, for example, the fuel price, the cost of living, the (Felda) settlers’ debts and PTPTN (loan issue).

“So, we will play up the performance of the Harapan government,” he said.

He added that BN grassroots members have already started campaigning.

But BN will not be alone. PAS, which is sitting out of the election, has said it would support Ramli as the opposition candidate.

PAS received 41.9 percent of the Malay support in the constituency in GE14, said Azlan, and if PAS successfully mobilises its voters in favour of BN, it would provide a huge advantage to BN.

“But, if there is any protest among PAS members (not voting for BN), it will not disturb BN’s support trend in Cameron on the whole because BN already has an existing support base,” he said.

In a surprise twist on nomination day, disputed MyPPP president M Kayveas has decided not to contest and has instead thrown his full support behind Manogaran.

While Kayveas’ support would help increase Harapan’s share of Indian support, it would not be significant enough to help Harapan’s chances in the by-election, Azlan said.

Despite all that, he said Harapan does have the advantage of being the federal government, and it can highlight its pro-Malay and pro-Orang Asli policies to gain the confidence of those groups of voters.

“(But) it is expected that the issue of religion and race will continue to be brought up as a ‘killer point’ to play up sentiments in rejecting the Harapan government,” Azlan said.

Wan Rosdy, however, denied that there is a BN model of playing up racial and religious sentiments.

“That's just perception... we do not play up racial issues because it brings no benefit and will create an uneasy situation,” he said.

The seat was won in the 14th general election by BN candidate C Sivarraajh, with a slim 597-vote majority.

However, the seat was declared vacant by the Election Court in November last year, after it was determined that corrupt practices had led to BN victory.

Although MIC did not appeal the Election Court's ruling to vacate the seat, Sivarraajh had challenged the Election Commission's decision to disallow him from contesting there again.

He lost his bid when the High Court in Kuala Lumput upheld the Election Commission's decision to ban him from voting in any election for the next five years.

Reports by Geraldine Tong, Ng Xiang Yi, Annabelle Lee

 - Mkini