Battle for Rantau - three things you may not know

Rantau voters will go to the polls on April 13. Here are three electoral facts that are not well known, but could set the scene for the by-election.

1. BN 'lost' Rantau in GE14

Acting Umno president Mohamad Hasan won the Rantau seat uncontested on nomination day for the 14th general election, so how could BN possibly have lost the state seat?

In a general election, voters are given two ballots to vote on, one for the state seat and another for Parliament.

Even though Mohamad won the state seat uncontested, Rantau voters still went to the polls in the 14th general election to vote for their member of Parliament.

Mohamad Hasan

Based on data at the parliamentary level, BN lost Rantau by 459 votes. More specifically, BN garnered 7,654 votes to PKR's 8,113 votes. PAS received 751 votes.

Rantau is one of four state seats under the parliamentary seat of Rembau. In the 14th general election, BN won this parliamentary seat with a 4,364-vote majority, a dramatic reduction from the 18,357-vote majority it secured in 2013.

2. PAS is less significant in Rantau

Umno's cooperation with PAS significantly boosted the Malay nationalist party's performance in two recent by-elections, namely Cameron Highlands and Semenyih.

However, this factor is unlikely to play a significant role in Rantau as PAS has a significantly weaker presence there.

For comparison, PAS garnered 14.72 percent of the votes in Cameron Highlands and 15.09 percent of the votes in Semenyih during the 14th general election.

These votes were transferred over to BN almost in entirety during the two by-elections. However, PAS only managed to net 4.55 percent of the votes in Rantau during the 14th general election.

Even if all PAS supporters backed BN, this increase will be significantly less compared to the ones recorded in Cameron Highlands and Semenyih.

3. Rantau ranks eighth for Indian voters

Rantau is a state constituency with the eighth highest number of Indian voters among the 505 state seats in the country.

Dr S Streram

At around 27 percent, this state seat's Indian constituents are only superseded by Buntong, Sentosa, Perai, Jeram Padang, Sri Tanjung, Hutan Melintang and Jalong.

Among the supermajority Indian polling districts in Rantau are Linsum and Pekan Sagga.

Uphill battle for Harapan

Rantau is Mohamad's birthplace and he has been the constituency's incumbent assemblyperson since 2004.

He was also Negeri Sembilan menteri besar from 2004 until last year, when BN lost power in the national polls on May 9.

He had won the seat uncontested for a fourth term in GE14 after the returning officer prevented his challenger Dr S Streram from entering the nomination centre to file his papers on nomination day.

On Feb 18, the Federal Court upheld an Election Court decision to void Mohamad Hasan's victory. The election petition was filed by Streram.

While Rantau voters chose Harapan over BN at the parliamentary level, they may vote differently for the state seat with Mohamad's name on the ballot.

Even though PAS only makes up 4.5 percent of the votes, this is still enough to help BN scrape through based on the 14th general election results for the Rembau parliamentary seat.

Furthermore, Harapan is now facing voter disgruntlement, particularly in the Malay community and this could erode its existing support base.

While Rantau may no longer be the once impenetrable BN fortress, Harapan is still expected to face an uphill battle for the seat.

Although Rantau has no bearing on the balance of power in the Negeri Sembilan state assembly, the stakes are high.

For Mohamad, retaining the seat will help solidify his position in Umno, while continuing BN's momentum after two by-election victories.

For Harapan, defeating the acting Umno president will be a coup, on top of slowing down a BN buoyed by its recent wins. - Mkini