Can Streram beat Mat Hasan in Rantau?

QUESTION TIME | I

t is not impossible for Dr S Streram to win against Umno acting president Mohamad Hasan in the Rantau state seat by-election, but it is an uphill task that will be made easier if PKR/Pakatan Harapan make the right moves in terms of strategy and campaigning.

Given the racial mix and the dynamics operating there, the results are likely to be close. Even if Streram loses, PKR has done the right thing, morally, ethically and strategically, by choosing to field Streram against calls to put in a Malay candidate to have a better chance against Mat Hasan, as he is popularly known, in his stronghold.

If the results are close, it will be a victory of sorts for PKR/Harapan, for, despite the race and religious rhetoric of Umno/PAS, a relative lightweight like Streram could come close to unseating Umno’s current chief, strengthening the argument for multi-racial politics in Malaysia, which is what PKR stands for.

If against all the odds, Streram upsets Mat Hasan, what a coup it would be for PKR/Harapan, especially PKR. They can rightly claim that they have beaten back, at least for now, the narrow racial and religious appeal of Umno/PAS, which appears to have given them an edge in the last two by-elections where they retained the seats quite comfortably.

Thus, the incentive for a PKR/Harapan win is enormous, and with intelligent planning and the right actions taken during the campaign period, a win is possible against the racist Mat Hasan, who recently characterised as “squatters becoming landlords” the situation of a more multi-racial mix in government following GE14.

As I have pointed out in this article, Streram is the best possible candidate not only in terms of moral and ethical issues, but also has the best chance, given the racial mix of the Rantau constituency in terms of voters.

The racial mix is such that if PKR/Harapan get even as low as just 25 percent of Malay support, they can still win Rantau provided there is solid support from the non-Malays. At the last count (pre-GE14 figures), Malays accounted for 54 percent of the 20,472 registered voters in Rantau, Indians 27 percent, Chinese 19 percent and Others, one percent.  

Let’s say Malay support is 25 percent. That represents 13.5 percent (0.25X54) of total votes. Let’s assume 85 percent Indian support or 22.95 percent (0.85X27) of total votes and 80 percent for the remainder 20 perent Chinese and others to give 16 percent (0.8X20) of total votes. That gives a winning 52.45 percent to PKR/Harapan.

These calculations show that even if Malay support is low for PKR/Harapan in a Malay majority seat, it is still possible to win if there is overwhelming support from non-Malays. This is part of the reason why PKR/DAP did particularly well in mixed seats in GE14 - and which led to BN’s toppling after 61 years at the helm. 

However, this time around, after 10 months in power, there is disillusionment with Harapan. There is a sense that much of what was promised is not fulfilled and there is the feeling, strategically stoked by Umno/PAS’ racial and religious rhetoric, that the Malays are under threat and their special privileges may be taken away.

Then there is the general feeling among all communities that not enough is being done in terms of stimulating the economy and providing the right impetus towards the growth of incomes so that more people can be lifted out of poverty.

By now, most people realise it a myth that there is no poverty in Malaysia - the myth is perpetuated because the poverty level is set at a ridiculously low level of under RM1,000 per month per household.

To make this worse, anecdotal evidence indicates prices continue to be high despite the removal of the goods and services tax (GST), which was blamed for rising prices by Harapan, especially by DAP, which made the GST issue its main campaign platform in the last general election.

Thus, the strategy for PKR/Harapan, and particularly for PKR, whose man will be standing, should be three-pronged.

Firstly, that the reform agenda that includes major legislative changes to check the powers of government, which were promised in its manifesto, will be pursued relentlessly, even if it is taking time.

Secondly, to reassure that the special privileges of the Malays will remain and that all efforts at improving overall livelihoods will benefit them the most as they form the majority community and a large section of them are poor. Emphasise, too, that all citizens must be taken care of and everyone should live in peace and harmony. This is, after all, what Malaysians have always wanted.

Thirdly, and this is long overdue - at least outline a plan to get the economy out of its doldrums and a strategy for keeping prices under check. Blaming the previous government for everything does not work. You were elected to correct things that were wrong. What will you do to lift the poor out of their misery? How will you improve education? How will you control prices? Give timelines and targets if you have them, or set deadlines by which time you will have an action plan.

While that is the messaging challenge for PKR/Harapan, the other major obstacle is getting people to come out and vote - always difficult in a by-election. One of the things that could stymie PKR/Harapan is poor turnout and indifference to the by-election. This is not easy to overcome and requires a publicity strategy to focus attention on the by-election and emphasise the importance of voters returning to exercise their franchise. 

It would greatly help if the PKR top guns descend on Rantau and speak in one voice.  Show that everyone - Anwar Ibrahim, Azmin Ali, Rafizi Ramli, etc. are all on the same page as far as broad policy, plans and directions are concerned and that they are still committed to multi-racialism and reforms.

If they do these well and orchestrate their campaign by giving the right messages to the right people, there is no reason why PKR/Harapan - and therefore Streram - cannot win. After all, in a multi-racial country, isn't campaigning on a multi-racial platform the best way?

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P GUNASEGARAM says we are still far away from thinking non-racially, but we should move in that direction at least. E-mail: t.p.guna@gmail.com) - Mkini