HOW many of Pakatan Harapan’s Malay supporters turn out to vote, and which way the PAS votes swing are the factors deciding the outcome of the Semenyih by-election today.
The polls have become a mini-referendum on the government’s 10-month record.
A study by Ilham Centre found that as of yesterday afternoon, two of the front-runners, PH and Barisan Nasional, are locked in an intense contest for the Malay vote.
The think-tank said BN could pull off an upset and recapture the state constituency it lost in the May 9 elections.
PH activists said the biggest concern is achieving a 60% turnout, especially in the Malay middle-class voting districts of Kantan Permai, Bukit Mahkota and Tasik Kesuma, where a third of the total constituents reside.
PH officials are positive about maintaining the coalition’s high Chinese and Indian support and said there is increased support from the Orang Asli community.
“Our surveys indicate that we can maintain the same level of support among middle-class Malays in these three voting districts,” said Khairul Annuar Zit of Amanah, the component party designated to campaign in Kantan Permai Bukit Mahkota and Tasik Kesuma.
PH garnered between 48% and 55% of the vote in these three districts in GE14.
“But the main challenge is to get our supporters out to vote. If they balik kampung or they are too busy and feel the election is not important enough, then we are in trouble,” said Khairul.
To have a shot at capturing Semenyih, BN needs to convert as many PAS members as possible to its side, as well as persuade about 2,000 voters who supported PH in GE14 to switch sides.
The state seat, which is close to the Negri Sembilan border southeast of Selangor, has 53,257 voters. Malays make up 68% of voters, followed by Chinese (17%), Indians (14%) and Orang Asli (1%).
100% plus 10%
In GE14, 84.3% of the Semenyih vote was split three ways – between PH with 23,428 votes, BN (14,464) and PAS (6,996). Parti Sosialis Malaysia (PSM) snatched 1,293 votes.
This time, Semenyih is being fought over by PH, BN, PSM and independent Kuan Chee Heng. But political analysts from Ilham Centre and Institut Darul Ehsan said most voters would seriously consider only PH or BN.
PAS has pledged full support for BN. If PAS delivers, based on the GE14 results, it will boost BN’s votes to 21,460 votes – still 2,000 short of a win.
Khairul of PH does not believe that those who supported PAS a year ago will vote for BN now due to the historical animosity between the two parties. He said the observation is based on conversations with PAS voters.
“They say no matter if their uztaz tells them to vote BN, they will not do it.”
PAS operatives, such as Negri Sembilan commissioner Rafiei Mustapha, however, said members will fall in line and obey the party leaders.
“We met PAS branch leaders who admitted voting for PH in GE14. They regret their choice and now say they will vote BN,” said Rafiei, who heads the PAS campaign in the voting districts of Sesapan Kelubi, Sesapan Minangkabau and Sg Jai.
“Unlike other party members, PAS members have been taught to follow what their leaders say.”
Even if that were true, BN still needs 2,000 extra votes to secure a winning majority.
Selangor PAS election director Roslan Shahir said the plan is to hand over to BN all 6,996 of PAS’ votes, plus 10% more.
These 699 votes will come from the people who voted PH in GE14, but who have been persuaded by PAS to switch sides, said Roslan.
Chinese vote
In the four Chinese-majority polling districts of Semenyih, PH official Brian Lai said the ruling coalition has ignited interest in voters who were initially not interested.
Chinese voter support for PH in GE14 was as high as 72% in certain districts and their votes are vital in the face of a BN-PAS onslaught.
“When we first went into the new villages, there was a lot of grumbling. People told us they were dissatisfied with the government over unfulfilled promises. The late assemblyman (Bakhtiar Mohd Nor) had also passed away before he could get his service team together.
“But after we went from house to house and brought with us leaders like (Deputy Dewan Rakyat Speaker) Nga Kor Ming and (Primary Industries Minister) Teresa Kok to explain things to them, their opinions turned positive,” said Lai, who is the Teratai assemblyman.
Chinese voters are concentrated in Kg Baru Broga, Pekan Semenyih, Kg Baru Semenyih and Semenyih Indah, where Lai and his team, mostly from DAP, have been working.
Lai added that DAP is also blasting out messages on social media to get Semenyih voters who are out of town to return and vote today.
If BN loses in Semenyih today, I’ll hide under a table, says Najib
IF Barisan Nasional loses the Semenyih by-election today, former chairman Najib Razak said he will hide under a table.
The former prime minister said all signs point to a BN win and the pact will grab back the seat it lost to Pakatan Harapan in the 14th general election last May.
“Tomorrow (voting day) we will celebrate BN’s victory. I’ve made a pact with Johan Abdul Aziz (Hulu Langat Umno division chief). He invited me over. If we win, I will be here and if we lose, I’ll hide under a table,” he said on the eve of the elections in Taman Pelangi Semenyih.
Reports from the ground point to a return of support for BN compared with GE14, he said.
“The mood in the last two days favours BN. Make sure BN wins big tomorrow. I will be back if we win.”
A study by Ilham Centre found that as of yesterday afternoon, two of the front-runners, PH and BN, are locked in an intense contest for the Malay vote.
The think-tank said BN could pull off an upset and recapture the state constituency it lost last May.
Najib said voters now can compare the performance of BN and PH and which parties fulfils their promises.
“Never mind that we’ve lost power temporarily. When people have been pissed on (lied), then they understand. Don’t treat the rakyat as fools with promises of no tolls after midnight.
“If people lie to you, do you still support them?” he asked the crowd of 1,000.
PH’s litany of lies include raising the water tariff by 20%, which he blamed on the Air Selangor take over of Splash in an RM2.55 billion deal.
The candidates in the Semenyih seat are Muhammad Aiman Zainali (PH), Zakaria Hanafi (BN), Nik Aziz Afiq Abdul (Parti Sosialis Malaysia) and Kuan Chee Heng (independent).
THE MALAYSIAN INSIGHT
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