Semenyih is not the end of the world for PH

The knives are out for Pakatan Harapan (PH) after the Semenyih by-election. It has come under relentless attack by many quarters, and portrayed as a coalition destined to rule for only a single term.

There have been many analyses and write-ups carrying titles from “I told you so” to “Writing on the wall”.

PH was roasted and condemned as a government rejected by the people.

he result in Semenyih must be dissected and analysed in greater depth to enable us to understand the shift in support from PH to Umno-PAS. A more accurate analysis has to be based on the results of each polling stream.

Whatever the case may be, the result has to be seen and accepted as a failure of PH in as much as a success for Umno and PAS in reinventing themselves.

It has to be recognised that while PH has been sluggish and unconvincing in governing the country, with fractious inter-party relationships, Umno and PAS have been working out new political permutations, combinations and approaches which have seen them gaining ground and traction with the people.

This is more so with the Malays than the non-Malays. MCA and MIC are no longer of much consequence in the new political equation.

In the last general election, PH was ahead even with the combined votes obtained by PAS and Umno by about 2,000 votes. A cursory look at the Semenyih outcome shows that the surplus votes have swung to be about 2,000 in favour of Umno-PAS. It means there has been a swing of about 4,000 votes from PH to Umno-PAS.

We can safely assume that PAS voters in the general election, with their herd mentality, would have voted for Umno. The Chinese and Indian votes would have remained with PH.

In short, it could be said that PH lost in Semenyih largely because of Malay voters who decided to spurn PH.

If this is the case, PH needs to ask why this is so and what they must do to arrest the decline in Malay support.

Remain steady

PH may be putting a brave front to show calmness under crisis. But they have to grapple and come to terms with the bitter truth and hard realities.

They need to do an incisive post-mortem, reflect hard and deep to find out the reasons for their defeat.

Many have written on the said reasons. I shall not go into that here but instead I will focus on what PH should do to address them.

PH should no longer be in denial mode after two successive defeats, and now with the possibility of staring at defeat again in Rantau.

Ready for change

One lesson for PH from the Semenyih by-election is that people were ready to review their political stand and go for change. To think that only about 10 months ago many Malays had spurned BN for PH, and now reversed their position, is indeed quite phenomenal.

Either the Malays are fickle-minded and too impatient to wait for PH to deliver on their promises, or PH has really failed them.

Or simply, the race and religion card played by Umno and PAS were successful in poisoning their minds and creating a siege mentality in them.

As a result, they retreated from the path of reform and transformation, into the politics of “Ketuanan Melayu” promoted by Umno-PAS.

All these have to be studied by PH before it is too late.

Challenges

The PH government must address problems inherent in the government while at the same time deal decisively with the challenges from the opposition, many of which exceed legal bounds and cross the red lines of fair democratic practices.

Among the challenges is the toxic politics of race and religion. The opposition has been inciting the public with a lot of rhetoric, agitation and provocation on the issues of race and religion.

Demonstrations over religion and race at mosques and public places are fast becoming a form of popular dissent.

Yet, the government is not doing anything significant to curb this dangerous hate politics. We could be living with a time bomb waiting to explode in our faces anytime soon.

Freedom to lie

The PH government has given space for human rights including the freedom of expression and assembly. These rights and freedom have been exploited by political parties and politicians to the hilt, often crossing legal bounds and democratic practices.

Inflammatory statements, lies, spin and slander have now become a norm but the government is not willing or capable of doing anything about it.

It makes the unscrupulous politicians, their propaganda machinery and media organisations or practitioners more bold and defiant.

Finding consensus

The component parties within the PH coalition must show consensus in their public statements and pronouncements, especially so in matters of policy and governance.

They must work out the case and position for their respective parties in a more measured and circumspect manner so as not to create dissension, hostility and animosity from other races or factions.

The DAP must show greater restraint in its political stand and agitation.

Succession plan

Dr Mahathir Mohamad and Anwar Ibrahim must put a stop to all speculation and uncertainties on the succession plan. They may be in agreement about the succession plan and its timeline, but insiders and warlords from both sides are playing a different and dangerous game, much to the chagrin of the people.

Whatever reservations or misgivings Mahathir or his insiders may have against Anwar, these concerns must be treated as irrelevant as the issue has been agreed, sealed and signed by all the component parties.

Nobody should try to play God now to rewrite the script and renege on the said agreement.

If indeed Anwar is unworthy to take over, then leave it to the people to decide on it.

The people have shown they can bring down Najib Razak and his government, and also dump PH in by-elections. So trust that they could do the same to Anwar. But leave that to the people to decide, not for a handful of people from the dark corridors of power to determine.

Act swiftly

PH must act decisively against those breaking the law.

The Royal Commission of Inquiry to deal with judge Abdul Hamid Abu Backer’s explosive expose remains in limbo, with no terms of reference and its membership undefined.

The way the Malaysian Anti-Corruption Commission is handling the RM90 million allegedly paid by Umno to PAS leaders is far from satisfactory.

Big guns from the previous governments are still free from any legal proceedings despite much talk about their breaches of the law.

All these and many other things make people wonder why the government is slow in taking action.

PH must ride above the storm

In all fairness to PH, its track record as a government is not all about failures, unfulfilled promises and lack of action. There are many areas where they have done the right thing and are right on track.

These include redefining the economic framework, working out more sustainable fiscal policies, managing the national debt, instituting reforms in the government, restoring integrity in law enforcement agencies, and creating more space for dissent, freedom of expression and assembly. These are no small feats by any measurement.

According to the 19th Annual Edelman Trust Barometer Global, an international rating agency, their latest survey has shown that the people now trust the government much more than before.

The index shows a jump of 14 points from 46 under the previous government to 60 under the new government.

In short, PH can still hold its head high, knowing that it has done good for the nation and people.

It need not feel too crestfallen by what happened in Semenyih. It must accept the fact that the Malaysian public is still on a learning curve post-GE14.

The people are all too aware now that they have the power to change government. Sometimes, when people are suddenly armed with such power, they can go overboard and be reckless in their decision making.

For PH, it is not the end of the world. Far from it.

Semenyih is just a setback which could and should be turned into a wake-up call to do the right things.

PH must stick to its reform agenda, improve on its performance and find more effective ways to engage and reach out to the people.

A Cabinet reshuffle may well be due and could serve as a signal that Mahathir listens to the people and is ready to change in line with the legitimate expectations of the people.

Wan Haron Wan Hassan is a senior practising lawyer, active in civil society movements. - FMT