Streram is Harapan's best candidate to win Rantau

QUESTION TIME

 | If Dr S Streram is chosen for the Rantau state by-election to contest against Umno/BN, it will, first of all, help restore Harapan’s, and especially PKR’s, moral standing among all Malaysians because it was Streram who was to have contested the seat in GE14, but was forcibly prevented from filing his papers.

It will also give the best chance for PKR to take the seat from the racist, divisive Umno acting president Mohamad Hasan. Yes, he who in the run-up to GE14, in a gangster-like move, advocated violence against establishments supporting the opposition and who was returned unopposed to Rantau following the illegal restraining of Streram from filing his nomination papers.

Let's take the moral issue first, which is more important than anything else.

I believe most Malaysians want PKR/Harapan to consistently do right, even if it costs them sometimes in terms of votes, in terms of not increasing numbers by accepting defecting Umno MPs, in terms of not achieving a two-thirds majority immorally by wrongly asserting this is needed for change, etc.

Rantau offers PKR/Harapan a chance to reset the moral compass, nothing less. And to convince Malaysians of all races that we can depend on them to take this country forward from narrow race-based politics to something that is greater, much greater, based on truth, fairness, equity and the efforts of all.

After all, PKR is a multi-racial party and the most successful to date in Malaysia. In terms of numbers and public support, it is the dominant party in the ruling coalition, and has strong support, especially in Peninsular Malaysia where it won over 80 percent of seats contested. It has shown that the multi-racial, non-racist approach does and can work in multi-racial, non-racist (largely) Malaysia.

In GE14, current Umno acting president Mohamad Hasan won unopposed because Streram was restrained from filing his papers. Streram took it up with the Election Court where he won. On appeal, the Federal Court ruled for Streram, hence the by-election.

Now, ostensibly to get back lost Malay support, PKR is considering fielding someone else instead, read a Malay candidate. Some speculate a big name, like Rafizi Ramli, would be brought in to oust Mohamad. Others like Amanah vice president Mujahid Yusof Rawa say the challenge for PKR/Harapan is to regain Malay votes to win the elections. 

Wrong!Wrong! Wrong! Streram was wronged previously, he deserves to stand now. Wrong too because PKR’s/Harapan’s challenge is to mobilise multi-racial votes to win Rantau, not just Malay votes. Wrong the third time because putting a Malay candidate now means PKR is playing the racial card just like Umno/Pas.

Fortunately for PKR, there is no morality-reality dilemma here – Streram, as the candidate, gives the best choice for victory. Putting in a Malay candidate will most likely result in a loss. Here’s why.

At last count (pre GE14 figures), Malays accounted for 54 percent of registered voters in Rantau, Indians 27 percent, Chinese 19 percent, and Others 1 percent, among 20,472 voters. In the current mood, even the best Malay candidate that PKR/Harapan can get will obtain perhaps at maximum 40 percent Malay support or 21.6 percent of votes.

To win they need just over 50 percent of total votes or 28.4 percent (50-21.6) of total votes from the non-Malays. Some 61.8 percent of non-Malays who form 46 percent of voters must vote for PKR (0.46X0.618 = 0.284).

Here’s the question. Can they get 61.8 percent of non-Malay votes? Unlikely. Stop Streram and the Indian community, quite rightly so, is going to be up in arms. Let’s say only 55 percent vote for a Malay PKR candidate, that’s 14.85 percent (0.55X27) of the total vote. Then assume the Chinese and others (20 percent of voters) are similarly disappointed and only 65 percent vote for PKR, representing 13 percent (0.65X20) of the vote.

Totalling the votes from Malays (21.6 percent), Indians (14.85 percent) and Chinese (13 percent) gives 49.45 percent and a narrow loss for PKR. Of course, this is a scenario analysis and one can play around with different percentages with different results. But it gives a good sense of the dynamics in this by-election where PKR could lose with even a high 40 percent of Malay votes - that’s likely to be lower in reality.

Now, the scenario if Streram becomes the candidate. Let’s say the Malay support dwindles to 25 percent from 40 ercent implying 75 percent Malay support for Umno/BN. That represents 13.5 percent (0.25X54) of total votes. Let’s assume 85 percent Indian support or 22.95 percent (0.85X27) of total votes and 80 percent for the remainder 20 percent Chinese and others to give 16 percent (0.8X20) of total votes.

Total these up, and you have 52.45 percent, a narrow victory for PKR/Harapan! That shows that even with only 25 percent Malay support - on the low side - PKR/Harapan can still win with solid support from non-Malays.

This is counter-intuitive to the rhetoric which places getting Malay support above all. It needs to be taken into account for a proper choice of candidate.

You can see that putting up a candidate like Streram offers a stronger chance to unseat Mohamad Hassan and score a morale-boosting victory for PKR/Harapan than anyone else. 

This analysis reinforces PKR’s original ideology. If PKR/Harapan wants to win, the answer is not getting Malay votes at all cost, but to get Malay votes without alienating the non-Malays who are already spooked by Umno/Pas’ racist and extreme religious stance, and worries about Bersatu’s similar stance.

PKR’s top guns need to go to the ground and explain there are absolutely no plans to roll back Malay privileges, but only to bring to account those who have plundered this nation at a great cost to all Malaysians. And tell them what PKR/Harapan is going to do to increase incomes, reduce living costs and bring about a more equitable society - a long-overdue story.

Meantime, it has to reassure the non-Malays that the strident racial/religious rhetoric of Umno/Pas is not something they are going to emulate, but to remember that everyone has to be behind efforts to improve the well-being of the poor and the downtrodden through fair wages, immigration control, better education and health for all.

If they can do these two things, and re-commit to and keep most of the promises they made to the electorate pre-GE14, they can not only win Rantau, but the nation again come GE15. If they don’t they will have only themselves to blame, letting Malaysia down in the process.

Harapan, led by PKR, the party with the highest number of seats post GE14, should keep the moral high ground always and fight for fairness and equity, while Umno/Pas commits suicide by not just ignoring, but ridiculing and threatening the other just under 50 percent of the population, of which a significant number of over 10 percent are non-Malay bumiputeras.

That’s the only way for PKR/Harapan to win and it is not so difficult considering that Umno/Pas is in total disarray in defeat, and still buries its head in the sand, completely oblivious to the sea change that has taken place and is taking place in the country. 

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P GUNASEGARAM believes in the ultimate wisdom of the Malaysian people, despite all efforts to tear them asunder by some for their personal and selfish gains by masquerading as champions of their people. E-mail: t.p.guna@gmail.com. - Mkini