Was Harapan really drowned by a 'Malay tsunami' in Semenyih?

As the dust settles on the Semenyih by-election, some Pakatan Harapan leaders are beginning to point fingers at what they believe to be the root cause of the coalition's defeat.

Yesterday, PKR's Batu Uban assemblyperson A Kumaresan called for Bersatu chairperson Dr Mahathir Mohamad to be immediately replaced as prime minister.

Negeri Sembilan Bersatu chief Rais Yatim blamed the loss on anti-DAP sentiment instead, and urged the party to "soften" its image.

Pundits, meanwhile, declared that a "mini-Malay tsunami" turned against Harapan in Semenyih. 

Non-Malay support for Harapan remained largely intact albeit a lower turnout, which is a consistent trend in all by-elections.

But have Malay voters really abandoned the coalition that swept to federal power just under 10 months ago?

At face value, this may seem to be the case. In certain Malay-supermajority (those over 75 percent Malay) polling districts in Semenyih, BN won more than 70 percent of votes.

However, this was less about voters turning away from Harapan in droves than it was about them not being supporters in the first place.

Based on Malaysiakini's analysis of 15 Malay-supermajority polling districts (those over 75 percent Malay), Harapan's support declined in 12, by 0.6 percent to 13.7 percent.

Interestingly, Harapan improved or retained its support in three of these districts – Sesapan Batu Rembau (+2.7 percent), Hulu Semenyih (+0.7 percent) and Kampung Tanjong (+0.2 percent).

On average, the Malay swing against Harapan is estimated at around 6.5 percent, a far cry from the "political tsunami" that engulfed BN during last year's general election.

Analysts who spoke to Malaysiakini had put the nationwide Malay swing against BN during GE14 at 18 percent.

Not crossing over

While Malay disgruntlement against Harapan is undeniable, the defeat in Semenyih is largely attributable to the persistent difficulty the coalition faces in winning over Umno and PAS supporters.

With PAS' backing, BN was able to increase its support in certain Malay-supermajority polling districts by up to 25 percent.

BN's Zakaria Hanafi won the Semenyih seat with a 1,914-vote majority against Harapan's Muhammad Aiman Zainali, PSM's Nik Aziz Afiq Abdul and independent Kuan Chee Heng. 

It was the first seat to change hands since the 2018 general election.

The cooperation between Umno and PAS also shifted the goalposts somewhat, with the combined votes meaning that Harapan had to achieve a higher threshold of Malay support in order to win.

This new reality has sparked a debate in Harapan on how to counter the Umno-PAS narrative, which hinges on race and religion.

Several ministers are confident that if Putrajaya can improve the economy, voters can be convinced to back Harapan.

However, such a move would take time, and would not help the ruling coalition in any by-elections held in the near future.

 -Mkini