Will Harapan's bid to recapture Putrajaya lead to an implosion?

ANALYSIS | Fissures are widening in Pakatan Harapan over who should be the coalition's prime minister candidate. The dispute has led to PKR locking horns with DAP and Amanah.

DAP and Amanah appear to be pressuring PKR to accept Dr Mahathir Mohamad as an interim choice of prime minister before Anwar Ibrahim takes over in six months - a deal which the PKR president and those aligned to him have rejected.

This has raised concerns on whether Harapan is on the brink of collapse. Indeed, there are voices in PKR who believe that it might be time to forge a new path, without the old allies.

In a diverse nation where multi-party coalitions is the norm, such a move is not politically sound as no single party can feasibly form the government on its own.

"Harapan will not (collapse) if the parties are sober enough to see that no one -- not even the strongest of them, DAP, can do well solo," political scientist Wong Chin Huat told Malaysiakini.

"But prolonged bad blood will erode voters' patience," he added.

Sarawak-based analyst Jeniri Amir, however, said the dispute between backing Mahathir and Anwar has left Harapan on shaky ground.

"They are no longer solid because of this rift," he added.

Is supporting Mahathir then the best step forward for Harapan to regain power after being overthrown in a political coup this February?

Mistrust for Mahathir

Malaysiakini understands that for DAP and Amanah, the thinking is that Harapan would not have the numbers to secure a firm majority to retake Putrajaya without the 95-year-old politician.

However, PKR has made it clear that it does not trust Mahathir to fulfil his promise to resign in six months after becoming prime minister.

"You can have any agreement or mechanism, but when promises are always broken, it is very difficult to trust (Mahathir) again," said PKR Youth chief Akmal Nasir in a statement today.

This mistrust is not without basis.

In a leaked audio of a Bersatu meeting on the morning before Harapan's collapse in February, Mahathir had suggested that he could return as prime minister after resigning if Anwar is unable to secure majority support in the Dewan Rakyat.

He had said this while appealing to Bersatu leaders pressuring him to ditch Harapan to wait until then.

Such a scenario could repeat itself if the nonagenarian is returned to power for a third time, leading to another government collapse.

"If Mahathir becomes prime minister again, there is no guarantee that his supporters will back Anwar... this is not the best way forward," said Jeniri.

There is speculation that Anwar's camp is offering Mahathir's son Mukhriz the deputy prime minister position in order to secure the support of the former prime minister and his allies.

Such an arrangement could be made again to ensure a smooth transition should Harapan retake the government, but even this is no guarantee.

DAP said that Warisan had rejected the proposal for him to become prime minister and Mukhriz as his deputy and wants Mahathir at the helm.

However, Shafie had also reportedly rejected a proposal by Mahathir to extend his comeback to one year.

Warisan president Shafie Apdal was previously among the leaders linked to the move to set-up Perikatan Nasional. However, the Sabah chief minister and his party stood by Mahathir when the latter did not back the new political realignment.

Anwar, meanwhile, is said to be attempting to court GPS but the Sarawak ruling coalition has expressed its unwillingness to work with DAP, which is its strongest rival in the state, on numerous occassions.

'Focus on the base instead of positions'

With a countercoup fraught with disagreements and uncertainty, some believe that Harapan should instead focus on strengthening its base in preparation for a snap election - which Prime Minister Muhyiddin Yassin is considering once the country recovers from the Covid-19 pandemic.

Jeniri said this would be better than squabbling with each other while Wong said the coalition should be working the ground regardless of when the election is held.

"Harapan should work on the ground to bring its different constituencies together whether or not the election is in months or 2-3 years down the road," Wong said.

"They should be working out compromises at the societal level, especially on thorny issues like religion, ethnicity and language, and not just at the elite level over who gets what," he added.

Harapan's track record in by-elections had been dismal after the euphoria of its rise to power began to fade.

Since 2019, Harapan has lost three out of four parliamentary by-elections, including a massive drubbing in Tanjung Piai where BN recaptured the seat with a 15,086 majority.

Besides an upsurge of racial sentiment fanned by Umno and PAS, and dissatisfaction with the Harapan government's performance - the constant struggle between Mahathir and Anwar had also been cited as a factor for the coalition losing support.

While some believe that after two decades of fighting, both men should step aside, Wong, however, warned that such a power vacuum could have negative consequences.

"They are the core but not the whole problem. Behind the fight for prime ministership is the inter-ally struggle over ministerial positions and resources.

"Until and unless a package deal is reached, the sudden withdrawal of Mahathir and Anwar may trigger worse fights, because many ambitious politicians would want to try their luck," he said. - Mkini