Slim polls: Umno expected to win, but a lot bubbling under the surface

ANALYSIS | The forthcoming Slim by-election in Perak will be the second polls test since the Perikatan Nasional (PN) administration of Prime Minister Muhyiddin Yassin took power through the controversial Sheraton Move, which triggered the resignation of former prime minister Dr Mahathir Mohamad and the fall of the Pakatan Harapan government.

Unlike the Chini by-election in Pahang on July 4, in which Harapan stood aside and gave PN a virtual walkover, there will be a contest in Slim. 

The seat fell vacant after four-term incumbent Mohd Khusairi Abdul Talib passed away on July 15, from a cardiac arrest.

However, based on voting patterns in the 2018 general election, most people predict an easy win on the Aug 29 polling day for whichever candidate Umno/BN decides to field in the seat held by the late Khusairi since 2004.

In the 14th general election, Khusairi won the Slim seat defeating Bersatu's Mohd Amran Ibrahim and PAS’ Muhammad Zulfadli Zainal, by a majority of 2,183 votes. The combined votes for Umno/BN and PAS amounted to 65 percent.

It is notable that the voters in Slim are overwhelmingly Malay (75 percent) and Indians form the second largest group (13 percent), followed by the Chinese (10 percent) and others (two percent).

The balance of power in the state is not a factor as Perak Menteri Besar Ahmad Faizal Azumu, who is with Bersatu, enjoys a stronger majority under PN than he did under Harapan.

It is not anticipated that Slim will turn into a referendum by voters on the transfer of allegiance by Azumu at the state level, and Muhyiddin at the federal level.

Neither side has confirmed its candidate yet, ahead of the Aug 15 nomination day, but it has been agreed that PN will run a candidate from Umno, to be announced on Aug 12, while the faction of Bersatu that is loyal to Mahathir will field a candidate with Harapan's backing.

While an Umno win is strongly favoured, the Slim by-election does raise a number of pertinent questions, particularly with regard to inter-coalition cooperation.

On the one hand, how will Bersatu cooperate with Umno and PAS in the aftermath of last week's court verdict, in which former Umno leader Najib Abdul Razak was convicted handed a stiff jail sentence? 

This was swiftly followed by current Umno president Ahmad Zahid Hamidi saying that the party would remain in Muafakat Nasional but not formally join PN.

On the other hand, will the Harapan coalition of PKR, DAP and Amanah line up solidly behind the candidate who is fielded by Mahathir's faction, particularly after Perak PKR chief Farhash Wafa Salvador (below) made an instant attempt to stake a claim to the seat after Khusairi’s passing?

It also remains to be seen if the Slim by-election can be viewed as a barometer of public support for the two coalitions in the run-up to the Sabah state election, which have different dynamics at play, as well as if Mahathir still commands the support of the Malay electorate.

'Not an accurate test'

Analyst Wong Chin Huat feels that Slim does not provide an accurate test of either coalition's ability to work together.

“The real test for PN would involve seats the three parties want and where they stand a good chance - this is not as Umno and PAS combined were overwhelmingly strong versus Bersatu in GE14,” he explained.

Wong said other situations that might have provided a test for PN would include seats in which Umno incumbents had jumped to Bersatu, as well as areas where the opposition is strong and PN could not win without the dominant support of all three parties. However, neither of those situations apply in Slim's case.

“All we know is that neither (of the two parties which underwent recent splits) PKR nor Bersatu wanted a three-cornered fight, as they will be defeated badly. The state seat falls under PKR's Tanjung Malim parliamentary constituency but PKR is not strong in Perak, so this is very likely an Umno-Mahathir battle,” he added.

Professor Shamsul Amri Baharuddin is anticipating an easy victory for Umno and feels that PN is ahead of its rival in terms of working together.

“That all three parties (Bersatu, Umno and PAS) have agreed to field an Umno candidate for Slim shows that they can work together.

“PAS has become the moral stabiliser between 'corrupt' Umno and 'corrupt' Bersatu,” said the political analyst who is with Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia (UKM).

On the other hand, Shamsul said, while DAP and Amanah may give Mahathir’s candidate their backing, he was not so sure if PKR’s support would be forthcoming.

“This is because of the presence of the two influential leaders with a long history of 'tarik tali' (tug of war) – (PKR president) Anwar Ibrahim and Mahathir,” he told Malaysiakini.

Universiti Malaya sociopolitics professor Awang Azman Awang Pawi feels that while Umno has an easy win on paper, the new coalition should work even harder to show that under PN, Malay-Muslim support is at higher levels due to this new cooperation.

“This is the first real test of how Bersatu can work with Umno and PAS and prove that these three parties can move to be a strong coalition,” he said.

According to Awang, Harapan decided to back Mahathir’s candidate because it feels that the chances of winning Slim are low.

“After all, a loss will further lower the popularity of Mahathir's Bersatu Blackout, but will not affect Harapan,” he added.

He argued that a PKR candidate would have been more suitable and more likely to increase voter support, even if there was no guarantee of winning.

Awang said the PN campaign is likely to play up its success at addressing the Covid-19 pandemic and the image of a Malay-Muslim government.

Analyst Khoo Kay Peng concurred, saying: "As long as Bersatu is not vying for the seat, I am sure Umno will not decline their support."

Khoo said there was a possibility that PKR, and even some DAP leaders aligned to Anwar, would not necessarily lend their full support to a Mahathir-backed candidate.

"Also, Najib's conviction would be a concern, but I think our electorates are not too worried about corruption cases compared with identity/personality politics," he added.

'Mahathir is becoming irrelevant'

Kartini Aboo Talib Khalid of the Institute of Ethnic Studies, UKM, is of the opinion that Mahathir's appeal has finally diminished.

“Mahathir is becoming irrelevant, no matter how iconic he was before,” Kartini told Malaysiakini.

“The Harapan leaders have already closed their door on him and he was cast out from Bersatu. The respect for him will always be there, yet it is just a memory of the past,” she added.

Kartini said the selection of a candidate, her or her service, track record and local appeal, would be more of a factor in the Slim polls.

“In this case, contemporary issues play a vital role, especially in the era of the Covid-19 pandemic, including unemployment, safety and security, the prices of goods, education in the new normal and the digital divide between urban and rural communities (are all factors),” she noted.  

The analysts also cited limited campaign access due to Covid-19 and the movement control order's standard operating procedures as another reason it would be difficult to reach voters and convince them to change their minds.

Sabah a different game altogether

Wong said that Sabah would provide many interesting challenges to PN that are not being seen in Slim.

“Sabah's flashpoint (within the coalition) is whether Umno would claim those seats held by Umno defectors to Bersatu.

“It is a question of precedent. If Sabah Bersatu gets to keep Sabah state seats that were won under Umno, they would want the same for (the five) federal seats too, and 10 more in Peninsular Malaysia.

“If Umno concedes that in Sabah, Bersatu would have a stronger claim to the prime ministership after GE15. But that would sound like Najib's 'Geng Mahkamah' (Umno leaders with court cases) saying 'ok' to Muhyuddin” he added.

Shamsul Amri said that while Slim is an important indicator of whether Umno, Bersatu and PAS can work together in Sabah, they would have to make sure that they can also work together with other parties in Sabah that are now supporting PN.

However, Kartini pointed out that relative to Sabah, politics in the peninsula was different.

“There is a huge difference ranging from which political parties that formed the alliance and the parties' motives/agendas. Thus, the by-election in Slim will have limited impact on the Sabah polls,” she added. - Mkini