Analysts: Umno's support for PM temporary, may only last during pandemic

 

The Umno supreme council last night reaffirmed the party's decision to continue their support for the Perikatan Nasional government led by Muhyiddin Yassin, and reject any cooperation with PKR and DAP.

This comes just a week after party president Ahmad Zahid Hamidi announced that Umno would strengthen cooperation with all PN parties, after having earlier said that they want to review their support for the ruling coalition.

While this may give a breathing room for the embattled prime minister, does Umno's latest decision means that Muhyiddin's government is in a totally safe position?

Several analysts contacted by Malaysiakini said while the announcement does give the Bersatu president more time in power, it might be a temporary thing.

"The main factor why Muhyiddin remains as the prime minister until today is due to the pandemic, which situation has yet to die down," said geostrategist Azmi Hassan.

The Universiti Teknologi Malaysia academician claimed that even in Umno, the leaders have split views on the issue with one wanting the party to go with opposition chief Anwar Ibrahim, while the other still supporting Muhyiddin.

Azmi said although the supreme council decided to support Muhyiddin instead of working with Anwar's PKR, the situation serves as a warning to Muhyiddin that Umno is not going to stay long.

"The differing views in Umno are actually more detrimental to Muhyiddin.

"With such alternatives pitched to the council, it is a caution to Muhyiddin that Umno's support for him is only temporary. I expect that this might last until the pandemic eases a little bit," he added.

Azizuddin Mohd Sani of Universiti Utara Malaysia also throws in a similar take, saying that the support might only last until the government can tackle Covid-19 outbreak and its economic fallouts.

However, according to him, this has also given Muhyiddin more time to mend PN's relationship with Umno.

"Like what Umno had announced earlier, their support is only a ceasefire. So this is temporary support by Umno until the PN government can manage the pandemic and the economy.

"But this does give Muhyiddin the time and room to discuss with Umno towards strengthening PN administration. If it works out."

James Chin (photo), a professor of Asian Studies at the University of Tasmania, believes that while the supreme council had rejected any cooperation with PKR and DAP, opportunity still exists for Anwar.

This depends on how much the PKR president is willing to compromise in bargaining with Umno.

"Yes, Umno (decided they) will not work with PKR or DAP. But the way I understand it is... I think they would be willing to work with PKR if they can get enough concessions from Anwar.

"The problem is that I am not sure if Anwar is willing to give the concession they want. Because they are trying to get the same concession from Muhyiddin as well," he said.

While Chin did not elaborate on what the concession was, it is understood that he was referring to Umno's dissatisfaction with distribution of power and positions between parties that make the government of the day.

In last night's statement, Zahid had also mentioned the party's demand for improvement on the principles of their cooperation, which is to be "based on values of honour and political consensus".

On Oct 13, when Zahid announced Umno political bureau's decision that the party should consider withdrawing its support for PN, he also said that they want to set new terms for continuing its cooperation with the PN government.

For the record, the PN government's fate is hanging onto a mere two-seat majority in the Dewan Rakyat, which has a total of 222 seats. This is based on the number of MPs who sat on the government's side during the Parliament sitting in May. 

Anwar, who now chairs the Pakatan Harapan opposition coalition, had made an announcement in September where he claimed to have secured the support from the majority of parliamentarians.

The opposition chief had told a press conference on Sept 23 that he has a "formidable" number to form a government but did not announce the exact figure nor list of MPs who are backing him.

This has sparked speculations that Umno MPs were among those purportedly going to desert Muhyiddin. It was further fanned by Zahid's announcement later the same day that many BN and Umno MPs have voiced support for Anwar.  

However, for the record, PKR's allies in Harapan include DAP, which is considered a traditional enemy for Umno.

While Umno has 39 MPs that can help Anwar achieve his plan to become a prime minister, he on the other hand has to maintain ties with DAP, which has 42 seats. - Mkini