Political ceasefire: Expected but the battle may not be over

 

Umno has finally put a lid on internal grumblings with Perikatan Nasional (PN), by calling for a ceasefire and reaffirming its support for the governing coalition.

This came as a surprise for most political observers, as Umno's political bureau had just last week called for a review of its relationship with PN.

In a statement yesterday, Umno's president Ahmad Zahid Hamidi claimed that he represented the party's collective position in calling for a ceasefire and instructed the party's cabinet members to focus on dealing with the Covid-19 pandemic.

Normally, Umno would announce policy positions by passing resolutions at the supreme council, the party's executive body, and announce it later.

The supreme council has not met this month. It was scheduled to meet yesterday but was cancelled at the eleventh hour.

Here are some of the immediate implications coming out from Zahid's pronouncement.

Game over for Anwar?

Since Sept 23, PKR president Anwar Ibrahim had made known his attempts to form a new government.

He was hamstrung from the start - he couldn't make his case immediately to the Yang di-Pertuan Agong, who was seeking medical treatment at the time.

It took three weeks before Anwar was finally granted an audience on Oct 13 and the Agong has postponed summoning party heads for interviews due to stay-at-home restrictions.

The Port Dickson MP gained momentum when the Umno political bureau, in a very rare move, released a statement stating that the party should renegotiate terms with PN or consider withdrawing support.

However, Anwar's rivals had ample time to pacify would-be defectors, who at the time were very likely to be from Umno and had made the party’s demands for Prime Minister Muhyiddin Yassin crystal clear.

Now that Zahid has pledged support for PN, which was explicitly acknowledged by PKR last night, Anwar's latest "numbers gambit" is expected to almost certainly falter again.

PN is not breaking up, for now

Simmering tensions between Umno and Bersatu came to a boil after the Sabah election, which saw Umno losing out on the coveted chief ministership, despite winning more seats than Bersatu.

Umno top brass was quick to heap pressure on Zahid for “giving in” to Bersatu, an Umno splinter party, yet again, culminating in the political bureau’s threat to withdraw from PN.

With Zahid’s latest instructions for Umno’s rank-and-file to provide full backing for PN, Bersatu and Muhyiddin appear as secure as they were when he first took power in March.

Zahid had clearly outlined that the rationale for the ceasefire and support for PN was to focus on the worsening Covid-19 crisis, which had ironically helped PN and Muhyiddin cling to power for longer.

However, the ultimate test of Umno’s loyalty will come on Nov 23, when the first round of voting on Budget 2021 is set to take place.

Concessions for Umno?

Umno’s de-escalation of tensions will no doubt trigger interest in what sort of concessions that it gained from Muhyiddin and Bersatu.

One oft-repeated speculation was that Umno wanted more critical positions in the cabinet, including that of deputy prime minister, putting them in position to control powerful cabinet committees.

Any attempt by prosecutors to drop graft cases against Umno figures might also be interpreted as a form of concession.

Leaving this episode without any form of concessions will likely sour Zahid’s chances of retaining his position as Umno president when his term is up for renewal come 2021.

GE15 talks likely to subside

Umno’s climbdown, coupled with Sabah and Klang Valley’s struggle to keep Covid-19 numbers under control, will likely dampen snap election talks which have been rife since PN took power in March.

Political stability would allow PN and Muhyiddin to burnish their credentials as the nation’s stewards during a pandemic before calling for the next polls.

However, sources close to PN have indicated the ruling coalition is not letting its guard down and is preparing for potential surprises in Parliament, and the possibility of a snap election.

 - Mkini