Warisan in driver’s seat after nation’s political stalemate, says analyst

 

Warisan, led by Shafie Apdal, can hold the key if the GRS government collapses. (Bernama pic)

KOTA KINABALU: Warisan could find itself back in the political limelight both at state and federal levels after Umno retracted its support for Prime Minister Muhyiddin Yassin last week.

Socio-political analyst Awang Azman Pawi said the question mark over Muhyiddin’s majority support has placed Warisan in a somewhat pivotal position.

Although Sabah Umno chief Bung Moktar Radin said last week his party will ensure Gabungan Rakyat Sabah (GRS) remains intact, Awang Azman said Umno will need Warisan’s help to form the next state government in the event the party does pull out of the coalition.

“This is the role that Warisan could play where it can actively shift support under the principle that there are no permanent friends and enemies in politics … the only thing that’s permanent is a political party’s interest,” he told FMT.

Awang Azman Pawi.

Sabah Umno has 14 state seats and two nominated representatives in the state assembly while Warisan, led by Shafie Apdal, has 22 seats.

GRS could be left with only 32 seats, including four nominated assemblymen, in the state assembly compared to the 38 by Sabah Umno and Warisan if they were to team up.

DAP, which has six seats, PKR (two) and Upko (one) will unlikely back GRS, which will then lead to the coalition’s collapse.

Another possibility, Awang Azman said, is that the Sabah opposition parties might not specifically form a coalition with Sabah Umno but they may just support a state government not led by Bersatu or Perikatan Nasional (PN).

“This is what happened in Perak where the Bersatu deputy president, Ahmad Faizal Azumu, was ousted as the menteri besar after ‘non-official cooperation’ (between Umno and Pakatan Harapan).

“In the Sabah context, if such a movement happens, then Umno can work with Warisan and PH if the situation between Umno and Bersatu in Putrajaya gets worse,” he said.

This, however, could be difficult to achieve due to the tense relations between Warisan and PKR now, he said. But if it happens, it will add on to the political pressure across the pond and possibly trigger Umno’s next move at the federal level.

“But in any case, Warisan appears to be in the driving seat. As a result, they can set their own conditions such as asking for the chief minister’s seat,” Awang Azman said.

At the federal level, he said, Warisan’s eight MPs could also play a key role towards shoring up the majority support.

“If Umno really aspires for a change in the leadership from all aspects, then it has to start from Sabah, to get the ball rolling and later to be followed in the peninsula.

“And this has to happen quickly as the situation there has slowed down after the attorney-general’s statement (over Muhyiddin still having the majority) and the prime minister’s own silence over the matter,” he said.

Romzi Ationg.

Universiti Malaysia Sabah senior lecturer Romzi Ationg said that despite Bung’s statement over Umno’s allegiance to GRS, there is no stopping any of the Umno or GRS assemblymen from looking elsewhere to ensure their political relevance and self-preservation, in case the government falls.

“For now, things seemed to have cooled down after Bung’s remarks but it doesn’t mean Sabah Umno’s approach cannot change, particularly involving its MPs and assemblymen.

“That is also the case for elected representatives from other parties. Sabah is used to such a situation,” he said. - FMT