Has Gerak Independent lost the plot?

 

“Pride goeth before a fall” - traditional

The withdrawal of public interest group Gerak Independent’s (GI) candidate, former journalist and lawyer Charles Chow, for the Subang parliamentary constituency has not only thrown GI into disarray but raised questions as to whether it has lost the plot as far as GE15 is concerned.

GI has been very heavily criticised for targeting constituencies held by the opposition, PKR (4 seats) and DAP (1), and in seats which were easily won by them in the last elections. So what does it hope to do for the greater good by targeting these seats? Are the candidates going for winnable seats?

One can reasonably assume that most right-thinking Malaysians do not want Umno and its allies, which have demonstrated that there is no end to the corruption and malpractices they are prepared to descend to, to come to power.

The idea therefore is to cobble together, if at all possible, a grouping of opposition groups which will cooperate to ensure that the current Umno/Bersatu/PAS/MCA/MIC and other alliances will collapse and return power to the opposition.

Surely that cannot mean further dividing opposition votes by coming in as independents. Mind you, this group is not registered as a political party, has no infrastructure and no formal members. This means that these independents will have to totally depend on other opposition parties’ infrastructure and support to have any hope of winning.

But by prematurely announcing that they will be contesting easily winnable seats currently held by PKR and DAP, the two main parties in the Pakatan Harapan coalition, they have affected their own chances. Why on earth should any Harapan component accord GI that privilege?

A near-impossible task faces GI candidates announced so far. The table of selected parliament seats and their results show sizable margins and why there is hardly any hope for GI to win those seats or even to get support from Harapan to contest those seats.

Non-performing MPs?

Let’s take Subang, which was originally to be contested by GI’s Charles Chow who has now withdrawn. Wong Chen won it by a huge majority of over 90,000 votes, getting some nine times his opponent’s votes.

And by no stretch of the imagination can he be called a non-performing MP, a justification used by some GI candidates for contesting against Harapan. There are many worse government MPs than the ones GI is proposing to contest against.

Batu was won by then independent P Prabakaran with a huge majority too when the independent candidate got PKR’s endorsement after its popular Tian Chua was disqualified at GE14. PKR actively campaigned for Prabakaran.

There is no likelihood that PKR will surrender this seat to GI just so there is an independent voice or few in Parliament. And the same applies to the other seats, Petaling Jaya with Maria Chin Abdullah winning easily, Wangsa Maju with Tan Yee Kew and Chan Foong Hin in Kota Kinabalu.

Perhaps GI feels it can win if it goes against Harapan candidates here. That’s a foolhardy thought indeed because none of the candidates so far announced for particular seats has that kind of presence in the community. All they will do - and even that is doubtful - is to serve as a spoiler which may help the current government coalition instead of the opposition.

If GI for a moment thinks they can win as independents, the last line on the table shows the results for Sungai Siput where the results were closer. It was a fight between PKR and MIC with SK Devamany losing out to S Kesavan.

The MP there, Michael Jeyakumar Devaraj won in 2013 standing on the PKR ticket. He used the PSM platform in GE14 after PSM ceased being ‘part’ of PKR and lost his deposit, garnering just 1,505 votes. Devaraj, then contesting under PKR, will be remembered as the David who killed Goliath S Samy Vellu in Sungai Siput, then president of MIC in the 2008 elections.

Devaraj was known to have been an outstanding MP, producing papers and speaking in Parliament about many important issues. He was also hard working in his constituency of Sungai Siput where he served his constituents diligently and by some accounts dug into his own pockets to help them.

Devaraj did not stand a chance because of the arrival of coalition politics. If you are not part of one of the two main coalitions in the peninsula, forget about winning - even if you were an MP for two terms in that area. If GI does not realise that then they realise nothing.

Devaraj contested under a party which has infrastructure, supporters and party members. He also had substantial name recognition and a dream track record of dedication and service. Yet he lost his deposit. Most independents end up getting less than 200 votes.

Wise move by Tawfik

The only possibility for a GI candidate to win is for its titular head, Mohd Tawfik Ismail, who has so far not announced the seat for his candidacy. That’s a wise move because any such announcement at this stage is way too premature - it is time for talking about seat possibilities in the background to gauge the temperature and do what is possible.

Tawfik has talked about Langkawi, Pagoh, Ampang, Simpang Renggam, Pontian, and Mersing as possible choices for his seat. If he wants to win, he needs to be allied to the opposition Harapan.

The best chance could be Mersing once held by his father, former deputy prime minister Dr Ismail Abdul Rahman. He has name recognition in Johor and particularly in Mersing. It’s a tough seat, won four times in succession for Umno by Abdul Latiff Ahmad. He jumped ship to Bersatu in 2019.

Abdul Latiff, however, is no political lightweight, currently a minister in the PM’s Department for special functions and previously minister of rural development in Muhyiddin Yassin’s government.

But it is a seat which GI’s Tawfik may have a reasonable chance of getting and which PKR may support. After all, it was won by Umno and now is held by Bersatu. PKR can perhaps afford one independent voice - six is way too much already, let alone 15.

Charles Chow made a wise decision to withdraw his candidature even though it came a bit late in the day and affected GI badly. Better the issues facing GI be thrashed out and decided now instead of later when it may be too late to avert serious mistakes and humiliating defeats.

Pride often goeth before a fall. - Mkini

---

P GUNASEGARAM, a former editor at online and print news publications, and head of equity research, is an independent writer and consultant.