How Will The Johor Voters Swing After 4 Years?

 

So what financial benefit will it be to the Johor voters to vote Umno-BN, DAP-Pakatan or Bersatu-Perikatan (whatever the case may be)? That is what the contesting parties need to convince the Johor voters about. Civil liberties and freedom to organise sex parties and have gay marriages are not of interest to the Johor Malays. Food on the table is.

NO HOLDS BARRED

Raja Petra Kamarudin

Let us look at Malaysia’s 1995, 1999, 2004 and 2008 parliamentary general elections. The swing from one general election to another is like a pendulum where BN won 65%, 56%, 64%, and 51% of the votes respectively. There are reasons for this, of course, but the point is it can happen. The votes can swing one way, and then the other way, very easily, as history has shown.

Going by the recent Melaka and Sarawak state elections, it appears like Umno-Barisan Nasional is back. Is this winning streak going to be maintained in the Johor state election?

In Sarawak, Pakatan Harapan won only 10% of the votes and GPS won 61%,

In Melaka it was a different story. Umno-BN won 38% of the votes, DAP-Pakatan won 36% of the votes, and Bersatu-Perikatan won 24% of the votes. In the state election before that, Umno-BN won 38% of the votes as well. But then it was against only Pakatan, and not Pakatan-Perikatan. Hence this time around the anti-government votes were split because of a three-way contest.

So, is the Umno-BN swing real or an illusion? If the Melaka state election had been just BN versus PH, rather than a three-corner contest, would Umno-BN have won (or won with flying colours)?

In the 2018 Johor state election, Pakatan Harapan won 57% of the votes versus Umno-BN’s 40%. However, 16% of Pakatan’s 57% came from Bersatu. That means Pakatan minus Bersatu won only 41%, versus Umno-BN’s 40%, a 50-50 situation. Hence, in a sense, Bersatu was the kingmaker.

Some intelligence reports say Umno-BN is going to make a comeback in the ongoing Johor state elections. Other intelligence reports say Umno-BN will struggle to scrape through with just 50% of the votes. How strong is Umno-BN in Johor and will the Muhyiddin-Bersatu factor have any effect on the results?

Even in the UK it is all about money, not about freedom to have anal sex

History has proven that voters are fickle and unpredictable. What the Johor voters will do, and for what reason they will do it, is certainly going to be interesting. But at the end of the day voters will think with their stomach. It’s all about bread-and-butter issues (plus a roof over your head and clothes on your back).

DAP and Pakatan Harapan talk about justice, equality, transparency, accountability, separation of powers, democracy, freedom of speech, freedom of choice, etc. Try telling that to mothers who need to sell one kidney so that they can feed their starving children (of course, not yet in Malaysia, though).

In 2018, Malays voted Pakatan because they were promised more money in their pockets if they do so (no more GST, no more toll charges, minyak turun ke RM1.50, cars and motorcycles will become cheaper, free this and free that, etc.). When they did not end up with more money in their pocket (in fact, they actually ended up with less money) they swung back.

So what financial benefit will it be to the Johor voters to vote Umno-BN, DAP-Pakatan or Bersatu-Perikatan (whatever the case may be)? That is what the contesting parties need to convince the Johor voters about. Civil liberties and freedom to organise sex parties and have gay marriages are not of interest to the Johor Malays. Food on the table is.