Youth voters in Johor attracted to Umno, not PN - analysts

 

JOHOR POLLS | Youth voters continue to be an important prospect that is said to be a potential deciding factor for victory in the upcoming Johor polls on March 12.

In the 14th general election (GE14), these voters were often linked to a strong anti-establishment trend that eventually led to the downfall of the Umno-BN government after decades. 

According to political analyst Azmi Hassan, it would not be easy to gauge the trend in Johor for the upcoming state election given that there had been three changes in state administrations from Pakatan Harapan to Perikatan Nasional (PN) and BN since GE14.

With defections blurring the line of separation between those in government, opposition and their supporters in Johor, Azmi said youth voters are expected to follow the trend seen during the recent Sarawak election, which is to go against Putrajaya.

Youth leaning towards state interests

Youth voters, Azmi said, would lean towards voting for a coalition that offers a menteri besar candidate seen to be brave in opposing the federal government and make decisions that prioritise the interests of Johoreans, fueled by their strong “Bangsa Johor” identity. 

"Johor is rather unique in a sense as they (voters) see themselves as 'Bangsa Johor' that prioritises interests of the state. Voters will vote based on the menteri besar candidate.

"The necessary criteria for a menteri besar is that one, they must have good ties with the place. And second, the menteri besar must dare to stand up to Putrajaya," Azmi said when contacted yesterday.

"That is how I feel. The youth voters, unlike older voters, will choose who to lead the state government from among those who dare to make extreme, unexpected decisions," he added.

On the other hand, Azmi said youth voters in Johor now dare to vote for candidates regardless of their parties, also in line with the spirit of placing the state's interests above all others.

Harapan made history in 2018 when it ended decades of Umno rule in Johor and formed the state government. 

Political manoeuvrings, however, led to two subsequent power grabs, from Harapan to PN in 2019 and once again to BN in 2020. 

The political dynamics between PN and BN have been complicated, with open attacks made among component party leaders but yet remaining in the same government at the federal level and in several state governments, including Johor up until its dissolution.

The last BN-PN Johor government comprised 14 Umno assemblypersons, followed by Bersatu (11), MIC (2), and PAS (1), led by Umno’s incumbent Benut representative Hasni Mohammad as menteri besar. 

It had a one-seat majority after the death of Bersatu's Kempas assemblyperson Osman Sapian, while Harapan held 27 seats.

Umno ‘opposition-like’

Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia political analyst Jamaie Hamil said while Umno had led the last state government, the party's recent posturing against PN had made it stand out as opposition-like in the eyes of younger voters.

"The trend of younger voters in Johor, they see Umno as an opposition that they would consider voting for.

"Because if we observe, Umno has cut ties with Bersatu and can be said to have severed ties with PAS that only has one seat," he said.

"So, I see a trend of younger voters who will vote for the 'opposition' to replace the unstable government in Johor, even though the (incumbent) menteri besar was from Umno, the coalition was not all from Umno-BN.

"They will give their votes to Umno-BN in the Johor polls so the coalition will win big and form a stable government," he told Malaysiakini.

Based on the observation, Jamaie predicted that Umno-BN in Johor will be able to recreate the coalition's success in Malacca, even with the addition of some 750,000 new voters aged below 21-years-old.

"If possible, they do not want a repeat of past instabilities after GE14. That means for the next five years, if possible they want a stable government for them to be involved and gain benefits from," he said.

Jamaie added that Umno-BN is predicted to form a state government with a comfortable majority even with the increase of younger voters. - Mkini