The 7 seats to watch in the Negeri Sembilan election

 Political analysts weigh in on the key battlegrounds as incumbents, former allies and high-profile contenders vie for control of the state assembly.

PETALING JAYA:

Come Saturday, when Negeri Sembilan goes to the polls, will the tide turn for Pakatan Harapan (PH) or will Barisan Nasional (BN) build on the momentum from its landslide win in Johor?

For better or worse, the contest is a battle between PH and BN with Perikatan Nasional (PN) by its side.

PH is vying for all 36 seats while BN is gunning for 25, leaving the remaining 11 to its partner PN.

Bersatu, despite remaining in PN, is contesting 24 seats under its own logo after breaking ranks with PAS but, by most accounts, it is unlikely to make an impact.

Smaller parties such as Muda, Pejuang and Parti Bersama Malaysia have wisely opted to stay at the ringside while the big boys fight it out.

Most pundits have placed their bets on another BN victory, but not every seat is a sure thing for either side.

FMT asked political analysts Azmi Hassan of Akademi Nusantara, Mazlan Ali of Universiti Teknologi Malaysia and Awang Azman Pawi of Universiti Malaya to assess seven of the election’s key battlegrounds, and these are their takes on the election.

Linggi

Menteri besar Aminuddin Harun has opted to leave Sikamat, a seat he held for 18 years, to contest in Linggi, an Umno bastion. Linggi has been in BN’s hands since 1978.

The seat is one of five in his Port Dickson parliamentary constituency, making it a direct test of his personal appeal beyond his traditional stronghold.

Aminuddin will face incumbent Faizal Ramli of BN, who served alongside him in the Negeri Sembilan executive council as heritage, technology, innovation and digital committee chairman, as well as Bersatu’s Zamri Said, who lost in the constituency in 2023.

Analysts’ verdict:
Azmi: PH
Mazlan and Awang: BN

Chennah

DAP secretary-general Loke Siew Fook is seeking a fourth consecutive term in Chennah, one of the party’s safest seats and one he has held since 2013.

He won the seat by a 2,200-vote majority in the 2023 state election, but previous contests had been much closer. Loke defeated BN-MCA by 1,155 votes in 2018 in a three-cornered fight that included PAS, and by 1,098 votes in 2013 in a straight fight.

While PH remains the favourite, the mixed constituency will be closely watched as shifts in Malay, Chinese and Orang Asli sentiments could determine the size of Loke’s majority.

Loke will face Negeri Sembilan MCA Youth chief Siow Kong Chun.

Analysts’ verdict:
PH

Sikamat

Aminuddin’s political secretary Nor Azman Mohamad has been fielded in the seat his boss previously held for four terms, turning the contest into a test of whether PH’s machinery can muster enough support without the menteri besar’s personal appeal.

Aminuddin first won Sikamat in 2008 by a narrow 499-vote margin and retained it in 2013 with a 510-vote majority. Despite facing more crowded four-cornered contests in 2018 and 2023, he went on to secure much larger victories, widening his majority to 3,413 and 2,662 votes respectively.

PN is fielding former Melaka deputy police chief Razali Abu Samah, while Bersatu information chief Tun Faisal Ismail Aziz is also in the race.

Analysts’ verdict:
Azmi: PH
Mazlan: 50/50 between PH and PN
Awang: PN

Jeram Padang

MIC first won the seat for BN in 1995 and went on to hold it for six consecutive terms. But it sat out the 2023 state election under a deal struck between BN and PH.

Umno’s Zaidy Abdul Kadir won the seat that year and will defend it this time. However, Zaidy secured victory by just 693 votes then, an indication that BN’s hold onto it remains fragile.

This time, the contest is a four-cornered fight involving Zaidy, PH’s former Kapar MP G Manivannan, Bersatu’s R Sri Sanjeevan and an Orang Asli candidate.

The mixed constituency has one of the highest proportions of Indian voters in the state at 33.2%, while Malays make up 52.3%, Chinese 9.3% and Orang Asli 4.5% of the electorate.

Analysts’ verdict:
BN

Lenggeng

Amanah won the seat for PH in the 2018 general election before it was handed over to Umno for the 2023 state election when BN and PH contested as allies.

Umno’s Asna Amin went on to win the seat with a 685-vote majority, compared with Amanah’s 986-vote margin of victory in 2018.

With BN and PH now contesting separately, PH is seeking to reclaim the seat, while BN’s cooperation with PN adds another layer to the fight that will also see Bersatu in the fray.

Asna, who served as deputy speaker of the Negeri Sembilan state assembly, will defend the seat in the closely watched contest.

Analysts’ verdict:
Azmi and Awang: BN
Mazlan: 50/50 between PH and BN

Labu

Labu has changed hands twice in recent elections, with PKR wresting the seat from Umno in 2018 by 882 votes before Bersatu captured it for PN in 2023 with a 1,640-vote majority.

This time, both PH and BN are looking to reclaim the Malay-majority seat, while incumbent Hanifah Abu Baker of Bersatu will defend it.

Bersatu faces a tougher contest this round as it is contesting under its own logo, while PN has directed its members to support BN candidates in seats where the two coalitions are working together.

Analysts’ verdict:
Azmi and Awang: BN
Mazlan: 50/50 between PH and BN

Ampangan

Ampangan has a history of close contests, having swung between BN-Umno and PH-PKR three times between 2008 and 2018 before PH narrowly retained it in 2023 by just 329 votes.

Adding to the intrigue in the three-cornered fight is former PKR assemblyman Rafie Abd Malek, who won the seat for PH in 2018 but was later dropped in 2023. He later joined PAS and is now contesting under the PN banner.

Analysts’ verdict:
Azmi and Awang: PN
Mazlan: 50/50 between PH and PN

- FMT