Outstation voters can be the key

 

Front of the line: From left to right) Nor Azuim Mohammed Johari, 19, Nurisyia Hisham, 20, and Nur Syamimie Afeeda Ahmad Syiham, 21, are among security personnel who cast their ballots in the 16th Negri Sembilan Election at the Army Basic Training Centre in Port Dickson. — MUHAMAD SHAHRIL ROSLI/The Star

PETALING JAYA: Several closely watched seats in the Negri Sembilan election could hinge on whether outstation voters return to cast their ballots, with analysts saying their turnout could prove decisive in marginal constituencies.

Political observers say if many of them return, it could determine the outcome in the event of a close fight in these seats.

Parties and analysts have identified key seats with a high number of outstation voters, using population movement patterns and constituency profiles.

These seats include Johol, Seri Menanti, Pertang, Pilah, Juasseh, Senaling, Gemas, Jeram Padang, Serting, Kota, Lenggeng, Klawang, Sg Lui and Gemencheh.

Universiti Malaya political analyst Dr Mohammad Tawfik Yaakub said outstation votes are important, especially in marginal seats.

Citing an example, he said Seri Menanti is the most vulnerable to changes in outstation voter turnout after Barisan Nasional won the seat by just 370 votes in the 2023 state election.

He said the impact of returning voters would depend on several factors, including shifts in voter sentiment, turnout among local residents and the ability of parties to mobilise supporters living outside the state.

Universiti Malaya socio-political analyst Prof Datuk Dr Awang Azman Awang Pawi also said outstation voters could play a bigger role in this election, particularly those working in Kuala Lumpur and Selangor.

“Negri Sembilan’s proximity to the Klang Valley reduces the financial and logistical barriers to returning home,” he said.

He expects relatively strong turnout from Klang Valley-based voters, adding that close contests will amplify their impact.

“Nearly one-third of Negri Sembilan’s constituencies was decided by fewer than 1,000 votes in 2023, meaning the return or absence of several hundred outstation voters could change the outcome in individual seats,” he said.

Awang Azman said the 2023 turnout of 68.35% partly reflected the lower intensity normally associated with a stand-alone state election.

“For this election, the Election Commission is targeting a turnout of between 72% and 75%.

“This suggests that outstation mobilisation will be one of the key factors in determining whether that target is achieved,” he said.

However, he warned that outstation voters should not be viewed as a single voting bloc.

“Many younger voters are less attached to traditional party machinery and may evaluate the election based on national economic conditions, employment opportunities, living costs, candidate quality and information encountered on social media,” he said.

Universiti Sains Malaysia’s political analyst Prof Datuk Dr Sivamurugan Pandian concurred that outstation voters could be a crucial factor, particularly in marginal constituencies where small changes in turnout could affect the outcome.

He said their impact would depend on three factors – turnout, campaign momentum and the competitiveness of individual seats.

“Higher turnout among returning voters could benefit parties with stronger grassroots machinery and mobilisation networks, while those living outside the state may also be influenced by broader national issues and late campaign developments,” he said.

“In constituencies decided by only a few hundred votes previously, even a modest increase in returning voters could determine the winner.” - Star