If elections are held soon, it’s likely a hung parliament, with no single coalition getting a clear majority to rule.
That spells compromising to satisfy all and satiating no one, a recipe for uncertainty and the consequent trials and tribulations.
Looking beyond the Negeri Sembilan polls, the canvas looks bleak and foreboding with patches of sunshine here and there.
PKR, with 31 parliamentary seats, will be more or less destroyed, with support waning rapidly among both Malays and non-Malays.
Breakaway Parti Bersama Malaysia is likely to take some seats in urban areas or at the very least spoil it for PKR and DAP.
DAP, the other main party within the Pakatan Harapan coalition, is facing a crisis of credibility with its support base of Chinese and urban voters eroding rapidly.
Nobody I know expects Harapan to be the main driving force, if ever it was, in the next unity coalition, with everyone pretty sure that Harapan will be pushed out of the driver’s seat and into opposition.
Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim must see the cards stacked against him, which means he will let his tenure go to full term and then most likely retire after that.
At 79 this year, he is hardly the person to take the country to new heights. He had his chance and blew it.
Even if he wants to switch sides to the winning coalition/electoral pact, they may not want him, even if he has willingly or unwittingly handed the mantle to them on a platter by his inaction and inaptitude, losing support from all quarters.
PN, the dominant partner
Remember PAS’ main partner in the Perikatan Nasional coalition is now Hamzah Zainudin’s Parti Wawasan Negara.
In the BN/PN coalition or electoral pact, it will be PN which will be the dominant partner.
Umno-BN is not really the phoenix rising from the ashes, even if things go well in terms of the electoral pact with PAS-PN.
If nobody derails the train, it is almost inevitable that if they combined, PN and BN will be the ones asked to form the government.
Currently, PN controls 62 parliamentary seats (PAS 43, and Wawasan Negara, 19). Given their current strength, they could take the total in a new election to over 80.
If BN can take their number to over 40 from the 30 held, PN and BN are set to form the next government on their own.
In the current 222-seat Dewan Rakyat, 112 gives a majority.
Sabah and Sarawak will be induced to join the winning side, and they will be part of quite a solid pact, even a two-thirds majority. But a pact with no direction and strategy for the future.
PAS will lead the team of PN-BN as Bersatu remains totally sidelined, although it may give up the reins to someone in Umno or to the other major partner, Wawasan Negara, in the revitalised PN-BN electoral pact, for the prime minister’s position.
No Islamic law for all
It would not lead to Islamic law for everyone, which would require a two-thirds majority. There is a body of opinion that says even then, it will go against the basic doctrine of the Federal Constitution if it is done, opening legal challenges.
Even if it is put to parliamentary vote, the move to create an Islamic state for all is unlikely to succeed because Sabah and Sarawak will largely not support it.
The non-Muslim components of BN too will oppose it.
More frightening than an Islamic state is that the non-existent fight against corruption will descend into an open support for it to fund the various parties, cultivate breeds of businesspeople who support the government, and the ignorance of all public revelations of corruption and misgovernance.
It’s a continuation of the Madani government but only much worse, a descent into the downward spiral of Umno politics which has cost the country dearly over the decades.
Spawning rapacious behaviour
It will enrich the already rich, ignoring the plight of poor Malays and others, and spawn more rapacious behaviour exemplified by the 1MDB scandal, losing RM42 billion in loans stolen and perhaps over RM100 billion in opportunity costs.
And even in the house arrest/pardon of one of the main perpetrators.
As corruption increases, expect racism to rise. The current crop of politicians still believe that racism will unite groups to support the more dangerous corruption that they will be pushing. Malaysians are no longer convinced of that rhetoric, though.
The unique Bersama
In the meantime, Bersama is the only party that is not playing racial politics among those considered to be in contention, if not now, then in the future.
But all they are likely to do in the immediate future is to get a few seats and maintain the fight for the long term.
At the 17th general election, five to seven years from now, they may make some headway, especially with the young, our hope for the future.
However, they will probably need another five years to make a real difference and have a shot at becoming the dominant party.
The problem that faces Malaysia now is one of poor leadership. It's true what they say about others being worse than Anwar. But unless there is some change, there is no impetus towards better leadership further out. Change forces new leaders to emerge.
A new set of longer-term younger leaders is our only hope for change in the future.
The current leadership espousing patronage politics, which implies continued corruption, has to go or be forced out over time.
After GE16, it's going to be more of the same with the probability of greater misgovernance.
Priorities for economic development and better living standards will be misplaced in favour of the narrow interests of a few. The future is foreboding indeed.
A silver lining
The only silver lining is that in the likely event that the new coalition leading the government misgoverns, there will be greater impetus for change then, and perhaps Bersama might become an acceptable alternative, although it may take GE18 before it can take over.
For most Malaysians, it means making the best of a bad situation now, doing what is possible within current constraints and taking any opportunities for change, passing the mantle to others who have proven that they can be better.
Some patches of light: a strong, well-diversified economy, relatively well-trained workforce, a nice place to live although deteriorating and largely good people whom politicians are trying their level best to make racist.
This seems like a good place to stop writing and prepare with equanimity and calm for the trouble and turmoil ahead and learn how to live with it until it passes, making little transformations along the way.
Malaysians already know full well what’s happening and what they are up against. - Mkini
P GUNASEGARAM likes this old saying: “This too shall pass.”
The views expressed here are those of the author/contributor and do not necessarily represent the views of MMKtT.
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