Is brouhaha over Sanusi’s remarks overstated?

The Kedah menteri besar’s statement may have put a dent on the BN-PN pact, but overall, analysts are divided on its impact on voter sentiment.

PN election director Sanusi Nor’s remark has come off as offensive to some, but analysts believe it will not have a significant impact on voter sentiment.

PETALING JAYA:

Sanusi Nor may have offended non-Malays with his remarks on Tanah Melayu but, several analysts say, the impact on voter sentiment is likely to be subdued.

Ilham Centre executive director Hisommudin Bakar pointed out that the Chinese already have a longstanding aversion to PAS anyway, while International Islamic University Malaysia’s Syaza Shukri believes the Malay voting pattern is unlikely to be altered in a significant way.

The consensus is that the Kedah menteri besar’s statement has made it harder for Barisan Nasional (BN) to broaden its support beyond its Malay base.

Analysts generally agree that it has exposed the differences in its partnership with Perikatan Nasional (PN).

Sanusi had, on July 23, described “Tanah Melayu” as the only homeland for Malays, unlike other ethnic groups, suggesting that Chinese and Indians had their ancestral homelands.

The remarks prompted BN chairman Ahmad Zahid Hamidi to tell the PN election director to focus on governing Kedah instead of campaigning further in Negeri Sembilan.

Spanner in the works for BN

Hisommudin said Sanusi’s remarks had complicated BN’s campaign, particularly in constituencies that MCA and MIC are trying to recapture from Pakatan Harapan (PH) components DAP and PKR.

“His comments have scared Chinese and Indian voters away from BN because of its electoral cooperation with PN, particularly PAS,” he told FMT.

He said the episode had also unsettled some Umno supporters, with PAS increasingly seen as focusing solely on consolidating the Malay vote.

“BN has traditionally projected itself as a multiracial coalition. That image has been undermined by a political strategy centred on appealing only to Malay voters,” Hisommudin added.

He said Zahid’s frustration was understandable given that the controversy had interrupted the momentum BN had built up since its Johor election victory where it secured support across multiple ethnic groups. The challenge now is to broaden that support.

“I see BN and PN facing challenges in their efforts to win support from non-Malay voters.

“Chinese voters remain allergic to PAS, while many Indian voters are still wary of the party’s hardline statements on issues such as temples,” he said.

Hisommudin said those challenges could become even greater if BN and PN sought to build a broader political consensus ahead of the next general election.

For now, he said, the partnership is held together by a common objective: defeating PH in Malay-majority seats.”

But he warned that the understanding would face a greater test if the alliance expanded into states where PAS is the dominant political force.

“Once they move into PAS-dominated states such as Kedah, Kelantan and Terengganu, that understanding will be tested,” he added.

Tough road ahead

Syaza said BN and PN could govern together, but not without friction.

“They can work together in the same way BN and PH are working together. They can hold it together just enough, but expect disagreements to emerge,” she told FMT.

She said the two coalitions were driven by different political objectives.

“PN will always be speaking to its (Malay-Muslim) base while BN still sees itself as a multiracial coalition.”

Syaza said the average Malay voter who is already a supporter of the BN-PN partnership will remain so because of the whole ummah unity and Malay-first rhetoric.

“The non-Malay voter may not vote for DAP the way they did before, but by not moving to MCA and MIC, it still gives DAP a better chance,” she added.

PH’s mixed fortunes

Hisommudin said the same narrative that had strengthened BN-PN in Malay-majority constituencies had also created opportunities for PH elsewhere.

While PH continues to struggle in Malay-majority seats, Sanusi’s remarks have helped DAP and PKR retain support in many Chinese-majority and mixed constituencies by discouraging non-Malay voters from backing MCA and MIC.

“The result is a more polarised contest in which BN-PN’s gains among Malays are offset by resistance from non-Malay voters,” he said.

Akademi Nusantara’s Azmi Hassan, however, believes the fallout has been overstated.

He said PAS was simply trying to demonstrate that it was taking the lead in the BN-PN partnership.

“What Sanusi said is not surprising. That is how the PAS leadership campaigns, particularly among Malay voters,” he said.

On the whole, the situation is one “coalition paradox”, said Ahmad Zaharuddin Sani Ahmad Sabri of Global Asia Consulting.

“Two sides unite to defeat a common enemy, only to compete with one another when power comes within reach,” he said.

But once power is attained, they will fight over who becomes the dominant partner. “The external enemy unites them, but the real contest will emerge within the partnership,” Zaharuddin added. - FMT