End Of MCA & Gerakan?

By Syed Akbar Ali

I think the UMNO boys are reading the Blogs well. At least on this issue they are coming to their senses. Here is the news :

“Be a team player, Badaruddin tells Chua – in Hokkien

MCA president Datuk Seri Dr Chua Soi Lek has been advised to work as a team player in Barisan Nasional to face the next general election.

Umno permanent chairman Datuk Badaruddin Aminnuddin said “Soi Lek, I am a friend. Don’t disturb the Malays. You already have 70% to share among the Chinese, Indians and others.”

He also called on Barisan to revise the seat allocations among component parties as MCA, MIC, Gerakan and PPP suffered massive defeats in the last general election.

“Although Umno lost many seats, we managed to win 68% of the seats contested, while MCA hardly won 40%. We need to revise the seat allocations to win big in the next general election,” he said, suggesting that if a Malay candidate has a higher winning chance, the seat should be re-allocated to Umno.

He added that even if component parties are not offered seats to contest, their members could be appointed senators and later made ministers and deputy ministers as had happened this time around for those who were defeated in the elections”

The arithmetic is very simple. In the last elections, hardly 20% of Chinese voted for the BN. The bulk of the Chinese vote went to the Opposition. This time around, it is expected that hardly 10% of Chinese will vote for the BN.

No matter how much money Najib throws at the Chinese voters or how many Hindu temple ornaments Najib places on the new archway at Brickfields, the Chinese and possibly the Indian vote is gone.

If UMNO is to survive the next election the party has no choice but to go for the Malay vote. Najib may not see this but the akar umbi is sending its signals loud and clear. Hence Badruddin’s statement at the UMNO Assembly yesterday.

BN has wasted plenty of seats when it fielded Chinese candidates from the MCA or Gerakan in Malay majority areas. The Malay vote was split and then they lost the Chinese vote entirely and the seats were lost.

This time around the BN would do better to field Malay candidates (UMNO) in such Malay majority areas. The Chinese vote can be fully discounted anyway but if the Malay vote swings back, there is a better chance for the BN to win these Malay majority seats.

The other factor to be observed carefully is the feeling among many Malay voters this time around to consider a “Melayu Undi Melayu”option. With the rise of Pakatan, Malay political power is indeed at risk of being thwarted by the non Malays. Hence the ‘Melayu Undi Melayu’ option. Malay voters will vote for any candidate as long as the candidate is Malay. The first choice being a Malay candidate from the BN, failing which they may prefer a Malay candidate from the Opposition.

Don’t blame me ah. This is just what I hear too. In such event (which is becoming more likely) it will be quite suicidal for the BN to field Chinese candidates in a Malay majority area.

The only candidate who may overcome this ‘Melayu Undi Melayu’ sentiment may be P Kamalanathan in Hulu Selangor, who is seen as a good guy by many Malays (although poor Kamalanathan lost the Chinese vote too).

Lets read Badruddin’s closing statement again,

“even if component parties are not offered seats to contest, their members could be appointed senators and later made ministers and deputy ministers”

This is what has happened in the last elections. Gerakan and MCA guys who lost have been appointed Senators and made Ministers. Well even this may not happen at all.

In my view, MCA and Gerakan will be wiped out in the next General Elections, unless the Chinese voters throw them a lifeline. If the Chinese themselves do not vote for the MCA or the Gerakan, why should the Malays vote for them pula?

It may be an option for the MCA and Gerakan to quit the BN now and join the Pakatan. They will certainly be welcome (like Chua Jui Meng) but Kit Siang and Guan Eng will make sure that MCA and Gerakan are seated behind the toilet bowl.

Its going to be interesting.