Using the police to cling to power

As Prime Minister Najib Razak expressed wishes for a smooth and non-violent transition of power in Egypt, Malaysians are wondering if he will do the same when the crunch comes here, or if he will set the police on the people as previous administrations have done so.

“It is not unlikely given that Mahathir has finally admitted what everyone knows - the police are just a tool for the Umno elite and they will take orders, perhaps even against their own countrymen,” PKR vice president Tian Chua told Malaysia Chronicle.

Tian was referring to former premier Mahathir Mohamad, who just days ago, coincidentally pointed out that it was the police and not himself, even though he was also Home Minister at that time, who ordered a violent crackdown on political dissidents in 1987.

"Well, I would have handled it differently, except that the police wanted to do these things because they say it is necessary. I actually met all of the opposition members (beforehand) and assured them that they would not be arrested. And you know what the police did? They arrested them. My credibility is gone,” Mahathir had said

Hanif Omar, the Inspector General of Police at that time, has backed him up.

"You can't blame him (Mahathir). He is right. As a matter of fact, it was entirely the police's decision. It was not his (Mahathir's) decision. Mahathir was actually opposed to it. He was against Ops Lalang," said Hanif, who has often been accused of being Mahathir’s stooge.

Free-for-all in Umno

There have been a lot of comparisons between what has befallen Egypt and Tunisia and while few think that placid Malaysians would really rouse themselves to action and take to the streets, pundits say the passion that lurks within cannot be taken for granted.

Especially if Najib and Mahathir try to cling to power as did Hosni Mubarak and his son Gamal.

Their Umno party has ruled Malaysian since 1957 and Najib himself is a second-generation leader. His father was prime minister from 1970 to 1976 and it is widely believed that there are plans by his ambitious wife Rosmah Mansor to push their son Norashman to take over in the future.

However, Norashman's turn can only come after Mahathir’s youngest boy Mukhriz and a few others get a chance to warm the coveted seat. Others in line or eyeing a turn in the Umno musical-chairs charade are Najib’s cousin Hishammuddin Hussein and Khairy Jamaluddin, the son in law of Najib’s predecessor Abdullah Badawi.

Hisham, the current Home Minister, was given direct charge of the police by Najib, whom he calls ‘Jib’. Their families are very close and it was Hisham’s dad who got to succeed Najib’s as the third prime minister, and their mothers are also sisters.

By comparison, Khairy is an outsider, whom those in the Najib-Hisham-Mukhriz camp regard as being “not in the same class” as the “real heirs”.

Egypt and Tunisia rather than Myanmar and Zimbabwe

However, what is worrying Malaysians and foreign investors is not the Umno internal struggle, which has been brewing since 2008 and turning into a real full-fledged typhoon, but Najib’s increasing threats against any change to the political status quo.

"There is already a credible opposition in Pakatan Rakyat able to take over the federal government and rule Malaysia should indeed Malaysians want change. The problem is how much and how nasty a fight the likes of Mahathir and Najib will put up," Tian said.

"At risk is 50-over years of massive corruption and the people will surely demand that the corrupt leaders and their families be brought to justice and to account for every stolen sen. Do you think the Umno elite will let go so easily? But like the people of Egypt have shown, if Malaysians have courage, they can effect change. We can follow the examples of Tunisia and Egypt rather than Myanmar and Zimbabwe."

Most glaring was Najib's warning aired widely in the mainstream media last week that Malaysians should not try to emulate the Egyptians. Worst was his direct threat that he would not allow a “people’s uprising” in Malaysia.

“Don’t think that what is happening there must also happen in Malaysia. We will not allow it to happen here,” the BN-controlled Star reported him as saying.

Setting the police on the people

Najib was immediately accused of trying to scare and intimidate Malaysians into docility. Some pundits warn the political climate may have changed more than Najib and Mahathir realize. They believe Malaysians were capable of giving the Umno elite the shock of their lives.

“I don't think we are going to see an Egypt-type situation in Malaysia, meaning people taking to the streets and the leader having to step down. In the case of Egypt, the army did not crack down on their own people, they did not shoot or tear gas their own people. But as I said, I think the RMP (Royal Malaysian Police) would not hesitate to crack down. They have done it before, and they will do it again,” former U.S. ambassador to Malaysia John Malott told Malaysia Chronicle.

“But there are some similarities between Egypt and Malaysia with regard to people -- you have a younger generation, plugged in and wired, who know what is going on in the outside world, and who, thanks to the internet and everything connected to it, also know what is going on inside their own country.”

On Saturday, wary of ridicule that his administration had yet to make any stand on Egypt while Opposition Leader Anwar Ibrahim had already been invited by CNN to share his views on the changing landscape in the Islamic world, Najib finally broke the silence.

"I hope the process of power transition in Egypt will run smoothly without any undesired incidents such as tension and violence. I'm confident that the people of Egypt can determine their own destiny and I hope the situation can be handled properly until the time comes for the general election," Najib said.

Even the business sector has been warned

But few are likely to take his words as any serious indication that he would do the same when his time came. In his maiden speech to the United Nations last year, he had condemned Islamophobia and even offered to lead a committee to promote greater understanding of Islam to the non-Muslim world.

Yet in what has become his trademark hypocrisy, Najib allowed his BN coalition to exploit non-Muslim fears of an Islamic state to win a small by-election in Johor, Umno’s birth state. His BN coalition went all out to paint the dark side of Islam, warning non-Muslims to reject the religion and the prospects of an Islamic state which they insisted would automaticaly bring with it "barbaric" practicrs such as hudud law and compulsory conversion.

Just days ago, Najib also warned the business sector not to support the opposition. His comments are likely to boomerang with investors especially since Malaysia’s position has deteriorated in the global corruption indices since he took over from Badawi in 2009.

"It was unnecessary to give that warning when we are a different country with better standards of governance and democracry," past president of Transparency International Ramon Navaratnam told Malaysia Chronicle, referring to Egypt.

"People will not react violently unless they feel very badly treated and until they find the violation on human rights no longer bearable. There is no need for these sort warnings. It raises the question as to why, especially at this time when we should be more constructive and work towards unity and progress rather than instil fear and concern for the future." - Malaysia Chronicle