Both BN and PR shaky, says EIU

By Shannon Teoh

June 02, 2011

KUALA LUMPUR, June 2 — Political stability will be under threat in the next five years due to internal strife within both Barisan Nasional (BN) and Pakatan Rakyat (PR), according to the Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU).

The research arm of the London-based Economist weekly said that BN was likely to remain in power after a general election expected with the year but Umno, the senior partner in BN, could see a leadership shakeup if BN failed to secure a clear mandate in the vote.

Its latest country report on Malaysia also said that the tripartite PR could fray due to Opposition Leader Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim’s “likely” sodomy conviction.

“Political stability will come under moderate threat during the next five years, not because of any major shift in the balance of power, but rather owing to internal strife within both the governing Barisan Nasional (BN) coalition and the main opposition Pakatan Rakyat (PR) alliance,” the EIU said.

Umno’s party polls, to be held after the 13th general election, “could be a source of political instability... if the party fails to secure a clear victory at federal and state level in the next elections,” the EIU said in this month’s report on Malaysia.

“Under such circumstances, the credibility of the prime minister, (Datuk Seri) Najib Razak (picture), would be undermined, putting his position as president of Umno at risk. The most likely contender to become Umno’s next leader is the deputy prime minister, (Tan Sri) Muhyiddin Yassin,” the report said.

Najib had replaced Tun Abdullah Ahma Badawi as PM after the latter led BN to its worst ever election performance, ceding a record 82 parliamentary seats and five state governments.

BN will expect Najib to improve on the 2008 result and regaining the coalition’s customary two-thirds majority in Parliament appears to be the only guarantee that the Pekan MP will stay in power.

The EIU also said that PKR de facto leader Anwar “is likely to be convicted on a charge of sodomy in the coming months.”

The trial, that is in full swing now after delays since allegations first surfaced in 2008, will see the former deputy prime minister enter his defence this month.

“Without him, the ties that unite the disparate parties making up the PR — the reformist, multicultural PKR, the conservative, Islamist PAS and the left-of-centre DAP — are likely to fray, while the process of choosing a new PR spokesman could deepen the divisions within Mr Anwar’s PKR as well as between the opposition coalition’s member parties,” it said.

The report also said that BN’s grip on power depended largely on Sabah and Sarawak as the two states make up more than a third of its 137 MPs.

“Unresolved issues, such as illegal foreign immigration to Sabah, may cause the BN parties based in Borneo, or individual MPs from that region, to defect to the opposition in the national Parliament or use the threat of such action to secure greater influence within the coalition in the run-up to the next general election,” it said.