Intelligence unit predicts GE in 2012

London-based Economic Intelligence Unit believes that the general election will only be called once BN strengthens its position among the ethnic minorities and middle-class Malays.

PETALING JAYA: The Economic Intelligence Unit (EIU) has predicted that the general election will only be called next year to allow the Barisan Nasional (BN) government time to recoup the full support of ethnic minorities.

The latest EIU report for the forecast period of 2011-2015 alluded to the outcome of the recent Sarawak state election where waning Chinese support for the BN indicated that more work is needed if it is to win a two-thirds majority.

The EIU is the research and analysis centre of the Economist magazine.

The report also forecast yet another David-and-Goliath scenario with the cash-strapped opposition being pitted against the BN’s well-oiled machinery.

“The BN is well positioned to win the polls although the width of its victory margin remains unclear,” the report said.

“(Prime Minister) Najib (Tun Razak) has worked hard to present the image of a politician who is committed to economic reform, but this attitude has yet to resonate among the country’s ethnic-minority population.”

The EIU also highlighted Pakatan Rakyat’s shortcomings which included lack of funding and possibly strong competition from the Malaysian Civil Liberties Movement (MCLM) and People’s Welfare Party (Kita).

Both organisations have declared their intention to field candidates at the next general election and the EIU anticipates that the contest could eat into one-half of Pakatan’s 76 parliamentary seats.

But the report has not painted a particularly glowing outlook for either the BN or Pakatan in terms of both parties’ political strength and appeal.

“Although the 2008 election revealed that Umno could no longer count on the strong support of the majority of Malays, Pakatan still does not offer a sufficiently credible, stable alternative,” it noted.

“The BN’s success will depend largely on whether it can keep its power bases intact in Sabah and Sarawak. The outcome of the Sarawak state election was not the resounding victory that it had hoped for.”

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The EIU warned that unresolved issues, like illegal foreign immigration to Sabah, could drive BN parties or individual parliamentary members there to defect or threaten to do so in order to secure greater influence within the coalition.

It also observed that while Umno continued enjoying the loyalty of rural voters, it may have lost the support of many educated, liberal middle-class Malays who are exposed to alternative news via the Internet.

“Umno’s internal leadership elections, which have been postponed until 2012, could be a source of political instability in the forecast period, particularly if the party fails to secure a clear victory at federal and state level in the next elections.”

“Under such circumstances, Najib’s credibility would be undermined, putting his position as Umno president and his role as head of the government at risk. This in turn could halt, or even reverse, his Najib’s programme of economic reforms.”

Opposition Leader Anwar Ibrahim didn’t escape the EIU’s scrutiny either, with the report anticipating the likelihood of his conviction over sodomy charge within the next few months.

“Without him, the ties that unite the disparate parties making up the opposition coaltion – the reformist PKR, the conservative PAS and the left-of-centre DAP – are likely to fray,” it stated.

“And the process of choosing a new Pakatan spokesman could deepen the divisions within PKR as well as between the other component party members.”