Clear signals of BN disintegration: Whither now, MCA, Gerakan and MIC

Since the last GE, everyone has been asking this loaded question, what are the MCA, MIC and Gerakan are waiting for? Can’t they see that their political relevance in the BN has ceased? Their support base continues to be eroded with disillusioned people abandoning them in droves. No one is interested in them, and neither is UMNO.

MCA has been called many names by Nazri in the past, and the latest salvo of a possible BN-DAP tie-up has landed bulls-eye onto MCA’s lap. A paranoid MCA is now rushing to contain the damage. Having failed to regain the confidence of the Chinese, both MCA and Gerakan are likely to crash in the next election. UMNO is sceptical at their ability to retain their seats, let alone win any for the BN.

Gerakan president Koh Tsu Koon too has been at the brunt of verbal abuse lately from the UMNO-owned Utusan newspaper and a group of BN-aligned Independent lawmakers. These guys have been openly taunting Koh to leave Gerakan so that the party can have a chance to win some seats in Penang.

UMNO’s sudden about-turn has set tongues wagging of a possible BN disintegration and BN politicians abandoning a sinking ship. Nazri’s shocker of a statement has started to rattle the sensitive Malaysian political climate.

Although Nazri has denied inviting DAP, few have any doubts he was letting loose a trial balloon on behalf of Prime Minister Najib Razak and UMNO. Do they sense a political upheaval in the near future or are they trying to plug a big leak in the BN’s mighty ship by taking pre-emptive measures? Or could they be rolling the latest red herring to sink the KD Pakatan Rakyat and its captain, Opposition Leader Anwar Ibrahim.

Can MCA, MIC and Gerakan leave BN?

When UMNO started to use Perkasa to stir up racial feelings, it was a clear signal for the MCA, MIC and Gerakan that they had become political liabilities. Why did the leaders of these 3 parties - rudely called 'The Three Blind Mice' - keep sticking around, nobody knows and many believe that they should have left BN long ago. But like leeches, they stuck on and continue to be abused, unable to talk back or give as good as they get at their arrogant boss, UMNO.

But seriously, can they leave BN? Yes.

Would their departure create a power vacuum that would erode UMNO’s strangle-hold on Malaysian politics? No.

Would UMNO allow these parties to abandon the coalition? No. Why not? Because that is UMNO. Like a Dracula, it will hang onto the MCA, Gerakan and MIC until there is not a drop of blood left and then only will it will fling their lifeless corpses away without a thought. This is not at all dramatic, it is easy for UMNO to 'blackmail' the trio to stay as many of the leaders have 'scandals' that the Malaysian Anti-Corruption Commission can suddenly dig up. Get the drift?

Or are the MCA, Gerakan and MIC too afraid to leave and swim in the untested waters of a political quagmire without any political power to boot? Yes, partly. Maybe the reason that MCA, MIC and Gerakan stayed on was to ensure that UMNO did not go overboard in its desperation to consolidate power? Of course not. Even a child won't believe that!

Should MCA and Gerakan leave BN?

It is fact that the Chinese alone can never rule the country, so MCA should work with sincere and honest Malays in the Pakatan Rakyat coalition. MCA and Gerakan can and should take the hint now and quit the coalition before it’s too late.

Mind you, they don't have to join the Pakatan, and given the DAP's territorial attitude, chances are they won't be able to strike a good deal for themselves, especially now when their bargaining power is so low.

But they can remain independent and fight it out in the next GE as independents, and perhaps, they might get some members elected to Parliament. At least, they would have shown their electorates that they are sincere and are trying to rebuild themselves.

The worse would be to stay put in the BN as they are doing now, neither dead nor alive and not expected to stand any fighting chance at all. The tussle over seats within BN is also becoming hotter and MCA, MIC and Gerakan cannot avoid a direct and humiliating confrontation with UMNO on allocations.

Unless, they are able to swallow the bullying by the UMNO, it is best they leave immediately. Either way, they will be crippled when their traditional seats are taken from them. Not only will their candidates curse and desert them but also their grassroots members. This is a tale of misery that they are creating for themselves and they should take note now before there is nothing left to salvage.

Why don’t they leave BN?

That is a question on everyone's mind. Tsu Koon was invited to rejoin the Cabinet as a 'backdoor' Senator and so were some others in the MCA. But their political clout is on UMNO's sufferance and not their own. Added together, the seats held by the three parties, MCA, Gerakan and MIC, do not even add up to one third of UMNO’s parliamentary representation. Perhaps that says it all.

Are the trio staying on to right the wrongs in the BN administration, to continue the pressure on UMNO to deliver the goods to the public, or are they harbouring the thought that they may be able to regain the support of the people? Some say they are simply protecting their own wide and myriad interests. Maybe it is too difficult for these once-powerful leaders to relinquish their hold on their community - voluntarily, as wise men would do.

To be frank, nobody really cares anymore. The MCA and Gerakan leaders have disgusted Malaysians beyond redemption. Just look at the way Chua Soi Lek has rushed out, tongue hanging out and panting like a good dog, to lavish praise on Najib's proposal made a day ago to set up a committee on electoral reforms. Just weeks before when Najib was barking that there was no such need because the system was already fair and clean, Soi Lek had also barked the same 'woof-woof'. Such degradation is sad to see.

BN breakup

But the talk of a BN breakup is too early to confirm, although the signals are clear. All parties are at this stage trying to visualise a way forward with their interest either intact or increased. Latest statistics show a greater number of people who said they were fed up with poverty, corruption and despotism. UMNO’s courting of PAS earlier this year has reinforced the fact that UMNO is not invulnerable.

For a senior UMNO leader to now openly suggest a BN-DAP tie-up is something serious, and not to be dismissed. Party hopping is currently a suicidal political move as past defectors have found. The wiser course is a tie-up. Although Guan Eng said Nazri's invite came out of the blue, insiders say there were BN-DAP talks in the past which went largely ignored.

So, Nazri’s call made over the weekend is the first public feeler to test the watesr. Yet already, it has created a sensation. These are interesting times indeed for followers of the Malaysian political scene. As they say, history is in the making and one should not forget that the most sensational outcome still remains a Pakatan victory and that is starting to get more and more solid by the day.

PAS, DAP and PKR must therefore not lose focus. They must not allow their vanity to be tickled or be side-tracked. Remember, they may think they are smart but UMNO is a survivor of 5 decades. The UMNO elite have tricks up their sleeves that Pakatan can never copy or they would destroy their own credibility. Yes, cheating, cunning, conspiracies, racism, religious politicking and red herrings are all part of the UMNO lingo that Pakatan should steer clear of.

- Malaysia Chronicle