The July 9 rally by the coalition for clean and fair elections (Bersih 2.0) may push Pakatan Rakyat's 2008 tally of 75 federal seats to a whopping 100 seats in the next general election, said political scientist Wong Chin Huat.
However, this will still be 12 seats short of a takeover of the federal government to which the opposition coalition aspires.
Addressing a packed audience at a seminar at Monash University in Sunway today, Wong, who is also a member of Bersih 2.0 steering committee, said the expected swing is due to the BN government's reaction to the rally, which changed sentiments in 55 'marginal seats'.
"Bersih 2.0 may increase the chances for Pakatan in 20 seats won (marginally) by BN and strengthen Pakatan's position in 33 of its marginal seats," he said of findings based on voter demographic and electoral outcomes from the 2008 general election and subsequent parliamentary by-elections.
The same effect is expected in the Independent-held seats of Wangsa Maju, Nibong Tebal and Bayan Baru, which are located in urban areas in Kuala Lumpur and Penang respectively.
However, this will still be 12 seats short of a takeover of the federal government to which the opposition coalition aspires.
Addressing a packed audience at a seminar at Monash University in Sunway today, Wong, who is also a member of Bersih 2.0 steering committee, said the expected swing is due to the BN government's reaction to the rally, which changed sentiments in 55 'marginal seats'.
"Bersih 2.0 may increase the chances for Pakatan in 20 seats won (marginally) by BN and strengthen Pakatan's position in 33 of its marginal seats," he said of findings based on voter demographic and electoral outcomes from the 2008 general election and subsequent parliamentary by-elections.
The same effect is expected in the Independent-held seats of Wangsa Maju, Nibong Tebal and Bayan Baru, which are located in urban areas in Kuala Lumpur and Penang respectively.
Wong also anticipates that Ibrahim Ali will lose his Pasir Mas seat in Kelantan.
PSM, he said, should retain its Sungai Siput seat, which it won with a small margin, after the recent detention of parliamentarian Dr Michael D Jeyakumar.
"Demographically it was a dangerous seat (for PSM) but the detention has benefitted Jeyakumar, in terms of sympathy votes. He will see a return of Indian support to get a more convincing win," he told Malaysiakini after the seminar today.
He defined opposition marginal seats as those won by a margin of within 10 percent, while BN marginal seats were won with a margin within 10 percent, 15 percent, or those with more than 28.57 percent Chinese voters.
[More to follow]
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