Battle for Kelantan: Umno is optimistic

PAS has ruled the state since 1990 and another general election is around the corner. This time around, Umno is confident of dealing a blow, if not capturing the entire state.

KOTA BARU: Kelantan Umno is optimistic of performing well in the impending general election because they claim that the PAS-led state government has lost its way due to stale policies and a lack of innovation to spur economic growth.

This gave rise to the possibility of Umno denying a two-thirds majority in the 45-member state legislative assembly while some of its leaders even forecasted a possible takeover of Kelantan.

Many Kelantan Umno leaders believe that Menteri Besar Nik Abdul Aziz Nik Mat might have overstayed his welcome.

Nik Aziz, 81, besides Sarawak Chief Minister Taib Mahmud, were the only holdover leaders from the 1990 general election.

Most of the PAS spiritual adviser’s nemises such as former premier Dr Mahathir Mohamad have retired, although the latter tends to offer occasional input and advise to the present federal government.

Nepotism and factionalism

State Umno treasurer Hanafi Mamat confirmed this, saying there was some confidence that Umno could score a breakthrough but expressed caution as Barisan Nasional was often the underdog here.

He said this was because PAS had made a foothold on this east coast state since reclaiming it back in 1990.

If political observers study the nature of Kelantan politics, PAS had ruled the state longer than BN since 1957, he added.

But of late, Hanafi claimed, the momentum seemed to be shifting away from PAS, largely due to Nik Aziz overstaying.

It began to unravel after the hiring and eventual termination of his son-in-law Abdul Arifffahmi Abdul Rahman as CEO to a state subsidiary- the Kelantan Mentri Besar Incorporated Sdn Bhd.

The issue dragged on for weeks in 2009 and resulted in the PAS national leadership having to intervene after a blogger began to slowly expose alleged improper dealings of the state subsidiary.

For once, Hanafi said, the people here saw a level of nepotism in the state administration and then, Nik Aziz’s son, Nik Abduh won the PAS Youth deputy chairman’s post earlier this year.

“Spiritual empowerment is part and parcel of Kelantan voters. They want their leaders to be seen as holy and righteous. Once, they see another side, a tendancy for abuse or an unIslamic behaviour, they may stop supporting the incumbents. This is where PAS is worried,” he said.

Hanafi claimed that the myth of piousness surrounding Nik Aziz had began to fracture and the spillover was evident in the state administration.

The state government had alleged factions, one led by state PAS deputy commissioner III Nik Amar Nik Abdullah and deputy mentri besar Ahmad Yakcop as well as state PAS strongman Takiyuddin Hassan. The other, or rather operating in isolation, was PAS vice-president and state economic czar Husam Musa, whom many in Umno believe, is the political god-son of Nik Aziz.

Factionialism impeded the state government from focusing on development and the state was more than ever, reliant on the repartition of income from outside of Kelantan to generate growth.

Basic utilities such as water and electric supplies were also lacking in large swatches of the hinterland here while the main economic indicators were mostly in the low-end jobs of logging, land transactions, agriculture and cross-border trade.

Another encouraging sign for Umno, was the two by-elections held since 2008.

In Manek Urai, PAS only won with a majority of less than 70 votes while in Galas last year, Umno regained the seat it lost in 2008, largely due to the influence of the long-serving Gua Musang MP Tengku Razaleigh Hamzah, Hanafi said.

Currently, Umno or BN held six out of the 45 seats in the legislative assembly.

Hanafi said another indication of support was the gravitation of the large state civil service corps towards Umno.

“I think the public sector is also getting fed up with the lack of movement on state policies. Furthermore, Nik Aziz is frail and at times, has to be hospitalised. This hampers the functions of the state machinery,” he said.

After the 2008 general election, Kelantan PAS was expected to play a major role in the national political scene since Pakatan Rakyat was formed and it controlled Kedah, Penang, Perak and Selangor besides Kelantan.

Insecure about Pakatan

However, many of its leaders lost in the PAS party elections and the momentum was stolen away from them, said Yusmin Abdul Ibrahim, a seasoned local political observer.

He said that only in this year were they trying to regain some credence but many of Kelantan’s leaders were not exactly recognised in Pakatan unlike DAP or PKR.

The consolation was that PAS is entrenched here for generations as it is a state with the most number of religious institutions, a traditional bastion for grooming future party members and leaders.

Yusmin said the Malay ground here had shifted a bit towards Umno because the community felt insecure about how Pakatan would manage the country if it captured Putrajaya.

The fear of the unknown is a big issue here, he summed it up.

Thus, there is a sign that Umno might capture more seats in the coming election, but Yusmin said that to register an outright win here, would be difficult.

He said Umno must have leaders who could stand up to Nik Aziz, who despite ill health, remains focused on leading Kelantan PAS.

He claimed that Nik Aziz’s insistence on adopting the hudud law in Kelantan had also given him renewed support.

However, three younger generations had come since 1990 but the state’s economy was far from pleasing.

Eventually, Yusmin warned, the people might become fed up and Kelantan could witness an “Arab Spring” revolt.