Dr M calls for GE-13 to be as late as possible: Blames Pakatan, scares Najib

Former premier Mahathir Mohamad has pushed back further the timing of the 13th general elections, blaming the Pakatan Rakyat for the delay, while sending a shiver down Prime Minister Najib Razak's spine.

According to Mahathir, the Pakatan led by Opposition Leader Anwar Ibrahim, was likely to decide against dissolving the state assemblies in the 4 states held under their rule if snap polls were held too early.

And this is true.

Pakatan won't follow

For sure, Selangor and Penang will not dance to the beat of Najib's drum if he calls for GE-13 this year. Kelantan and Kedah led by the Islamist PAS are also unlikely to follow, even though Kelantan had in the past followed the date set by the federal government.

As Mahathir pointed out, it made better sense for Pakatan to defer the elections in all its four states so as to focus their attention on the other nine states. He added that the BN did not have to be hasty about holding GE-13 because the current mandate only expired in 2013.

"The election at the state assembly level will depend on the respective state governments whether to dissolve the assembly or otherwise. If all the state legislative assemblies in the four states under the PR are not dissolved, we will see the election being confined only to the states under BN rule," Bernama reported Mahathir as saying on Wednesday.

"As such, they already have four states under their rule. They will concentrate on the other states to expand their domination. However, if the general election is held too close to the expiry of the five-year mandate, they will have no choice but to dissolve the state assemblies.

Writing on the wall for Najib

Convincing and true, but what and who was the wily 85-year-old's real target? Was Mahathir trying to pre-empt the clumsy Najib administration from skidding on yet another banana skin of its own making? Or was he, as widely speculated amongst Umno circles, paving the way for Najib's removal before GE-13 is held?

Umno will be holding its annual assembly in early December and needs to hold its party polls before October next year. This has been the rationale behind the best-guess date of March-April 2012 for GE-13 - so that it leaves six months' space for Umno divisions to get ready for their internal party elections. But do Umno divisions really require so much time?

While dissolviing Parliament may be at Najib's sole discretion, the timing of the Umno polls is up to the party's supreme council. And if they are persuaded that Najib has already run out of steam and become a liability to Umno and BN, they would surely act to replace him rather than risk losing the federal government to Anwar and Pakatan.

The Election Commission has announced that Parliament will automatically dissolve on April 24, 2013 even if Najib does not call for polls.

"We won't dissolve the assemblies in the four states if GE-13 is this year. If next year, it depends on the situation but basically Pakatan does not need to dissolve the state assemblies until 2013. By then Najib won't be PM anymore," PKR vice president Tian Chua told Malaysia Chronicle.

Muhyiddin makes headway

Indeed, the 58-year-old Najib blew his last card when his much hyped-up Budget 2012 failed to strike a chord with the masses, despite an unprecedented slew of cash incentives. This leaves Umno and BN in a very awkward situation - they have no trump card over Pakatan in GE-13.

However, the manner in which Malay sentiments are being stirred again shows that the right-wing in Umno, who look to Mahathir and Deputy Prime Minister Muhyiddin Yassin for their lead, are now in ascendance following the Budget mega-flop.

While Muhyiddin is not popular with the non-Malays, Umno knows it won't be able to persuade or bully the Chinese into voting BN either. Non-Malay components MCA, Gerakan and MIC remain broken in spirit, and are unable to draw any support from their respective communities.

To win GE-13, Umno will now have to depend on the Malays, who are uncomfortable with Najib and wife Rosmah Mansor and their Altantuya-Scorpene submarine scandals and alleged corruption.

A series of bungles

Like the rest of the nation, the Malays have been shocked at the first couple's reckless spending and overly lavish lifestyles. Just days ago, his office confirmed to Parliament their use of a government jet plane to fly to Perth with their family for a private holiday, the appointment of a pricey UK public relations firm for RM83 million just to buff up Najib's tattered image, and a one-million ringgit trip to Kazakhstan ostensibly for an official visit but also scheduled to coincide with their daughter's engagement to a Kazakh scion.

It did not help that the Customs Department has also confirmed the existence of a RM24 million diamond ring allegedly ordered for Rosmah's use. The Datuk T sex video aimed to tarnish Anwar plus the awful sodomy charges pressed against the opposition chief have also chipped away at the public's faith in the first couple.

Nonetheless, those in the Najib camp scoff at the speculation against their boss, saying that a sitting PM was virtually impossible to oust. Yet that was exactly what Najib did in the aftermath of the 2008 general election, when he was amongst the prime movers behind Abdullah Badawi's ouster.

Given that Najib is a seasoned player in the political arena, having become a Member of Parliament in his twenties, it is unlikely that he has not realized the odds that he is facing.

His ambitious wife, who plays a larger than expected role in his administration, remains the only wild card. But chances are high Najib will buckle down to the demands of the Umno supreme council and throw in the towel next year.

Malaysia Chronicle