Indian voters in the role of kingmakers

In the 2008 general election Indians voted for Pakatan but for the coming election they are undecided and that is why their votes are so important for the opposition and BN

COMMENT

Hindraf Makkal Sakthi, earlier this week, released a detailed analysis of how the voting pattern, Indians in particular, went during the 2008 general election with some comparisons from 2004. The figures are both from independent analysts as well as from Hindraf, the ad hoc apolitical human rights movement run from London.

Extrapolating from the figures by logical deduction, Hindraf has since discovered that the Indian community is generally split down the middle, confirming earlier observations. Both national coalitions, Barisan Nasional (BN) and Pakatan Rakyat, today command equal support from among Indians.

This emerging scenario can only be seen as a severe setback for Pakatan which could commanded 85 per cent Indian support during the 2008 general election. This made a telling difference in 63 of the 67 Parliamentary seats in Peninsular Malaysia where Indians make up a significant number of the voters while Malay votes were generally for BN.

If elections were to be held tomorrow, Hindraf projects that some 30 per cent of the registered Indian voters would again, as in previous elections, not turn out at all. Hence, it appears that one problem here is strategizing in a way which can help increase the Indian voter turnout come polling day to head in a particular political direction. Traditionally, such voters can be seen as pro-opposition.

Of the remaining 70 per cent, 49 per cent comprise the underclass championed by Hindraf for being denied even cendol permits among others, 14 per cent the middle class – about three-quarters still for Pakatan as in 2008 — and seven per cent the top crust which have always been with the BN.

The underclass is equally divided between Pakatan and BN unlike in 2008 when 85 per cent of them voted with the makkal sakthi – people power – wave to put the opposition in power in five states and the Federal Territory of Kuala Lumpur.

Indian underclass disillusionment with Pakatan, the reason for the trek away from the opposition alliance, is hardly surprising. The opposition state governments in Selangor, Penang, Kedah and Kelantan have been seen as largely too pre-occupied with reaching an enduring power-sharing accommodation between the Malays and Chinese, rather than worrying about Indian woes.

The DAP has been largely dismissive of Indian efforts to strike out politically on its own and sees the community as part of its own, ostensibly multiracial, turf.

The Indians don’t see why they must add to the strength of the Chinese numbers in the state assemblies and Parliament at their expense. Indian DAP leaders beg to differ. However, they have been largely silenced and shackled by their own incompetence and impotence in the wake of the infamous Kampung Buah Pala incident in Penang where the DAP-led state government seized Indian trust land and chased out the inhabitants without batting an eyelid.

Losing the shackles

If nothing is done to intervene on the Indian voting pattern, including Hindraf staying out of the fray, it’s more than likely that Pakatan will lose Selangor and Kedah at the next, the 13^th general election while only hanging on to Penang and Kelantan and missing the chance to re-take Perak which it won in 2008.

However, should Hindraf come out on the side of Pakatan and woo the Indian underclass as in 2008, it’s a certainty that the opposition alliance will not only maintain its current haul of four states, but re-take Perak and add Negri Sembilan as well. Again, the figures in the analysis of the voting trends in 2008 speak for themselves.

Getting Hindraf on board the Pakatan bandwagon would mean the opposition making a deal with its political wing, the Human Rights Party Malaysia (HRPM), to accept its latest minimum demand of five to seven Parliamentary seats in Peninsular Malaysia and 14 to 15 state seats.

The party, as yet unregistered, had initially targeted 15 Parliamentary seats and 38 state seats. It’s likely that HRPM candidates would have to stand under the symbols of the various Pakatan component parties.

Between Hindraf, Pakatan and BN, the Indian community would have to consider whether or not they would be better off striking out on their own to bring change and reform to the politics of Malaysia.

There’s considerable interest, including from Hindraf, in a radical new school of thought making its way through cyberspace i.e. that the Indian community would be better off in the long run if they deliberately embarked on a strategy of uniting to throw out the ruling party, whether at the state or Federal level.

In short, the idea is not to vote for but against someone.

Elections not too soon

How this will translate into reality on the ground remains to be seen. Nothing ventured, nothing gained. The Indians have nothing to lose but their shackles .

An intelligent guess-estimate, given the radical new school of thought, is that Pakatan would only be able to maintain Penang and Kelantan but, given Indian support, will re-take Perak and add Negri Sembilan to the haul. Again, these numbers would mean Pakatan would hang on to four state governments, two old, regain one and add a new one.

If proponents of the new school of thought have their way with or without Hindraf’s support, the Federal Government is likely to fall to Pakatan at the 13th general election but only if the opposition alliance can pull off the impossible and get the Indian community on board.

The current thinking among political pundits is that the BN, is in no great hurry to call for an early general election although Prime Minister Najib Tun Razak has already begun his campaigning.

The political campaigning will continue, but the general election will only be held when the BN has completed its five-year term in 2013.

Between now and then, the opposition alliance will be reduced to watching the ruling party campaign desperately to cling on to power by hook-or-crook.

If the opposition alliance tries to emulate the BN and launch a similar political campaign of their own in preparation for the 13th GE, they are likely to be dragged to court by the police for not having the required permits.