For the past six months or so, most of us had been bracing ourselves for the announcement of the 13th General Elections which many expected on 11th November (11.11.11). In fact, some speculated that the Parliament would be dissolved on 11th November (after the PM's return from the haj) and then for the GE to be held some time in December, speculated to be 10th Dec.
That, however, did not happen, and it appears that the GE may be held around March or April next year instead.
I am of the opinion that this could be a serious miscalculation.
First of all, it is common knowledge that Najib is going to face a lot of resistance from within Umno. Clearly, if he holds the GE now he can 'clean up' Umno and get rid of his 'threats'. With the delay in holding the next GE, he is now giving them more time to consolidate and to strengthen their moves against him.
Secondly, most PM's in the past including Dr Mahathir and Pak Lah held the GE within six months of taking office to legitimise their position. Contrastingly, Najib has not been elected into office.He is merely a 'caretaker' PM in a sense. On that count, is he a legitimate PM?
Most importantlty, 2012 is going to see more turmoil than even WWII. The year 2012 is going to be the beginning of the end of the world as we know it, economically and socially speaking. The two greatest Pre-Christian empires of 2,000 years ago, Italy and Greece, have already fallen. What awaits us?
Moving northwards, we can see how the British Empire where the sun never sets has seen the sun setting long ago.
Currently, the US Dollar is not even worth the paper it is printed on. It is only of value as long as you need to buy oil because the USD is the currency accepted for deals. If not, no one would want the US Dollar.
Thus, it can be seen that the US is as good as dead. The only difference is that it is not pronounced dead, not until the USD becomes demonitised, so to speak.
One reason Libya was attacked and occupied is because Gaddafi wanted to 'unpeg' the sale of oil from the USD. In reality, if he had succeeded, the US would be history. By a twist of fate, ow Gaddafi is history and the USD is still in demand.
With all that is happening, it appears that Europe is possibly facing WW3. Unlike the previous world wars, WW3 is not a military war but an economic war. The question at the tip of our tongues is whether Europe will survive this war. Maybe yes and maybe no. And the chance of no is bigger than the chance of yes.
Asia is but a small cog in the entire machinery. If Europe sneezes, countries like Malaysia will catch a cold.
And we are already showing some symptoms.
Can Malaysia survive if Europe crashes?
Some surmise that Pakatan is not ready for an election. It is apparent to many that Pakatan still has many unresolved issues which may not be resolved even if given another year.
Realistically, we all know that BN is not without issues either. And that is why BN is worried and its leaders do not want to call for a GE now.
If Najib had called for the GE to be held next month, Pakatan would have been caught with their pants down!!! With this delay, BN has given Pakatan a new breath of life and a reprieve to resolve all their issues.
But that is looking at things internally. You can solve your internal problems. More worrying is the alarming fact that there are external factors in this situation which are beyond your control. And this is what Najib may be faced with at the moment.
THIS ARTICLE ADB’s Nag on the Asia Hit from the Euro Crisis (The Wall Street Journal) demonstrates what Najib may have to face in 2012, when he decides to hold the GE then.
The Economic Times HERE carried an article by Greenback Forex Services which believe currencies may move in all directions till European debt crisis looms.
In the New Zealand Herald today, Lagarde warns that no country immune to euro crisis!
The Business Recorder HERE argues that Europe's debt crisis may shake corporate America!
The Global Nation Inquirer reported: “We are all directly affected by the crisis in Europe,” US Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner said after hosting a meeting of finance ministers of the 21-member Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (Apec) forum.
Why does Italy's economy matter so much to the U.S?
"The actual balance sheets of most U.S. banks are scarier than anything Stephen King ever dreamed up. So when those calls come in ... well, you remember Lehman Brothers? Lehman is to this as a firecracker is to a stick of dynamite." READ MORE HERE.
The next question is how will the euro crisis sink your Asia fund? According to The Telegraph:
Last week, Bloomberg reported: "U.S. banks increased sales of insurance against credit losses to holders of Greek, Portuguese, Irish, Spanish and Italian debt in the first half of 2011, boosting the risk of payouts in the event of defaults."
Obviously, the world is now a globalised and borderless world. It is virtually impossible for any country to work or exist in isolation. The painful truth is that every country's fortunes is tied to one another. When one goes down, it will ultimately drag the others down as well.
Why do you think the European countries are trying to prevent Greece and Italy from going down? Simply because if they go down, they will suck the others down. Most alarmingly, Europe will suck the US down and in turn the Asian countries down as well.
Malaysia is not important in the scheme of things. Malaysia can be sacrificed for the greater need to Europe and the West. And it may just come to that.
Can you remember how Asia and even Australia was sacrificed during WWII? Europe came first in decisions. Asia was left to fend for itself. And then Australia discovered that Churchill had abandoned them to Japan because they needed to focus on Europe. The rest is history that I hope will not be repeated!
The good news is, Malaysia could most probably be hit bad and get sucked in by the Euro crisis that would result in BN losing the GE. The bad news is, even if Pakatan takes over they would be taking over a bankrupt nation like what happened in Britain recently/
The Malay proverb is: menang sorak, kampung tergadai. When translated, it means you win the cheering but end up in serious debt.
We saw this is the mid-1980s. Malaysia had to cancel all its projects because the world faced a recession (remember 'Black Monday'?) and Malaysia had no reserves. Singapore, on the other hand, accelerated and brought forward all its (future) projects and spent its way out of the recession. Of course, you can do this if you have huge cash reserves like Singapore. If not, you will have to cancel all your projects like Malaysia. This was what happened about 25 years ago. And will this happen again?
Personally, I would not want to be in the shoes of the government that takes over from BN come the next GE. We would probably see what is happening in the UK today in our own backyard.Because of that, the Conservative-LibDem coalition is probably going to be a one-term government and Labour will be back in power the next GE and will probably stay on for at least 10 or 15 years to come. Get my drift?
This is my thesis only and there is no right or wrong but merely my forecast of what MAY happen but with a high level of probability.
What do you think? I would love to hear your views!
That, however, did not happen, and it appears that the GE may be held around March or April next year instead.
I am of the opinion that this could be a serious miscalculation.
First of all, it is common knowledge that Najib is going to face a lot of resistance from within Umno. Clearly, if he holds the GE now he can 'clean up' Umno and get rid of his 'threats'. With the delay in holding the next GE, he is now giving them more time to consolidate and to strengthen their moves against him.
Secondly, most PM's in the past including Dr Mahathir and Pak Lah held the GE within six months of taking office to legitimise their position. Contrastingly, Najib has not been elected into office.He is merely a 'caretaker' PM in a sense. On that count, is he a legitimate PM?
Most importantlty, 2012 is going to see more turmoil than even WWII. The year 2012 is going to be the beginning of the end of the world as we know it, economically and socially speaking. The two greatest Pre-Christian empires of 2,000 years ago, Italy and Greece, have already fallen. What awaits us?
Moving northwards, we can see how the British Empire where the sun never sets has seen the sun setting long ago.
Currently, the US Dollar is not even worth the paper it is printed on. It is only of value as long as you need to buy oil because the USD is the currency accepted for deals. If not, no one would want the US Dollar.
Thus, it can be seen that the US is as good as dead. The only difference is that it is not pronounced dead, not until the USD becomes demonitised, so to speak.
One reason Libya was attacked and occupied is because Gaddafi wanted to 'unpeg' the sale of oil from the USD. In reality, if he had succeeded, the US would be history. By a twist of fate, ow Gaddafi is history and the USD is still in demand.
With all that is happening, it appears that Europe is possibly facing WW3. Unlike the previous world wars, WW3 is not a military war but an economic war. The question at the tip of our tongues is whether Europe will survive this war. Maybe yes and maybe no. And the chance of no is bigger than the chance of yes.
Asia is but a small cog in the entire machinery. If Europe sneezes, countries like Malaysia will catch a cold.
And we are already showing some symptoms.
Can Malaysia survive if Europe crashes?
Some surmise that Pakatan is not ready for an election. It is apparent to many that Pakatan still has many unresolved issues which may not be resolved even if given another year.
Realistically, we all know that BN is not without issues either. And that is why BN is worried and its leaders do not want to call for a GE now.
If Najib had called for the GE to be held next month, Pakatan would have been caught with their pants down!!! With this delay, BN has given Pakatan a new breath of life and a reprieve to resolve all their issues.
But that is looking at things internally. You can solve your internal problems. More worrying is the alarming fact that there are external factors in this situation which are beyond your control. And this is what Najib may be faced with at the moment.
THIS ARTICLE ADB’s Nag on the Asia Hit from the Euro Crisis (The Wall Street Journal) demonstrates what Najib may have to face in 2012, when he decides to hold the GE then.
The Economic Times HERE carried an article by Greenback Forex Services which believe currencies may move in all directions till European debt crisis looms.
In the New Zealand Herald today, Lagarde warns that no country immune to euro crisis!
The Business Recorder HERE argues that Europe's debt crisis may shake corporate America!
The Global Nation Inquirer reported: “We are all directly affected by the crisis in Europe,” US Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner said after hosting a meeting of finance ministers of the 21-member Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (Apec) forum.
Why does Italy's economy matter so much to the U.S?
"The actual balance sheets of most U.S. banks are scarier than anything Stephen King ever dreamed up. So when those calls come in ... well, you remember Lehman Brothers? Lehman is to this as a firecracker is to a stick of dynamite." READ MORE HERE.
The next question is how will the euro crisis sink your Asia fund? According to The Telegraph:
Is the euro typhoon heading for Asia? Figures from the Investment Management Association (IMA) show that private investors have put their faith in the China, India and their environs for some time now, but warnings from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) suggest that the Eastern promise might be waning thanks to the euro turmoil.This link opines that Asia May Get Affected As Euro Zone Debt Crisis Worsens!
Over the past five years, according to IMABurdett, the co-head of Thames River's Multi-Capital fund.
However, he acknowledged that these markets were not likely to emerge unscathed from the current problems in the Euro zone. Having already underperformed over the past year, he said Asian markets would "move with global growth perceptions whether we like it or not".
Last week, Bloomberg reported: "U.S. banks increased sales of insurance against credit losses to holders of Greek, Portuguese, Irish, Spanish and Italian debt in the first half of 2011, boosting the risk of payouts in the event of defaults."
Obviously, the world is now a globalised and borderless world. It is virtually impossible for any country to work or exist in isolation. The painful truth is that every country's fortunes is tied to one another. When one goes down, it will ultimately drag the others down as well.
Why do you think the European countries are trying to prevent Greece and Italy from going down? Simply because if they go down, they will suck the others down. Most alarmingly, Europe will suck the US down and in turn the Asian countries down as well.
Malaysia is not important in the scheme of things. Malaysia can be sacrificed for the greater need to Europe and the West. And it may just come to that.
Can you remember how Asia and even Australia was sacrificed during WWII? Europe came first in decisions. Asia was left to fend for itself. And then Australia discovered that Churchill had abandoned them to Japan because they needed to focus on Europe. The rest is history that I hope will not be repeated!
The good news is, Malaysia could most probably be hit bad and get sucked in by the Euro crisis that would result in BN losing the GE. The bad news is, even if Pakatan takes over they would be taking over a bankrupt nation like what happened in Britain recently/
The Malay proverb is: menang sorak, kampung tergadai. When translated, it means you win the cheering but end up in serious debt.
We saw this is the mid-1980s. Malaysia had to cancel all its projects because the world faced a recession (remember 'Black Monday'?) and Malaysia had no reserves. Singapore, on the other hand, accelerated and brought forward all its (future) projects and spent its way out of the recession. Of course, you can do this if you have huge cash reserves like Singapore. If not, you will have to cancel all your projects like Malaysia. This was what happened about 25 years ago. And will this happen again?
Personally, I would not want to be in the shoes of the government that takes over from BN come the next GE. We would probably see what is happening in the UK today in our own backyard.Because of that, the Conservative-LibDem coalition is probably going to be a one-term government and Labour will be back in power the next GE and will probably stay on for at least 10 or 15 years to come. Get my drift?
This is my thesis only and there is no right or wrong but merely my forecast of what MAY happen but with a high level of probability.
What do you think? I would love to hear your views!
- masterwordsmith
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