GE13: Pakatan Stands to Win Seven Extra Parliamentary Seats

by Django Setemolya

Many of us – the public, politicians and pundits alike – are speculating that the General Election will be held within the first quarter of 2012. Some say in March, others say April. Meanwhile, Tun Dr Mahathir Mohamad had advised Prime Minister Datuk Seri Najib Razak to hold it off as long as possible (deadline is 2013), a signal that BN still has a lot to do in their effort to revive the party’s dwindling popularity. The general perception is Pakatan would put a smackdown on BN if iNajib is to call for election any time soon. Even Mahathir has inferred this strong possibility. But whatever it is, Najib is the one who’s calling the shots. However, there’s weight to Mahathir’s prediction. We’re talking about a former premier and Umno president who never makes a habit of underestimating his political rivals, and he was bang on when he said, in 1990, that Umno would not be able to reclaim Kelantan in 20 years. Kita President Datuk Zaid Ibrahim also recognizes that there’s merit to Mahathir’s premonition. “Datuk Seri Najib Tun Razak will get his majority in Parliament if he dissolves it at the end of the present term and if he takes the time to consolidate his position. He will win only if he cares to question those of his advisers who are gung-ho about a BN victory. The people around him will probably continue to give him a false sense of confidence but if he is more realistic and takes his time, victory will be his – even if it is a close call,” said Zaid in his blog. These conclusions highlighted by Mahathir and Zaid are deductions. To get a clearer picture, the numbers in the last elections would help in putting into perspective where Barisan Nasional and Pakatan Rakyat stand in the 13th General Election. The way things turned out, there are seven parliamentary seats won by BN and an Independent (who is formerly from PKR) that can be identified as shaky, seeing as these wins were by less than 500 vote majority. These figures already show that the Opposition has a very good chance in winning the GE13. Slim Majority Wins by BN/Independent . However, Pakatan shouldn’t be overly elated by the figures given above as they had their own share of flimsy wins during GE12 in parliamentary seats namely in Kedah, Penang, Perak, Selangor and Johor. Slim Majority Wins by Pakatan . State-Wise Looking at Pakatan and BN’s overall performances in GE12 would also provide a bigger picture on what we can expect in the chances in the next election. As it stands, Pakatan has control over four out of 14 states (minus Perak) – Kedah, Penang, Kelantan and Selangor. And so far PAS can be proud of themselves having secured two (minus Perak) of the four Pakatan-ruled states. Northern States BN produced 100 percent in its polls in Perlis but then again there are only three seats there. However, to make inroads into Perlis, PAS-controlled Kedah may decide to take that extra effort to exert its influence on its much smaller northern neighbor. BN clearly produced disappointing results in Kedah when it secured only 4 out of 15 seats while Pakatan won 11 (PAS: 6 and PKR: 5). Meanwhile, Pakatan also pulled off an impressive result in Penang with DAP winning 7 seats, PKR 4 and BN only managed 2. Seeing as Penang gives a strategic advantage to the Opposition and being an only state secured by DAP they will do everything they can to hold on to it. The way things are going, in terms of performance productivity and popularity of its chief Minister Lim Guan Eng, there’s no way BN, or Gerakan, for that matter, is going to reclaim Penang. Well, not for a long, long time anyway. Perak is going to be quite tricky this time around as BN had cheated its way to power there with the help of the Sultan. In terms of constituency both sides have one less-than-convincing wins each, one being Lumut (MCA: 298 majority) and the other Teluk Intan (DAP: 150 majority). Looking at the numbers, the Chinese votes will be the determining factor on which party Perak will end up with. It will surely be a hard-fought battle here seeing as both sides are almost equally matched. East Coast Kelantan is a given for PAS as long as its Mentri Besar and PAS spiritual leader, Tok Guru Nik Aziz Nik Mat is still around anyway. Meanwhile, it looks like Terengganu has become a BN stronghold since the last two General Elections after its then Mentri Besar Datuk Seri Hadi Awang (PAS President) lost his grip on the east coast state in 2004. It certainly appears so after PAS only won 1 out of 8 seats here. So maybe it would be best for PAS focus their resources more on Perak for now since they have a better chance there. Central Peninsula Pahang has always been BN stronghold after Johor. Pakatan only managed to claim 2 (out of 14) and (1 out of 26) seats in these two states, respectively. Meanwhile, we can expect to see BN go all out to reclaim Selangor as it will be an uphill battle for them; and it will be worth the fight since Selangor is the most developed state in the country. As for Negeri Sembilan, Pakatan may find it worthwhile to set up their heavy artillery here since their losing margin is only by 2 seats. Labuan would be a federal state the opposition may find worth fighting hard for. This is because Pakatan has already got a hold of Kuala Lumpur and by winning over Labuan, being one of the three Federal Territories (the third being Putrajaya) would allow them to take control of Federal Territory. Putrajaya, they can pretty much forget about it since a lot of the voters here are government servants. South Side BN, or rather, Umno has maintained a good grip on Melaka and Johor since time immemorial. Simply put, track records show that Umno has got a better hold of Johor compared to PAS has on its stronghold Kelantan. It’s still a wonder how DAP’s Er Teck Hwa managed a victory in Bakri even if it was by just a 51 vote margin. It must be said though that Er is amicably the most humble and mild-mannered politician and MP at the moment. As they say, work hard and be kind and good things will happen to you. East Malaysia The ballgame is quite different in these necks of the woods. The long-serving Chief Minister of Sarawak, Tan Sri Taib Mahmud has shown that he still got what it takes to ensure BN remains in power in the state by winning 55 out of 71 seats during the state election in April. It was less than the previous win (63 out of 71) in the last state election in 2006 but still rather impressive considering the bad press he’s been getting throughout the election period where he was portrayed as an evil, greedy man who resorts to black magic to attain and safeguard his power and wealth. BN have even more of an edge over its rival in Sabah after winning all but one seat here. However, rumor has it that the opposition has some tricks up their sleeves in West Malaysia. With that said, do realize that there are other opposition parties that are not part of Pakatan. Popularity and Performance Money politics aside, there’s really no secret to success in elections at constituency level. They can strategize all they want but at the end of the day it all boils down to the popularity of the party and the performance of the MPs in managing their constituencies come election time. After all, voters either vote for the party or the candidate. I have this general impression that Umno MPs have a better knack at carrying out their duties, especially in taking care of the people in their constituencies. Perhaps it’s because they are more experienced. I’ve heard of a former Umno MP who used leave his home open to people from his constituencies to allow them to come (even late at night) and grouse about their problems or to seek help. He even gave cash to help those visitors who are in need even when he himself didn’t have that much to spare. This is not what you call money politics; it’s selflessness. MPs get paid RM6,000 a month (excluding allowance) to take care of the welfare of the people in their constituencies so the few goodhearted ones tend to feel obliged to give something back to the people who had elected them. The same can’t be said about the newbie PKR MPs. Reliable sources have said that there are quite a number of people, namely in constituencies in Penang, Selangor and Kuala Lumpur, who are not happy with the MPs they had elected. These MPs would have to rectify the situation or else the vote count will not be in their favor come election time. Either that or their party bosses might decide to replace them with another candidate to contest for their seats as to minimize their risks. *The views expressed here are the personal opinion of the writer.