Tengku Razaleigh As Interim Prime Minister

Yesterday was a very long day. Even spent time traipsing around a durian plantation. It was full of new information, new experiences and finally last nite I even took a test. (I think I passed).

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Yesterday evening I attended a seminar where the closing session discussed Malaysia's politics in 2012. Upon request by the organiser (a dear friend) I cannot say which seminar. Some of you folks were there as well - I am sure. The topic was the 13th General Elections.

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When will the 13th General Elections be held? One speaker pointed out that the GE is not due until 28 April 2013. And Constitutionally it can even be postponed by another two months. Lim Guan Eng has said that if the GE is called before June 2012, then the Pakatan held States will not dissolve their State assemblies. Karpal Singh is not in agreement.

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Some other folks I met say that the 13th GE will be held about six months after that Parliamentary subcommittee to study the Electoral reforms has been appointed. The subcommittee has just been appointed in November. Six months hence is therefore April 2012 - still a year before the full term ends.

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My view is it depends on whether the Crown Prince of Sungei Buloh is sent back to sit on his throne in Sungei Buloh. If he is sentenced to sing-sing, there will be some outcry and some sympathy. It will take about six months before the sympathy dies down. His backaches will also start again within about six months of being put in sing-sing. I can already imagine all those pictures of him - wearing braces and sitting in a wheel chair - being smuggled out of sing-sing. (All this is based on whether he is found guilty or not ok).

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Anyway one of the speakers said (to my surprise) that he had spoken to the Crown Prince's lawyers who do not feel confident that their client will be found innocent. In other words they also feel he will be found guilty of the charges.

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So six months from a guilty verdict will be about just right to have the Elections. My own view is that lets have the elections in 2013. We need more time to put things right. The time is not right yet.

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And the PM needs to really revamp the Cabinet. No revamp - can get mauled in the General Elections. Two other things were mentioned yesterday. One speaker said that possibly 70% of voters have already made up their minds who they want to vote. It will be very difficult to change their minds. The battle is actually (or always has been) for that remaining 30% fence sitters. I think there is some truth in this. At the last General Elections, many people decided to vote for the Opposition - no matter what you said or did, they were going to vote Opposition.

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Post 2008, I once embarrased (just pulling their leg) a group of hard core UMNO supporters at a dinner by asking 'Whoever DID NOT vote for the Opposition please raise your hands'. No one raised their hands. I think had voted for the Opposition in 2008. Everyone just wanted to be rid of Slumberjack and the corrupt SIL.

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Anyway, the clever lady who spoke yesterday said something else which I feel is extremely important. And for this round, the Prime Minister better take note of this point extremely very well.

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She said that the last 10 - 14 days before the General Elections are very crucial to help people make up their minds. Since most General Elections only have about two weeks campaigning period, this means a sizeable number of people (possibly that 30% of undecided voters) will actually make up their minds within 10 - 14 days before Polling Day.

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By that time, all the candidates representing all the parties will be known to everyone. This time around if folks like the "Lembu Condo" people appear on the ballot, there will be a price to pay. If the Mat Rempit fellow appears on the ballot, or the SIL, there will be a price to pay. Times have changed.

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There was a consensus (of sorts - two speakers said this quite clearly, while the other two alluded to it) that the BN will win the Federal Government. I tend to agree. There is a difference of views about the margin of victory though. Again the consensus was that the margin may be thin, even smaller than the present number of seats held by the BN.

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As far as the Chinese votes are concerned, one very well informed speaker (a Chinese) pointed out that even at the height of Tun Dr Mahathir's popularity, only 30% of Chinese voted for the BN. In 2008, this percentage went down to just over 20%. In By Elections, this figure has dropped below 20%. What does this mean? The Chinese vote has actually been discounted.

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Tun Dr Mahathir is so right - what really matters is the Malay vote. It is the Malay vote that makes or breaks the elections for anyone. The same speaker also pointed out something else that I have said so many times before - by 2018 the bumiputras will make up 70% of the country's population. It is the Malay vote that will carry the day.

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The young man who spoke about the Crown Prince (my choice of words ok) also said that PM Najib Tun Razak has missed some opportunities to win back much popular support. The speaker said that the PPSMI issue was a missed opportunity for the PM (the PM was in Mecca and chose to remain silent over it - and let the DPM face all the fireworks).

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He said the PM also missed a big opportunity over the lembu issue. His view was that the PM should have just fired the Minister concerned. But the PM did not do this and hence missed a big opportunity to make real reforms.

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The same speaker also said that Tengku Razaleigh Hamzah may consider leading the Pakatan Rakyat in the next GE if the Ketua Umum is sent to jail. So, if the Ketua Umum is sent off to jail, if he (Ku Li) accepts the nomination to lead the Pakatan, if the Pakatan then wins the 13th GE, then Ku Li will serve as Interim PM, until the Ketua Umum is released from prison again.

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Friends, a convicted criminal CANNOT hold political office. A convicted criminal cannot run for Parliamentary election at least FIVE YEARS after being released from prison. So even if the Ketua Umum is sent to jail and then he finishes his sentence (what say in 2022?) then he must wait another five years before he can run for elections.

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Can you see why Guan Eng is so eager to say totally stupid things like 'he will be PM even if he is in jail'. They know exactly what they are saying.

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Unless they arrange a Royal Pardon for the guy of course. All these are 'ifs' ok. He may be found innocent as well. We will never know.

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Tengku Razaleigh is a nice man. The most perfect and polite gentleman. But I really think the Tengku already had his shot at Prime Time. There was a window open in 2008. At a meeting at his house, we did urge him to step forward then. But that was during the corrupt regime of the non performing Slumberjack and his SIL.

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Najib Tun Razak is a different cup of tea. Some say that Tengku Razaleigh is a relic from the past, way past his prime and way past his time. The doctored picture here gives the idea

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But I dont believe even for one second that Ku Li wants to become an "Interim PM", just a seat warmer, waiting for the return of the Ketua Umum. I dont think anyone has that much love for the Ketua Umum. In the past, the guy has actually been a huge obstacle for folks like Musa Hitam, Ku Li, Ghaffar Baba and even Slumberjack. Only when he was sent off to jail, all these folks had a second chance at Prime Time. If the Ketua Umum is locked up, it will be an obstacle out of the way for Ku Li.

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If Ku Li does become PM, it will be for keeps. No such thing as "interim" Prime Minister. You can forget about any pardons too (if he is sent off to sing-sing).

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One speaker also said that Najib's popularity was increasing but the popularity of UMNO and the BN was decreasing. This is an anomaly but it is a true observation. This simply means that Najib must fire the dinosaurs from public life. Only then will the popularity of the BN catch up with his own popularity.

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During question time I asked a 'naughty' question : whether the PM's wife (Rosmah) was a drag on the PM's popularity? Everyone laughed but no one answered the question.

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There was a reason I asked this question. It is true that Najib's popularity is increasing. More than one survey - including one done by the PKR themselves - shows that the PM's popularity is increasing. And the wife is of course closely identified with the PM. Logically then, it should mean that Datin Rosmah's 'unpopularity' is becoming another urban legend. I know you sceptics are gritting your teeth already but look at it objectively. How do you explain a PKR survey that shows that the PM is more popular than the Ketua Umum? Itu lu punya survey lah.

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It is true the PM's wife still appears in the newspapers but did you notice that very often she is photographed with children - budak pintar, top scorers, underprivileged kids and so on. This is becoming a "trademark" of sorts. Oh well.....

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