Civil war in Umno may exceed the battle for Malaysia, says ex-US envoy Malott

INTERVIEW PART THREE Prime Minister Najib Razak and his colleagues may insist the political status quo in the country has not changed an iota, but the reality is obvious even to political analysts wtaching the country from afar.

Barisan Nasional, the ruling coalition of 14 parties, is no longer relevant to ordinary Malaysians who see it as a bungling, inept and dishonest government. Creating a double whammy, ‘civil war’ has erupted in Umno – Najib’s Malay nationalist party that has led the BN for the past 54 years.

“I think it is clear that BN as a whole is no longer a strong political force. It is all about Umno now. MCA and MIC have been emasculated and lost credibility with the Chinese and Indian communities. So the focus will turn to Umno,” former US ambassador to Malaysia John Malott told Malaysia Chronicle.

Like Malott, who is now based in Washington and whose Malaysia views are sought by powerful groups and think-tanks, other analysts also see the passing of an era of ‘government-knows-best’ in the Southeast Asian nation.

Open contempt

Once regarded as a bedrock of stability, BN is now in tatters. Umno leaders openly show their contempt for other partners especially the Chinese-based MCA and Gerakan and the Indian-based MIC, whom they blame for dragging down the coalition which lost 5 of the country’s 13 states to the Pakatan Rakyat led by Opposition Leader Anwar Ibrahim, in the 2008 election.

But it may well be Umno’s own arrogance, its notorious inferiority complex and take-no-prisoners mentality that has caused BN’s downfall.

Discreetly, the BN partners have blamed their slide on Umno’s insistence in stamping its ‘superiority’ and ‘big brother-status’ on the coalition. Through the decades, Umno made it clear the only views that mattered were those of the Malays, who form some 50% of the country’s 28 million population.

Leaders from the MCA, Gerakan and MIC have at various times blamed Umno’s reliance on racial politics for preventing the coalition from embracing multiracialism. Umno’s seige mentality and its compulsion to rub Malay rights in the face of the minority groups were touted as main reasons for the non-Malays fleeing to support the opposition - leaving MCA, Gerakan and MIC shell parties reviled by their respective communities.

The Malays' turn to dump BN

Now into the last lap to the 13th general election, which must be held before April 2013, what is clearly visible is the sharp loss in Malay support for Umno. This is reflected in the nationwide momentum gained by the recently formed 'Anything But Umno' movement led by civil rights activists and targeting ordinary Malaysians.

It is indeed bad news for Najib as he can no longer depend on the non-Malay vote either. It also underscores that his strategy to keep the Malays tied to Umno through various right-wing and scare-mongering tactics have backfired.

Umno generally enjoys an average 55% support from the Malays, with the balance 45% going to the Pakatan’s PAS and PKR parties. But Umno is now caught in a chicken-and-egg situation. Its leaders recognise the seriousness of the problems the party faces in both declining Malay support and all-but-gone non-Malay confidence.

But in Umno's panic to retain power, infighting has broken out and this has exacerbated the exodus to the opposition. Opportunists who see the chance to finally break the hold of the old-boys club within Umno are also mounting bids to challenge the status quo in the party.

The main factions in Umno are currently those led former premiers Mahathir Mohamad and Abdullah Badawi. Waiting in the wings are smaller groups led by deputy prime minister Muhyiddin Yassin and Najib’s cousin Hishammuddin Hussein.

“In some ways, the struggle inside Umno will be more important than the struggle between Umno and Pakatan Rakyat. The hardliners, the right wing inside Umno will become more vocal and anti-Najib. Mahathir, Muhyiddin, Hisham, Ibrahim Ali will all cause Najib even more trouble,” said Malott.

“Depending on how the political winds blow, some of the more moderates inside Umno might decide to cross over, or be lukewarm in their support of Umno, sit the election out and see what happens.”

Rigged elections now the only hope for BN

Indeed, with Umno poised to sink like the Titanic, all that the Pakatan needs to do is to stay the course. GE-13 is for the Pakatan lose. However, few Malaysians expect Najib and Umno, especially Mahathir Mohamad, to stand by and respect the voters’ decision.

Chances are high that Najib will allow the Attorney General to appeal the court’s recent acquittal of Anwar from trumped-up sodomy charges.

Already, Mahathir has given the indication that he supported an appeal, even though such a move could destroy the credibility and goodwill gained by the country and the Najib administration when Anwar was adjudged “not guilty”.

Malott pointed out that more than anything else, Malaysians needed to ensure that the BN carried out electoral reforms before GE-13, or face worsening democracy in the country.

“If the Government pursues an appeal against Anwar, it will strengthen the opposition in terms of public sentiment. It will tie up Anwar’s time in court, however, and make it harder for him to deal with issues inside the opposition and campaign, simply because he would have to deal with legal issues and sit in court all day,” said Malott.

“I said that I do not like to make predictions, but I do believe that if electoral reforms are put in place, and the elections are fair, then the opposition most likely will come to power. They almost did it in 2008, with one hand tied behind their back. I say this as an analyst of Malaysian politics, and not because of any personal feelings.”

Malaysia Chronicle