BN BREAK-UP, NEW MERGERS & OTHER POSSIBILITIES: Malaysia poised for a paradigm shift

In the field of politics, every politician worth their salt knows that he or she has no permanent friends and no permanent enemies, as the only constant in the arena of politics is change and these changes can be witnessed to almost on a day-to-day basis in Malaysian politics.

Anything can happen overnight or over a brief period of time in politics. Witness how over 55 years since the formation of the nation the numerous changes that have taken place especially over the last decade since the end of the Mahathir regime.

Too much stress on Malay chauvinism

Ever since the departure of former premier Mahathir Mohamad, there now loom exciting possibilities and permutations for political parties to experiment and work out with each other.

With these new and emerging scenarios, it now looks likely and in all probability that within the governing political coalition of Barisan National, UMNO has become increasingly isolated.

In all probability, the likelihood of BN being dismantled in the near future is quite evident. BN is set to see the withdrawal of non-UMNO parties owing to the fact that UMNO’s flexing of its muscles and their stress on Malay chauvinism is beginning to wear down its partners within the national coalition.

What is likely to emerge from this scenario, is a grouping together of non-UMNO parties from BN, and a possibility of this group switching over to join forces with Pakatan Rakyat is being seen as a strategic move that is impending.

New grouping likely to emerge

MCA, MIC, Gerakan and the other non-UMNO political parties within BN are expected to stage a walkout on BN owing to the uncompromising stance of UMNO that they are given the right to dominate and have a stranglehold on the others as they have the largest share in terms of numbers.

This bullying of non-UMNO partners by UMNO has reached a level whereby the insolence and sheer arrogance by UMNO leaders towards the other political parties within BN has reached breaking point at present.

Insiders say the parties are keen to join up with the Pakatan led by Opposition Leader Anwar Ibrahim, but fear the perceived extremism of the Islamist PAS.

However, as Pakatan supporters point out, if the DAP can get along with PAS since Pakatan's set-up 3 years ago and work together on a wide array of issues, such a fear may be unnecessary.

Extremism shown by UMNO and PAS

Relations amongst the three Pakatan parties PKR, PAS and DAP are much more cordial than in the BN. However, it cannot be denied that what is being witnessed by Malaysians is that both UMNO and PAS have shown signs of extremism in their own ways.

Whether they can face up to this or not, both UMNO and PAS are considered extreme by many Malaysians because they hover between opposite ends of the political spectrum.

While UMNO is viewed as devilish in their ploys, PAS sometimes comes across as being too angelic to be true.

While UMNO attracts those that are self-seeking and greedy, PAS comes across as being unable to connect with the mindset of the current millennium preferring to seek direction from the Middle East, which despite its huge wealth is socially and democratically backwards.

The bottom line as it stands is that the political ploys and stance of both UMNO and PAS have caused them to be distanced from the mainstream of Malaysian life.

If this continues, Malaysians - mostly young voters - will soon start to see PAS as being a political liability in the future, much like how they view UMNO now.

Not another marriage

There is good news though for PAS supporters as the party is making huge efforts to change that are paying off. Whether it succeeds in shedding its old and worn coat for a new one remains to be seen.

But rather than judge it on recent fiascoes including a startling ban on unmarried couples sitting together at the cinemas - which has since been reversed - Malaysians should take heart in that PAS is no longer feared as 'that fringe party of Islamic fundamentalists'.

While admittedly still very conservative, PAS has been able to successfully enter the mainstream of Malaysian politics. PAS, the party, has shown its human side by ardently supporting many civil rights campaigns and has also been a fierce fighter of corruption.

The question is whether PAS can remain within the mainstream of politics or will it allow the ultra-conservative in the party to regain the upper hand.

As UMNO should remember that not all Malays are greedy and corrupt, perhaps PAS too should accept that not all Malays believe it is the sole arbiter of how Islam should be embraced and practiced.

There are some who warn that while Pakatan supporters cheer an exodus of BN leaders over to their side, PAS might stun everyone by forming an alliance with UMNO. This is a marriage PAS has entered into before but while its divorce was extremely unpleasant and damaging, recent overtures from a desperate UMNO cannot be neglected in any analysis of possible scenarios in Malaysia's political future.

Nonetheless, as Pakatan leaders including from the DAP have pointed out, this would be an extremely unlikely scene.

Attractive to more Malaysians 

PKR  - the mildest-mannered of the trio - has come across looking as a very viable alternative as they profess to seek the middle ground which most Malays and also non-Malays view with favor.

PKR is beginning to not only be seen as a favorable party with more and more Malays, they are also looking to offer a warm welcome to the other two major racial components of Malaysia, the Chinese and the Indians.

While the Chinese and Indians are beginning to unite and to seek solidarity that they might have a stronger and better representation in government and the affairs of the country, they are being joined by large numbers of Malays who also seek for the common good of Malaysia.

While at present overtly there appears to be a dislike for each other, owing to minor, insignificant political differences, in reality, PKR, DAP, MCA, MIC, Gerakan and other political parties are beginning to covertly warm up to each other.

The possibility that they might spring a major surprise and band together to form a new national coalition which Barisan Nasional did under first prime minister Tunku Abdul Rahman's leadership during the pro-Merdeka era is looking as a very good and strong possibility. If it happens, it is more likely to take place after the general election is over.

In the event of Sabah and Sarawak, Pakatan has already been holding out the olive branch to political parties that might want to consider the possibility of tying up with them to gain a greater stronghold on the East Malaysian states.

Helping them in this direction, unwittingly, is the stubborn resistance of UMNO and PAS hardliners wanting to implement “hudud” and other draconian laws which Malaysians of all walks of life fear too much to even believe of such scenarios.

Anwar must seize the opportunity to seal a new order

The stage looks set for Anwar Ibrahim to play the leading role of sitting down to engage in talks and discussions with the various political groups to come together to form a bond and reach a consensus that is agreeable to all.

The Opposition must seize the day, follow up on the political tsunami of 2008 and further crystallize the people's wishes for reform in the next election.

Anwar must be bold and brave enough to play the role of a modern-day Tunku  and be willing to bring a real Merdeka or Independence to Malaysians by ensuring that the nation is united as back in 1957 with the ideals of Tunku for a just and equitable nation to flourish in a healthy manner.

It is obvious that the time is ripe for Anwar to venture into these possibilities, if not before the 13^th GE, then to keep it at the back of his mind and to work out the game plan to the satisfaction of all in the near future.

Malaysia Chronicle