Negeri Sembilan: Feudings in the Federation

A little bit of history.

In the 14^th century, Sumateran people from the land of the Minangkabau began to settle down in the state today known as Negeri Sembilan. They came through Melaka and reached places like Rembau. The Minangkabaus brought their superior civilization to bear on the local Asli tribes. Intermarriages between them resulted in the creation of the Biduanda Clan. The biduanda clan eventually emerged as the successors of the ruling tribes and established the rule that territorial chiefs of Negeri Sembilan are only selected from within the Biduanda clan.

The chieftains were originally called Penghulus and later as Undang. Before the arrival of the Paramount Chief Negeri Sembilan formed part of the Johor Sultanate who gave the title Yang di-Pertuan Besar Negeri Sembilan to the Paramount Chief.

The name Negeri Sembilan was first used in the 16^thcentury to refer to the federation of states founded and opened by these MInangkabau people in the Malay Peninsula. In ancient times, the Malay Kingdom encompasses states and territories in Indonesia, Philippines, Thailand and even Kampuchea. People moved from one location to another with much ease and fluidity recognizing no artificial boundaries. The Malay kingdom was one united by kinship, common religion, customs and language.

Internecine feuds seemed to beset Negeri Sembilan right from its beginning when powerful chiefs from the biduanda clan jostled for paramount leadership. To avoid the debilitating feuds, the chiefs sent for a uniting figure from Pagar Ruyung. From that day until now, the paramount chief is known as YamTuan Besar or Yang diPertuan Besar Negeri Sembilan.

While the feuds of old are settled, its modern day version of a house perpetually divided resurface in the form of intense political rivalries. The old chiefs of old are now replaced by UMNO warlords.

Negeri Sembilan has 8 parliamentary seats. 3 are currently held by PR. Seremban(DAP), Rasah(DAP) and Telok Kemang(PKR). In 2008, the average swing in favor of the opposition was 14%. That is, on the average support for the opposition has increased by 14%. Each parliamentary seat exhibits varying degrees of opposition support.

In all my previous analysis, I have included the moderating impacts of what UMNO has done. Giving money, bribing people, bringing in phantom voters and all that. Have they succeeded? Realistically they did but only to a limited extent.

The gains made by UMNO by the only way Najib knows how- buying his and UMNO way through have been cancelled out recently by events Najib cannot control. Najib is not bigger than the market.

The FELDA listing is now being questioned by settlers. It’s also being questioned by non FELDA villagers. How come they do not get anything yet they face the same rising cost of living as FELDA people?  Now that the FGV share price is below RM 5.00, that gives the settler, a premium of 45 sen. With 810 shares, the value the settler holds is RM365 gross, deduct RM200, he holds shares worth RM 165.

Najib announces RM 43 million hari raya dividends. As there are 112,000 settlers, each settler family gets RM 300 plus.

The other Malays must look at what’s happening.  If the settler whom Najib regards as an important ally who forms his vanguard in his transformation plan can be deceived like that, what of the ordinary Malay villagers? The settlers on whose name those elite groups make money are getting a pittance. That’s what UMNO is doing to the Malays. The settler gives up all assets belonging to FELDA and he is left with his own 10 acre plot. The plot must later on be divided among the children according to Islam’s Faraid laws. They are going to live off land which is getting smaller and smaller. Settlers give up potential rights on 360,000 hectares which could support 80,000 new settlers.

UMNO doesn’t care about you. They care about milking the FELDA cow.

The people of Negeri Semblan can use what happens to FELDA as on object lesson. Negeri Sembilan has large FELDA areas.

Then there are local issues that are tearing UMNO Negeri Sembilan apart. The UMNO liaison chief who is the MB doesn’t command a united house. Isa Samad the former MB can’t wait to have his hands on Mat Hassan’s throat.  There is too much in-fighting. Mat Hassan is dismissive of Rais Yatim as well of Shaziman Abu Mansor who is seen as a potential MB material and therefore of direct potent threat to his post.

The MB’s older brother is seen as the local version of Rasputin controlling and dictating Mat Hassan’s every move and getting himself involved in the management of the state. Azman Hassan who is a former corporate man may have ruffled too many feathers in UMNO Negeri Sembilan. Ishak Ismail, the Seremban UMNO chief is a powerful warlord whose main preoccupation seems to be ousting Mat Hassan from helming the state. If Mat Hassan continues to be UMNO’s commander in the next GE, not only Negeri Sembilan will lose the 4 parliament seats but the state will end up with PR.

Gemas has emerged as the most notorious district in Negeri Sembilan. It is home to the RM250million financial scandal.  People of Negeri Sembilan will also not forget that Gemas is also the other half in the equally scandalous double tracking project linking the town with JB.

With all UMNO has done, they most certainly has regained lost ground. Can they recover all? Perhaps they can regain 5% and issues after issues come out to discredit UMNO.

Most importantly I have made the assumption that PR, after all the gains and inroads they made in 2008, has done NOTHING. What if they have fortified the gains they made and in many cases increase them further?

It’s Armageddon for UMNO.

	PARLIAMENT	% support for opposition 2004	% support for opposition in 2008	Vote swing %	If vote swing is 9%	If vote swing is same as in 2008
1	JELEBU	27	28	4	37	32
2	JEMPOL	31	33	6	42	39
3	SEREMBAN	43	51	19	60	70
4	KUALA PILAH	31	33	6	42	39
5	RASAH	51	60	18	69	78
6	REMBAU	36	43	19	52	62
7	TELOK KEMANG	38	51	34	60	85
8	TAMPIN	27	30	11	39	41
					4	4

State’s average vote swing to opposition: 14%.

Since 2004, there has been an overall increase of support for the opposition.

But let’s give the benefit of doubt to UMNO. That with all the deception, bribery, cash handouts, daily propaganda they have done, they manage to regain 5 percentage points. That leaves a 9% credit to the opposition.

If each parliamentary seat is given a 9% vote swing, PR can still win 4 parliamentary seats. Rembau the seat of UMNO Youth chief is set to go. Anthony Loke is entrenched in Rasah. Seremban has always been a traditional seat for DAP. Telok Kemang will be retained by PKR.

It would be interesting to field Aspan Alias in Rembau to take on KJ if he is lucky to be retained as moves are underway by unseen UMNO old hands to kick him out. In any case KJ has announced he doesn’t want to contest.

Or as a powerful symbolic gesture, field Aspan in Seremban.

If PR can offer quality and credible candidates in Jempol and Kuala Pilah, these two are possible seats for PR.

The people of Negeri Sembilan: think of all the land Isa Samad sold off. Think of the contracts and businesses gobbled up by Mat Hassan and his brother and crony friends.

Orang2 Melayu Negeri Sembilan- Do you still want to vote UMNO? Not voting UMNO doesn’t erase your Malayness and doesn’t cancel out your Muslim-ness.

Posted by sakmongkol AK47