The season of the FROGS: Najib won't do better than Badawi in GE-13

Suddenly, nothing is certain nor sacred anymore and the future is entirely up for grabs by anyone willing to risk a gamble on the odds. The alternative is being consigned to the dustbin of history. The trick lies in connecting the dots in time. After all, we pass this way only once.

The essence, in short, is in the timing as even acknowledged by the chaos theory of management and crisis managers.

It cannot be denied that the ruling Barisan Nasional, despite the absence of a definite ideology but only a Confucianism of sorts, has made a most lucrative career for long – indeed too long – out of being political opportunists of the highest order. Perhaps it’s only too true that a people get a Government that they deserve. There’s also something to be said for the fact that you can bluff some of the people some of the time but not all the people all the time. Every dog has its day.

The Book of Genesis warns us that there’s time and tide in the affairs of men . . . a time to be born, a time to die, a time to be happy, a time to weep, a time to sow and a time to reap . . . The ancient Hindus saw it all as Karma which unlike how it’s interpreted by the self-serving is neither positive nor negative but neutral. It’s our human perceptions that colour Karma as good, bad, evil, ugly and beautiful.

Cambridge University physicist Dr Stephen William Hawking meanwhile continues to preach that “the only predictable property of the universe is chaos. The universe will continue to surprise us”. How much more will it be in the affairs of humanity, a manifestation and microcosm of the universe.

The season of the frogs coming very soon

Change at a macro level comes but seldom, and when it comes it’s sudden. The more things change, the more they remain the same at the micro level. Read: it will be the season for political frogging, left, right and centre.

Even all the surveys and random polls indicate that Prime Minister Mohd Najib Abdul Razak’s popularity consistently hovers between 60 and 70 per cent, less than the 71 per cent his predecessor enjoyed on the eve of the political tsunami of Sat 8 Mar, 2008. His coalition is not doing “so well” as him. Let’s face it and acceptable the “unpalatable” fact: Umno is universally unpopular and the BN, its less reviled lapdog, is not far off.

All this means that BN can only continue to swear by Confucianism’s emphasis on stability above all at the risk of leading Malaysia back to the Stone Age. This is the fate that befell China which was too weak to resist the western imperialist powers and colonialists who knocked on her doors and dragged it out of her policy of isolationism at heavy cost in life’, limb, dignity and national treasure.

Najib will not do better than Badawi in the polls

Again, all this means that Najib would do no better than Badawi, in fact even slightly worse, come the 13^th General Election which must be held by April/May next year but can be delayed until Oct/Nov if Parliament’s five-year term expires without dissolution.

An Oct/Nov GE next year requires an extraordinary leap of faith on Najib’s part and a suspension of disbelief in general.

Here, the Prime Minister needs to demonstrate that there’s method in his madness and that he can eventually ensure that the Opposition Alliance in particular, Pakatan Rakyat (PR), wrests defeat out of the jaws of victory. It’s no longer feasible for the BN to belabour in delusion that it can wrest victory from the jaws of looming defeat, if not in seat numbers, most certainly in the popular vote count.

It would be unthinkable for a Government to remain in power if its popular vote count is than its majority in Parliament. Therein lies the BN’s dilemma since a more popular Opposition would take to the streets in sheer numbers to force the ruling party from power and incarcerate the guilty and the stubborn.

Najib making hay while the sun shines

Alternatively, a five-year Parliament can only mean that Najib is not that naïve and has resigned himself to the looming possibility that he will only be a one-term Prime Minister and might as well make the most of Badawi’s term, “making hay while the sun shines”,  and take his chances in Oct/Nov next year. A week, they say, is a long term in politics. Besides, hope springs eternal in the human breast.

The BN can only continue to win by default despite Najib appearing to dish out “goodies”, albeit on paper.

For one, there’s no indication where the money is coming from, there being no allocation anywhere, and how these tally with the Malaysia Plan and the National Budget. Meanwhile, the money is running out as the national debt to GDP ratio reaches 55 per cent and it’s not possible to raise that ceiling without a two-third majority in parliament voting in favour.

Read: the gravy train is coming to a screeching halt.

Hence, there is no shortage of people who want to jump on the bandwagon for change, if not reform. Sabah may be the tip of the iceberg and Sarawak may not be that far behind as money laundering charges hang like the sword of Damocles over Chief Minister Abdul Taib Mahmud. He will have to buy political protection to save his dynasty if his sins can be forgiven on Earth, if not in heaven.

Umno, if not BN, should in fact be in panic mode as it runs out of time and options but only if it can notice the bandwagon effect gearing up to gather steam and momentum to cruise to a modest victory in Putrajaya for new players from both sides of the political divide and a changing of the guards.

Still, BN continues to remain in a state of extreme denial as it buries its head in the sand like the proverbial ostrich

Barisan Nasional too long in power, the Gods have decided

A reading of the Oracle shows that the Gods in the very heavens are turning against the ruling party, having finally decided that 55 years in power is far beyond any period that any ruling party should have anywhere in the world. If BN is not ushered out by the people sometime in the very near future, it’s a dead certainty that the Gods themselves will act to sweep out the ruling party from power sooner rather than later.

True, the communists were in power for 75 years in the USSR, the Evil Empire of Ronald Reagan, and the reds are still in the saddle in Beijing after having seized power through the barrel of the gun in 1949 and in Cuba.

These are aberrations and besides Malaysia is a member of the free world although many will beg to disagree. In any case, since we go through the charade of national elections every few years, it can be argued that there’s no basis for comparison.

It’s a brave new world out there and there’s much excitement in the air as many tremble in fear even as an equal number have come around to the thinking that there’s hope after all for them after their extended spell in the political wilderness living on hope and wishful thinking. They are ready to come in from the cold.

The control freaks everywhere are running for cover as the past catches up with them in the present to haunt their future, a miserable one at that.

Umno/BN should be in panic mode over emerging trends

Umno/BN should be in panic mode over the longterm situation in Sabah, Sarawak and the short-term situation in Peninsular Malaysia.

In Peninsular Malaysia, the status quo remains despite the best efforts of Umno, Perkasa and Mahathir Mohamad.

In Sabah and Sarawak, BN will never be able to repeat its performance of 2008.

If the GE was held today, ten Chinese and/or urban seats in Sabah (3) and Sarawak (7) will fall to the Dap.

The longer the GE is delayed, the worse for BN in Sabah, Sarawak but not necessarily for Najib.

At the same time, there's no guarantee the situation in Peninsular Malaysia will improve for BN in the near future.

PR states may not dissolve if GE held this year

There are other pressures on Najib.

The Umno Assembly will be held in Nov this year. Mahathir and Najib’s over-ambitious deputy, Muhyiddin Yassin, may be tempted to engineer a no confidence motion against him as Umno president to pave the way for Mukhriz Mahathir, the son.

If the GE is held in Sept this year as the local pundits are predicting without asking Najib, there’s no guarantee either that PR states will dissolve at the same time. This will further compound the odds against BN but hand Najib another good excuse to further delay the GE.

Malaysia Chronicle